April 05, 2010
Get Your 2010 Results Before the Season Even Begins
By The Baseball Analysts Staff

Notwithstanding the New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox made-for-TV opener Sunday night, the 2010 season gets underway today. Although they say the games are played on the field and not on paper, that's not about to stop us from making our paper — err, cyber-based — predictions right here and now. We recognize our predictions are bound to fail more often than not but, hey, we're gonna go on record anywhere.

Feel free to call us out in October should you wish (heck, feel free to call us out now if you are so inclined), but we're not going to pay attention unless you go out on a limb by listing your forecasts in the comments below.

Rich Sully Sky Jeremy Dave Consensus
AL East BOS NYY NYY NYY NYY NYY
TB BOS BOS TB BOS BOS
NYY TB TB BOS TB TB
BAL BAL TOR BAL BAL BAL
TOR TOR BAL TOR TOR TOR
AL Central CWS MIN DET MIN MIN MIN
MIN CWS MIN CLE CWS CWS
DET CLE CLE CWS CLE CLE
CLE DET CWS DET DET DET
KC KC KC KC KC KC
AL West LAA LAA TEX TEX TEX TEX
TEX TEX LAA SEA LAA LAA
SEA SEA SEA LAA SEA SEA
OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
AL Wild Card TB BOS BOS TB BOS BOS
NL East PHI PHI PHI ATL ATL PHI
ATL ATL ATL PHI PHI ATL
FLA FLA FLA NYM FLA FLA
NYM NYM NYM FLA NYM NYM
WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS
NL Central STL STL STL STL STL STL
CIN CIN MIL CIN CIN CIN
MIL CHC CHC MIL MIL MIL
CHC MIL CIN CHC CHC CHC
HOU HOU HOU HOU PIT HOU
PIT PIT PIT PIT HOU PIT
NL West COL COL LAD LAD COL COL
LAD LAD COL COL LAD LAD
SF SF SF ARI SF SF
ARI ARI ARI SF ARI ARI
SD SD SD SD SD SD
NL Wild Card LAD ATL ATL PHI LAD ATL
ALCS Champ BOS BOS NYY NYY NYY NYY
NLCS Champ COL STL PHI ATL ATL ATL
World Series Champ BOS BOS NYY NYY ATL BOS/NYY

Rich: I believe the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees are the three best teams in the majors, yet only two of them will make the postseason. New York could just as easily finish first as third. Same goes for Boston and Tampa Bay. All three clubs will win at least 90 games with the division winner and the wild card exceeding 95. The AL and World Series champion will also come from this division. The rest of the teams in the league know they need to win their division in order to qualify for the postseason. Second place in the AL West or Central won't sniff an opportunity to compete in the ALDS.

Over in the NL, I believe the Cardinals will win the Central as handily as any division titleist. I'm not nearly as convinced with respect to the East and West, as both appear to be two-way races between the Phillies/Braves and the Rockies/Dodgers. One of these four teams will earn the wild card. It says here that Colorado will prevail in the NLCS and meet Boston in a repeat of the 2007 World Series with the Red Sox winning it once again but not via a sweep as before. One other thing: Mike Lowell will not be the WS MVP in 2010!

Sully: I don't have much conviction about my American League East or West picks. The top three in the AL East look like the top-3 in all of baseball to me, but Philadelphia could lay claim to a top-3 spot as well. I think the last place team in the AL West will be a lot closer to the division winner in terms of quality than the 2nd place team will be to the respective division winners in either the AL or NL Central. I believe St. Louis, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota will all manage to win their divisions without much of a challenge.

Who knows on the post-season? Any number of teams could make a run if they qualify thanks to top-heavy pitching staffs. Would you want to face Seattle in a five-gamer? For a World Series prediction, I will call a 2004 Fall Classic rematch and say Boston takes their 3rd World Series title in 7 seasons.

