Monday morning musings:

Fred McGriff was reassigned to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' minor league camp yesterday. Is the Crime Dog's 18-year run in the majors over? If so, is he worthy of the Hall of Fame?

Before you dismiss his case, please reach back into your memory bank beyond the past ten years and think about the 40-year-old first baseman's accomplishments with the Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, and his first full year with the Atlanta Braves. Prior to the ball and players getting more juiced up, Frederick Stanley McGriff was one of the very best hitters in all of baseball.

Don't believe me? Let's take a look.

First of all, did you realize that McGriff finished in the top ten in the MVP voting for six consecutive years (1989-1994)? If you don't think that is an impressive feat, consider that Barry Bonds has never--I repeat NEVER--placed in the top ten in the MVP balloting six straight years.

Speaking of streaks, is ranking among the top nine in the league in slugging average, on-base plus slugging (OPS), and adjusted OPS+ for seven years in a row (1988-1994) any good? Get this, McGriff was actually in the top five in OPS each of those years. Over the 1988-1994 period, McGriff ranked third in the majors in OPS and fourth in slugging.

Was McGriff just a slugger? No, far from it. He also ranked in the top four in on-base percentage for four consecutive years (1989-1992).

Ahh, a rate stat guy, ehh? Wrong again, doubters. McGriff finished among the top six in total bases every year from 1988-1994 except in 1991 when he finished 11th of all things, one total base behind Bonds. The lefthanded-hitting first baseman was also third in Runs Created Above Average during this period.

All right, so the guy could rake a bit way back when. But a seven-year stretch does not a career make, you say? I dunno. You be the judge:

ALL-TIME CAREER RANKINGS:

Hits                  81st
Walks                 33rd
Runs                  86th
Runs Batted In        34th
Extra-Base Hits       30th
Home Runs             21st
Total Bases           38th
Times on Base         47th

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Yes, folks, Fred McGriff ranks among the top 100 in every one of those major hitting categories and in the top 50 in all but hits and runs scored.

But he hasn't hit 500 home runs, you argue? Well, you're right there. If that is the de facto criteria for getting into the Hall of Fame, then maybe they ought to just close the damn place down. Either that or call it the Hall of Home Runs. Induct the 19 players with 500 or more homers and be done with it. Simple. Easy. No more arguing about who's in and who's not.

Rafael Palmeiro shows up at the doorsteps of Cooperstown. "Oh, you got 500 HR?" ... (sound of the gatekeeper whistling) ... "Hey, Ernie, make room for one more." Fred McGriff shows up. "You don't have 500? Sorry, bud, this place ain't for you."

If the voters ever decide to limit Hall of Famers to those with 500 HR, then I sure as heck hope they hand me over the plaques for Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Willie Stargell, Dave Winfield, Carl Yastrzemski, Ralph Kiner, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, and Hank Greenberg (not to mention a slew of hitters who were not known for their slugging prowess). Boy, these plaques would sure look good in my collection, let me tell ya.

I can hear the naysayers now. "Yes, McGriff hit 491 HR, but he played in an era when they were so plentiful they didn't mean as much." Well, I'm not so sure about that.

The following table ranks the players by the difference in their career home run totals and the league average.

CAREER HOME RUNS (1900-2003)
DIFF BETWEEN PLAYER AND LEAGUE AVG

                                DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Babe Ruth                   622      714       92   
2    Hank Aaron                  457      755      298   
3    Barry Bonds                 426      658      232   
4    Mark McGwire                405      583      178   
5    Jimmie Foxx                 403      534      131   
6    Willie Mays                 389      660      271   
7    Lou Gehrig                  377      493      116   
8    Ted Williams                376      521      145   
9    Mel Ott                     373      511      138   
10   Mike Schmidt                367      548      181   
11   Harmon Killebrew            361      573      212   
12   Mickey Mantle               346      536      190   
13   Frank Robinson              337      586      249   
14   Willie McCovey              333      521      188   
15   Reggie Jackson              327      563      236   
16   Sammy Sosa                  317      539      222   
17   Willie Stargell             305      475      170   
T18  Eddie Mathews               285      512      227   
T18  Dave Kingman                285      442      157   
20   Ken Griffey Jr.             280      481      201   
21   Ernie Banks                 266      512      246   
22   Rafael Palmeiro             262      528      266   
23   Jose Canseco                254      462      208   
24   Johnny Mize                 252      359      107   
25   Fred McGriff                251      491      240   
26   Ralph Kiner                 247      369      122   
27   Juan Gonzalez               241      429      188   
28   Joe DiMaggio                240      361      121   
29   Hank Greenberg              239      331       92   
30   Stan Musial                 234      475      241

Source: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia

Let me say that I'm not wild about Dave Kingman, Jose Canseco, and Juan Gonzalez appearing on the above list either. But the other 26 players are either in the Hall of Fame or bound to get there shortly after retirement.

