Wow. I love me some JoPo, but 1st ballot HOFer? Borderline at this point, I'd think. His career started late and his defense hurts him (and though he has the rings, his overall playoff performance has actually been poor, in a pretty large amount of playing time). I'd like to see him make it, and I think he can if he has another couple of typical Jorge years. But right now?

As for Varitek, great trade by the much-maligned Duquette, no? Switch hitting catchers with (some) power & patience are rare. He's gotten old, but then most catchers do. That's where Posada's pre-catcher (2B) days help, as well as the (possibly misguided) platooning with Girardi at the start of his major league career.

I think Jorge's a total shoo-in.

And yes, for acquiring Manny, Pedro, D-Lowe and Varitek alone, Duquette should be remembered fondly by Sox fans.

While Posada may deserve to be a Hall of Famer, it seems incongruent to me that Jorge would be a "first ballot" choice when Ted Simmons received just 17 votes (3.7% of the total) in his one and only year on the ballot.

Although Posada's career OPS+ (124) is higher than Simba's (117), the former has not gone through a decline phase in his career whereas the latter suffered through an 84 OPS+ in his final five seasons. Importantly, from 1968-1983 (a period that coincided with his catching career), Simmons had an OPS+ of 124 in 1,954 games and 8,094 plate appearances. Posada's exact OPS+ has been achieved over 1,594 games and 6,312 plate appearances. It is my belief that the decline phase of a player's career should not detract from how good he was at his peak or his value throughout the bulk of his playing days. As a result, I contend that Simmons was every bit as productive as Posada and perhaps more so as suggested by Win Shares (315 to 245). Even if we subtract the WS from Ted's decline phase in 1984-1988, he would have a total of 293, which is 48 more than Posada, who would need to produce at last year's pace for 2 1/2 additional years to catch the reduced total for Simmons or nearly four years to match his career output.

Even Carlton Fisk (368 WS) and Gary Carter (337) weren't voted into the HoF on the first ballot. They had significantly more career Win Shares and higher peak seasons than Posada. Interestingly, Carter also had a 124 OPS+ from 1974-1986, a period that encompassed more games (1,688) and plate appearances (6,900) than Posada thus far.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) tells a similar story. According to Sean Smith's database (which is updated through 2008), here is how Fisk, Carter, Simmons, and Posada fare:

Fisk - 67.5 (62nd all time)
Carter - 66.2 (73rd)
Simmons - 50.8 (161st)
Posada - 41.6 (256th)

Per Fangraphs, Posada had a WAR of 4.0 in 2009. Therefore, his career total is now about 45.6, which would sill rank outside the top 200.

After this review, it's not at all clear to me that Posada is a Hall of Famer, much less a first ballot type.

"That's because when fans look at Posada's plaque, they will always associate Varitek with him."

Really? REALLY? People aren't going to look at his plaque and think about Jeter, Pettitte and Rivera, along with the five World Series that they won? Honestly, when I think of Posada, Varitek never even comes close to entering my mind. Red Sox fans might compare their team and their players to the Yankees, but the reverse isn't true.

Rich: That's a good, thorough analysis and one that shows how unjust Simmons' exclusion is. Given Posada's performance this season, I don't think a precipitous decline phase is necessarily coming any time soon. It will come for sure, but not for a little while and it might be more gradual than some others. I don't think a number of 55 WAR or so is out of the question. Couple his performance record with his 4 rings and NYC spotlight and I think he glides in.

Quotemeister: Sure, we'll think of his teammates first but hell, all of those guys except maybe Pettitte will have their own plaques right near Posada's. Any reflection at all of Posada's career, his most memorable games, the era in which he competed, his opposition, will conjure up Varitek. They're both switch hitting catchers who have had good, long careers playing in the game's highest profile rivalry, winning championships, etc.

Sully: I still think you're wrong. Shoot, I went to Georgia Tech and remember Varitek when he played there, and I *STILL* don't think of him when I think of Posada. In fact, I think about Posada's charity work with craniosynostosis (his kid has it) before I think of Varitek. I think eternally linking these two players together, at least from the Posada point of view, is altogether wrong.

It's a fair point, QM. Didn't mean to sound like I was speaking for everybody. Obviously I am not speaking for you.

I definitely associate Jorge with Tek and Tek with A-Rod. Two degrees to A-Rod. Always comes back to him. A-Rod beat Tek in that fight, no matter what Sox fans say.