Sky: Yes, I'm going with the rematch of the Phillies and Yankees in the World Series once again. I think it's hard to say that anyone will come close to the Yankees and Red Sox as the best two teams in baseball. The AL Central is a complete crapshoot, but I'm going with the Tigers, partly because they seem like they are trying to win now, and if they are in it they'll likely to acquire spend the pieces they need midseason. I could really be convinced to go with any of the four top teams in that division though. In the AL West, I like the revamped Rangers, and I think the Mariners were playing a bit over their heads last season. They've made some nice pickups, but I don't think it will be enough to carry them to the top. In the NL, time is running out for the Phillies' potential dynasty, but they should have enough to win the NL again this year. I like the Braves and their young pitching to win the wild card and contend for the East. I'm not real high on the Cardinals this season, because their two aces will regress, but I can't be convinced to go with any other NL Central team this year. Finally in the West, I'm betting that Manny Ramirez can hold up one more season and carry LA to another division crown. I don't see them getting past the Phillies in the playoffs however.

Jeremy: I mainly go against the grain by picking the Braves to win the NL East. I think the Phillies are getting old, and I think with Jason Heyward, the Braves are poised to go on another 14-division-title streak. After watching J.D. Drew take a called strike three last night, I just don't see how I could allow myself to put the Red Sox in the playoffs. And the Rockies seem to be a trendy pick, but the Dodgers have a guy I like to call Vin Scully. No big deal.

Dave: The Yankees are the best team in the league, but I went with an upset in the World Series to make things a little fun. Atlanta's two young phenoms will bust out and the team will have a great year. In the AL West things will break Texas's way, they will build on their 87-win season last year and win the division. The AL and NL Centrals play out similarily to how most see it, with the Minnesota and St Louis the classes of their divisions. I think the NL West will be close with Colorado narrowly edging out Los Angeles, but the Dodgers will pick up the Wild Card.

There you have it. Where did we go right or wrong? You decide.

Comments

OK, I'll play along.

AL East
NYY
TB
BOS
BAL
TOR

AL Central
MIN
CLE
CWS
DET
KC

AL West
LAA
SEA
TEX
OAK

NL East
PHI
ATL
NYM
FLA
WAS

NL Central
STL
CHC
MIL
CIN
HOU
PIT

NL West
LAD
COL
ARI
SF
SD

AL Wild Card- SEA (Oh yes)
NL Wild Card- ATL

ALCS Champ- LAA
NLCS Champ- STL

WS Champ- LAA

Texas is slightly overrated, but the rest of the AL West is underrated. The division that had the highest combined wins over .500 last year is generally better this year. Seattle nudges the Rays for the Wild card and the Angels improbably win 95+ games again.

In the NL, pretty standard. I like the Dodgers core of talent a lot, in 2011 they may be the team to beat. I give it to St. Louis as a surprise this year.

The AL Central is certainly a crapshoot, but not so much of one that the Indians will finish in second when they have zero pitching.

Why so little love for my Tigers in the weak AL Central?

They led the division all year last season, finished tied for 1st, and except for the rest of the AL lying down for the Twins to go 20-1 down the stretch, and a missed HBP call, they'd have made the playoffs.

They're not any worse this year. We see Magglio Ordonez hitting the ball with authority, something he didn't do at all last year. Adding another MVP-type bat next to Miguel Cabrera makes the lineup immediately improved.

Johnny Damon adds another bat and veteran presence to the lineup.

Austin Jackson might not hit as many solo HRs (or whiffs) as Curtis Granderson did, but he will probably be on base more and contribute to more rallies. Grandy had become a Marcus Thames, HR-or-K hitter. The extra five HRs did not offset the 50 point drop in batting average, 40 point dive in OB%, or the 80 point plunge in OPS. Even his slugging % dropped by 50 points, despite the added HR total.

The top three starters should be very solid and a healthy Jeremy Bonderman could make a real good 4th starter. We have a bonafide closer in Jose Valverde.

The Twins lost not only Joe Nathan, but the advantage of playing in the Humpty Dump.

I don't see why most are burying the Tigers in the bottom of the division.

Likewise the Giants. People and the so-called experts focus too much on the Giants offense and not enough on the Giants pitching. Truisms are fine when you are dealing with regular situations but the Giants pitching is an extreme, and when you apply Pythagorean to MLB best pitching and fielding, you can see that you don't need more than an average offense to win with that pitching.

Plus, people gloss over the other teams' losses. Who replaces Wolf's production? Who replaces Marquis's? And, really, Arizona over the Giants? How are they doing that with Webb on the DL and years past his last MLB start?