With respect to Kingman, Canseco, and Gonzalez, I don't think anyone believes that the former is in the same class as McGriff. Kingman hit home runs and did very little else. As far as Canseco and Gonzalez go, I admit there are some similarities among these three. However, McGriff's counting stats are better than Canseco's across the board, and he has superior career batting and on-base averages as well. Canseco only nudges him out in slugging average (.515 to .511). With respect to Gonzalez, he may or may not end up with comparable numbers. It all depends on whether he can rejuvenate and prolong his career.

Who else is comparable to McGriff? According to Similarity Scores, a concept introduced by Bill James in his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106), the following players can be described as "similar" or "essentially similar":

Willie McCovey (889) *
Willie Stargell (883) *
Rafael Palmeiro (863)
Andres Galarraga (855)
Billy Williams (849) *
Jeff Bagwell (829)
Chili Davis (828)
Eddie Mathews (828) *
Dwight Evans (814)
Ernie Banks (814) *

* - Signifies Hall of Famer

Of the ten comps above, five are already in the Hall of Fame. In addition, Jeff Bagwell should be a surefire HOFer and Palmeiro appears likely to gain enshrinement as well. As such, seven of McGriff's ten most similar batters have or will soon have plaques in Cooperstown.

How does McGriff compare to his fellow first basemen?

RUNS CREATED ABOVE AVERAGE
FIRST BASEMEN (1900-2003)

                                RCAA    
1    Lou Gehrig                 1247   
2    Jimmie Foxx                 985   
3    Frank Thomas                770   
4    Johnny Mize                 667   
5    Mark McGwire                665   
6    Jeff Bagwell                663   
7    Willie McCovey              606   
8    Rafael Palmeiro             562   
9    Hank Greenberg              549   
10   Jim Thome                   528   
11   Harmon Killebrew            516   
12   Dick Allen                  511   
13   Eddie Murray                490   
14   Fred McGriff                486   
15   Will Clark                  473   
16   Jason Giambi                445   
17   Bill Terry                  425

Note: The above list excludes three players who played more games at first base than any other single position, yet I feel should be classified elsewhere--Musial (OF), Pete Rose (anything but 1B), and Rod Carew (2B). It also includes Frank Thomas and Jason Giambi, both of whom may be considered more as DHs when their careers are all said and done. However, in the cases of Thomas and Giambi, they will each have enjoyed their greatest seasons as first basemen.

Other than Dick Allen, all of the players above McGriff are either in the HOF or likely to gain admittance once they become eligible. Furthermore, there are several others--including recent inductees Orlando Cepeda and Tony Perez--who fall well below McGriff's standing and yet have made their way to Cooperstown.

I'm not suggesting that McGriff belongs in the inner circle of the Hall, but I think he is certainly worthy of inclusion based on his accomplishments and rankings. No, he is not someone who jumps out at you and screams "Hall of Famer" like another contemporary by the name of Mark McGwire. By the same token, I don't think McGriff is the type of player who can be rejected flat out like so many others.

In the meantime, McGriff needs to come to grips with his more immediate future. He ceased being a productive player last year and is unlikely to find an employer willing to give him another shot as he enters the fifth decade of his life. McGriff no longer hits well enough to warrant a job as a 1B or DH. In fact, Fred's bat has slowed to such an extent that his slugging average in 2003 was a career low and the number of times he struck out was more than double his walk count for the first time ever.

The bottom line is that it's time for ol' Fred to hang 'em up. McGriff wasn't just a good player, he was a great player. Unfortunately, the operative word at the moment is the three-letter word "was", as in the past tense.

Five years from now, the Baseball Writers Association of America will decide whether he was a good player or a great one. Put me squarely in the camp of being skeptical as to whether these voters can see beyond McGriff's failure to reach 500 HR, if that ends up being the case. Remember, it's these same voters who have penalized Bert Blyleven for coming up short of the 300-win magic mark despite career totals that place him among the all-time best in strikeouts, shutouts, and several other more advanced metrics.