I'm not sure I'd vote for Jorge to be a HOFer either. Rich made a strong case. And from what I've seen, Jorge's really not good defensively, which is often neglected when his HOF candidacy is considered.

Quotemeister: I think the link between Posada and Varitek is apt. They have had parallel careers at the same position for the biggest rivalry in the game, if not all sports. That alone makes me think of them together. Add in the fact that they are switch-hitters and some of the other points Sully made and the link between the two seems inescapable to me.

Catchers of the '90's/'00's are clearly Piazza and Pudge. Posada is at best the Duke to their Mickey and Willie. Varitek =? More like Minnie Minoso in comparison, certainly good enough to get invited to the party but not at the same table. Without looking at WAR stats I might have thought of Javy Lopez before thinking of Varitek.

Gilbert, it's the ancillary stuff, not a pure quality comparison. Heck, Mike Stanley was probably better than Varitek, too.

Varitek and Posada:

- both catch
- switch hit
- won WS titles
- played for just one team
- are on either side of sports' biggest rivalry
- are contemporaries

"Catchers of the '90's/'00's are clearly Piazza and Pudge. Posada is at best the Duke to their Mickey and Willie. "

Pudge has a career OPS+ of 108.

He had a great 7 year run from 98-2004 but even then his OPS+ was in the 120-130 range primarily with that one ridiculous year he had where he put up an OPS+ of 155.

But over his whole career pudge hasn't played close to the rate at which Posada has.

If you want to talk about his arm that's fine. But he was never considered great at calling a game or handling pitchers. And most of this conversation has been about the respective offensive performances of each player.

My feeling, from the Boston side, is that there ain't no Varitek and Posada. Nowhere near Jeter & Nomah, or Fisk/Munson for that matter.

Hell, it's not even Papelbon/Rivera.

"The 1950's in New York come to mind, when Duke Snider, Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays were all playing center field for their respective clubs."

Uh... not really. Joe retired in 1951. I'm pretty sure the CF'er for the Yanks was some kid named Mickey Mantle.

Ugh, a ridiculously gross oversight on my part, algionfriddo. No excuses.

I would change it but I deserve to have it remain there under my byline.

Thanks for pointing it out.

Ok, I changed it. Couldn't stand it anymore!

The reason Ted Simmons isn't in the Hall of Fame is because he had a HORRIFIC defensive reputation. That might've been unfair... Bill James has him as an average catcher.

I would expect anyone who's going to trumpet career WAR numbers to also explain that Simmons started his career as a full-time catcher at the age of 21 while Posada didn't get 500 PAs in a season until he was 28. In addition, Posada's peak numbers are better than Simmons. His defense was better than Mike Piazza's and his offense was better than Pudge Rodriguez'.

If one is going to judge Posada solely on career stats, then he isn't HoF worthy. If someone is going to weigh "rate" stats more heavily, then I don't see how Posada is kept out. I do agree that he's certainly not a first ballot HoFer.

Since this was posted only a few days ago, I just wanted to make a quick correction. Jorge has 5 rings, not 4. So it's Jorge 5 Varitek 2.

Also, there's no question, with the Yankees' current championship, that it's the Yankees and nobody else that are the team of the decade.

I haven't studied Posadas batting statistics, but as a Yankee fan since 1960, I can not get my head around the idea of Jorge Posada in the Hall of Fame. For all his accomplishments with the bat, he has always been awful at blocking the plate when a runner is coming home. He doesn't know how to properly place his feet and reaches out for the throw instead of having the throw come to him, thus saving time on the play. Plus, by reaching for the throw (from throws from the right side of the field in particular), his weight is shifted so that the runner easily bowls him over or forces Posada to drop the ball. And don't get me started on his terrible baserunning.....it wasn't just this years playoffs.

"Posada can go cold, he can be quiet for periods of time, but it's always his own doing. He is never, ever over-matched."

Now, see, that's just silly. I suggest you check out Posada's career numbers against Pedro Martinez and you'll see a fine example of an overmatched player.

And that's even including Pedro's decline period, which accounts for the decent slugging numbers. but look at that batting average!

I bring this up because I remember that there was nobody Pedro owned in his prime more than Posada. And I mean that fully...he was number one in my mind and every other batter matchup was a distant second at best. And these weren't just outs either, it seemed like Pedro K'd Posada 2-3 times a game every time out.

Peter -

Opponents have batted .214/.276/.337 against Pedro for his career. Posada hit .183/.290/.450. It's not great, but it's not bad against Pedro either.

Oh and he absolutely owned Pedro in both the 2003 and 2004 ALCS.