Perhaps Blyleven will have made it to the HOF by the time McGriff becomes eligible. If so, Bert's inclusion could go a long way toward helping tear down certain statistical barriers to entry. If Blyleven hasn't made it in by then, McGriff will undoubtedly have a difficult time overcoming those missing nine home runs. And that would be a crime, dog.

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While the media spends Spring Training looking for progress and position decisions, I find the more interesting stories to be in the youth. First, I try to keep up with members of the Rule V draft, I simply don't want to say I missed out on the next Johan Santana. Secondly, I'm going to look at the progress made by my top 50 prospect list.

Before examining the close choices that some Rule V picks will be involved in, let's look at the changes we've seen since December 15. Tampa Bay selection Alec Zumwalt and Boston choice Colter Bean have been returned to the Braves and Yankees respectively. David Mattox, a Red chosen from the New York Mets, will spend the year away from baseball with significant arm problems. Another Met, Lenny Dinardo, has not gotten in a Spring Training game yet, due to what the New York Times called 'shoulder stiffness'.

Matt White has had a tumultuous two years bouncing between the Cleveland, Boston, Seattle and Colorado bullpens. White did very well at AAA last year, but has struggled horribly since returning to Cleveland, allowing six hits in less than three innings. Frank Brooks, the southpaw once deal for Mike Williams, is also making his rounds. Brooks has not allowed a run in four Spring Training innings, split between the team that first drafted him (Oakland), and the team he is sticking with the Yankees II concept. Finally, the Cardinals have talked about how much they like Hector Luna, and Walt Jocketty is expected to make such a trade in this regard.

So that leaves thirteen players that were drafted in the Major League portion of the Rule V draft, starting with former Pirate Chris Shelton. The ex-Buc is 9/20 in camp so far, and should stick with the team. Rich Thompson, the second overall choice, will stay on this club despite just seven hits in thirty-one at-bats.

In my mind, there are four other players that are locks to make their teams: Jeff Bennett (RH, MIL), Jason Szuminski (RH, SD), Jason Grilli (RH, CHW) and Andy Fox (IF, MON). Grilli has pitched terrible with the White Sox during Spring Training, but he's often been mentioned as a candidate for the next musical. Fox is a veteran that was in the draft by a loophole, and is the kind of move that Omar Minaya is becoming paid for.

Bennett has not allowed a run in six Spring Training innings, notably due to his heavy fastball. Finally, Rod Beck's sudden disinterest sucks, but it is probably best for the team. Szminski is going to make the Padres since Beck will start tending to important family memebers.

This leaves seven players that were drafted in the Major League portion:

1. Chris Mabeus- TEX
2. Talley Haines- TOR
3. Willy Tavares- OF HOU
4. Mike Bumatay- LHP TEX
5. Jose Bautista- 3B- BAL
6. Luis Gonzalez- UT- COL
7. Lino Urdaneta- RH- DET

The latter three have all done very well in Spring Training, but there is no real place to fit them on the team's roster. The higher ranked people are struggling against the middle-class group, just like my prospect list is seeing.

Yes, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have proven themselves worthy during Spring Training thus far, but these two along with Bobby Crosby, Grady Sizemore, and especially James Loney and Travis Blackley. Loney's performance has been so good that even Baseball Prospectus has officially jumped on the bandwagon.

Edwin Jackson was told he had the fifth starter spot prior to Spring Training, but there is a problem. Jackson has allowed 10ER in 11.2IP, not exactly what I envisioned from my #1 pitching prospect. My #2, Greg Miller, is not out for the entire season but should make a noble return in August. Zack Greinke, who began camp dazzling Royal scouts, also struggled (8 hits in 4.2IP), and will start the year in AAA.

Jeremy Reed will be forced to do the same as he is only 5/30 in Spring Training thus far, definitely beneath the Aaron Rowand level. Alexis Rios was very good in thirty-four at-bats, again showing his power spike with two home runs. Rios, if moved to right field during the season, could help the team in a similar fashion to what Miguel Cabrera did last year.

Prospects and Rule V selections are guessing games, but I feel it's definitely important to evaluate both areas.

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The All-Baseball team has gathered around the table to discuss Miguel Cabrera's outlook.

I'm estimating that the talented youngster, who won't turn 21 until April, will follow up his rookie season with an even better performance in 2004. In fact, I asked the group if anyone would be willing to take the unders on the halfway point between my rate stat projections (.284/.344/.520) and those established by PECOTA (.264/.323/.439).

I'll propose the same friendly bet to my readers here. I've got the overs on .274/.333/.479.

What does your crystal ball say?

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It’s been very difficult to post this last week, I’m working extremely hard to put out pieces for the Hardball Times. Once the season starts I should get in a groove that will allow me enough time to do proper work for both, but right now I’m hard at work over there. Keep checking in here though, as I’m inclined to turn this place more “blog-like”, putting out multiple pieces a day. In the mean time, a run through each National League camp:

San Francisco: Jason Schmidt’s health is so key to this team, and he was scratched from his last start, as a ‘precaution’. San Diego likely didn’t make up 30 games on this team, but if Schmidt can’t start 30 games than it will be a tight race. Pedro Felix has added the shortstop position to his repertoire, which doesn’t look good for you few Neifi Perez supporters. This shouldn’t completely prevent Perez from getting the job, though I’m praying Felipe Alou has enough common sense to give the job to Cody Ransom, I mean, at least he’s Neifi’s younger…

San Diego: Rotoworld is reporting Brian Lawrence is having some velocity problems with that fastball, so watch out, maybe Ismael Valdes will land a spot with this team. With Lawrence and David Wells in the rotation, health could be an issue in So Cal all year long. Khalil Greene won a job by default, which I guess is nice. I think Greene will be an average shortstop, hitting about .275 with 15 home runs annually. If they were considering Rey Ordonez than that must be music to Kevin Tower’s ears, huh?

Arizona: Luis Gonzalez is a timebomb, with some given amount of time before he lands on the 60-day DL. His offensive contributions are so key that when the bomb goes off, so do the Diamondbacks’ chances. One interesting Spring Training story is the out of nowhere performance by Casey Daigle, who might now just be the favorite for the fifth spot. He’s finished by the time Edgar Gonzalez is ready, but it’s a nice human interest Spring Training piece.

Los Angeles: Paul DePodesta simply must make a deal for a hitter this Spring Training, whether it’s Jay Gibbons or Richard Hidalgo. I mean, Paul Loduca in left field? Who thinks of this stuff? I like Edwin Jackson for the fifth spot, but he’s one of the few sure things in this rotation. I mean, I think Jered Weaver is a much safer bet than his brother at this point.

Colorado: So Larry Walker is out indefinitely, leaving Rene Reyes to the outfield job that he deserves. I was a believer in Miles at second, Bellhorn at short, Atkins at third and Reyes in left, but instead the team brought in Damian Jackson, Royce Clayton, Vinny Castilla and Jeremy Burnitz. Walker is a huge piece of this team, and their quest to the NL’s worst record (and the #2 pick in the 2005 draft) has already begun.

Chicago: Despite a sore Achilles, everything is going well in Cubdom. I would like it if Juan Cruz looked a little more ready to start the season, but I guess you can’t always get what you want. And is anyone else depressed that Jimmy Anderson is going to be on the roster of the team that is Vegas’ NL favorite? Watching Sergio Mitre pitch last year made me think he would make a good reliever, and now it appears the team is going to give him a chance, as Mitre has probably moved past Todd Wellemeyer in the sixth reliever race, well ahead of Phil Rogers choice of Gary Glover.

Houston: I made a bet today, over/under on Pettite’s 2004 ERA. 4.20? What does everyone think…over or under?

St. Louis: Plenty to talk about here. First of all, Tony La Russa is talking, again, about batting the pitcher eighth in the lineup. This makes no sense to me, especially on a team that is going to have a #6 hitter as talented as Reggie Sanders. To put Mike Matheny and Matt Morris behind a good doubles slugger like Sanders is a pity, and Sanders should pay them back with about 60 runs scored.

Ray Lankford, back from the dead, looks to have snagged the left field and leadoff duties, beating out Kerry Robinson. My thinking was that the team should play Pujols in left, start John Gall at first, and give up someone for Jerry Hairston. Instead Lankford has a job, the team gives up something for Tony Womack, and Hairston is out a month. Ouch.

Milwaukee: Yes, I believe it entirely possible for the Brewers to make a run at the fourth place crown this year. Doug Melvin is doing a lousy job of moving Junior Spivey, a player that in this market should have a decent market. I mean, the Cardinals aren’t in a dire enough situation to give up former Illinois right-hander Jim Journell, are they?

Pittsburgh: Last year Bobby Hill had to try not to land the Cubs 2B job, and remarkably, succeeded. This year, despite still fighting the back problems that have bothered him for more than one year, is likely being handed the 2B and leadoff duties. Also, are the Kris Benson and Jason Kendall rumors possibly getting to this team. Benson will probably be dealt by June 1, while I don’t think Kendall is movable at this point.

Cincinnati: I really have nothing good to say here, there is just no optimism in Cincy this season. If they could possibly find a buyer for Ken Griffey, does it matter what they are asking.

Philadelphia: What is this I hear about Chase Utley possibly not making the team? OK, I can deal with Keith Ginter getting snubbed by Junior Spivey, but Utley not getting a job? Chase is a way for the Phillies to have twenty homers from the middle infield. Give Polanco the hot corner, and tell David Bell to swallow his pride and go back to the role he had with both San Francisco and Seattle.

Atlanta: Is Andy Marte this seasons’ Miguel Cabrera? Quite possibly. Luckily for the Braves there are no injuries to report this Spring Training, something Bobby Cox will have to strive to have all season long. By the way, I’m buying Rafael Furcal as the best leadoff man in baseball.

New York: Kaz Matsui has come out swinging this Spring Training, notching three extra-base hits very quickly in his short career. Matsui should be right around the .295/.330/.445 projections that everyone seems to be making, which will make him a decent shortstop. Jose Reyes, currently out with a hamstring injury, is a much superior baseball player. Might the Rangers take Kaz instead?

Florida: What is this I hear about a changed delivery for Dontrelle Willis? That, and the Britney Spears concerts being cancelled, are easily the top two most disappointing things from Spring Training.

Expos: Who?

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On the same day in which brother Jeff Weaver of the Los Angeles Dodgers gave up eight hits and four earned runs over five innings in a Grapefruit League game against the Florida Marlins, Jered Weaver pitched seven shutout innings to lead the 10th-ranked Long Beach State 49ers (14-5) to a 4-0 victory over the 17th-ranked University of Arizona Wildcats (11-8-1). (Box Score)

The younger Weaver allowed only three hits, one walk, and one hit batter as he improved his record to 7-0 on Thursday night at Blair Field in Long Beach. Jered's ERA (0.71) is now one-tenth of his brother's ERA this spring (7.07).

Weaver vs. Arizona:

            IP  H   R   ER  BB  K
Weaver      7   3   0   0   1   3

Season Totals:

           IP     H    R   ER   BB   K    ERA    W-L
Weaver     50.2   20   4   4    6    73   0.71   7-0

What was missing this time around were the strikeouts. Weaver only fanned three Wildcats, the fewest Ks he's had in his last 20 starts. The big righthander had been working on a streak of five outings of 10 or more whiffs, including back-to-back games of 15 strikeouts heading into his start vs. Arizona.

Going into the game, I was concerned as to whether Weaver's career-high 120 pitches the previous Friday vs. UCLA combined with starting on one day less rest than normal would negatively affect his performance against the Wildcats. As it turned out, Weaver definitely did not have his best stuff. He hit 92 and 93 on the speed guns on occasion but was not his usual overpowering self.

Although the All-American had an impressive strikes-to-balls ratio of 2.1:1 over his 114 pitch count total, he threw nearly as many first pitch balls as strikes. Working behind in the count more often than he had in any previous start this year, Weaver seemed to be throwing in the high-80s as much as in the low-90s. He also went with his fastball about 80% of the time, mixing in an assortment of varying off-speed breaking balls and change-ups as needed.

On one hand, Weaver was not nearly as dominant as he had been in the other four appearances that I have witnessed this year. On the other hand, it was notable that the 21-year-old did so well with as little as he had that night.

More than anything, Weaver knows how to pitch. His stuff is good but not great for a big leaguer. The scouts like his size (6'7", 205), outstanding command, ability to change speeds, and mound presence. I think Weaver projects as a 6 or 7 K/9 type pitcher, not an 8 or 9 guy despite his collegiate record.

Let's take a look at some potentially comparable major league pitchers based on their 2003 seasons.

RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS
STRIKEOUTS/9 IP BETWEEN 6 AND 7
WALKS/9 IP < 3

                              K/9 IP   BB/9 IP
1   Roy Halladay               6.90     1.08   
2   Livan Hernandez            6.87     2.20   
3   Kevin Millwood             6.85     2.76   
4   John Lackey                6.66     2.91   
5   Miguel Batista             6.61     2.79   
6   Bartolo Colon              6.43     2.49   
7   Ben Sheets                 6.40     1.75   
8   Brad Penny                 6.33     2.57   
9   Matt Morris                6.27     2.04   
10  Woody Williams             6.24     2.24   
11  Tim Hudson                 6.08     2.29

Source: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia

Roy Halladay, Miguel Batista, and Tim Hudson are extreme groundball type pitchers, which Weaver is clearly not. Even Livan Hernandez and Matt Morris have higher GB/FB ratios than Weaver. That narrows the field down to Kevin Millwood, John Lackey, Bartolo Colon, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, and Woody Williams.

Although there is a difference in their height, I think Sheets (6'1", 200) may be Weaver's most comparable major leaguer. Both were excellent college pitchers and have a similar array of pitches (low-to-mid-90s fastball, curveball, and change-up). Sheets was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers as the tenth pick in the first round of the 1999 draft.

Given their similar builds, looks, and styles, one cannot dismiss the possibility that Jered may also be comparable to his older brother Jeff, who was an outstanding college pitcher in his own right at Fresno State. What's unknown is whether Jered would be more like the 2000-2002 version of Jeff or the 2003 model that resulted in a disastrous season with the New York Yankees and a subsequent trade to his hometown Dodgers.

And that, my friends, brothers, and Padres, is the multi-million dollar question.

Photo Credit: Matt Brown

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On May 1 of this year, most of you will open up a newspaper and look at the Major League standings. Most likely, you’ll find yourself somewhat surprised by who is on top and who is on bottom, trying to recall the events of the past month. A key principle in this will be how the teams played in April, how good their opponents were, and how many times they’re playing within their confines.

It seems that Major League Baseball scheduling is an inexact science, and while teams finish the same in the long run, magnifying the short term will tell us things as well. Today I’ll be changing the site name to ‘Wait ‘Til Next Month”, in honor of my American League shirt that’s years old.

Each American League division has three ‘contenders’, although I would argue that the Blue Jays, White Sox and Mariners are all pretenders this season. Toronto is a good team in a great division, the White Sox have disastrously bad pitching, and the Mariners don’t have nearly the star power that Anaheim or Oakland possess. And don’t even ask about the Orioles, let’s just say I’m a seller on them.

Baltimore will play twenty-four games before May 1, tied with Seattle, New York and Boston for most in the American League. The other division teams, Toronto and Tampa Bay, will play twenty-three and twenty-two games respectively. Camden Yards will see 14 of the 24 games, or approximentally 58.3%, third best in the AL. Baltimore got the fourth overall ranking in my Strength of Opponents test, basically applying numerical values to each hand. When combining the Home% and test% and ranking the teams, you’ll get this list:

1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
6. Anaheim Angels
7. Seattle Mariners
7. New York Yankees
9. Baltimore Orioles
10. Detroit Tigers
10. Cleveland Indians
12. Chicago White Sox
13. Kansas City Royals
14. Minnesota Twins

Baltimore is not sensational, good for the ninth easiest April 2004 schedule, bur I was feeling a little more sick to my stomach. The Orioles must invest in pitching in the future, or none of the players will be in the Majors the next time an ace comes about. It will be pitching that really holds the Orioles back, but the team will only be forced to throw their fifth starter twice during the month. The Yankees and Blue Jays will need their fifth starter three times, while the Orioles could get away with just one. This luxury offers managers more time to make their decision. For example, the team hasn’t decided on who is going to be the fifth starter, so it allows more time for that too.

The Yankees and Red Sox will be playing against eachother seven times this April, by contrast, the Blue Jays aren’t scheduled to play New York in it’s first trial in this lunch period. But the Yankees play the Devil Rays and White Sox quite often, so they have that going for them. Boston will need series wins over the three big AL East threats, something I’m a bit doubtful of.

In the AL Central, the five teams came out to have the five most difficult records in the American League. Minnesota plays the Tigers and Indians a combined twelve times in April, and that should do a lot to elevate their status. The Twins should win it in April, and you have to wonder, will Minnesota fold in this situation?

Finally, the AL West. Texas is my vote for worst record after April, seeing as though the Kansas City Royals are the worst team they play. Anaheim should catch the division lead by May 1st, but ultimately, Jerry Seinfeld will do with his ending than the Angels. And that’s not saying a lot.

May 1: NY, MIN, and ANA

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The All-Baseball roundtable series continues today with a preview of the American League East.

Just as Christian Ruzich was afraid to annoint the Chicago Cubs champions of the N.L. Central, Alex Belth is trying to convince himself (and others) that the Red Sox are the team to beat in the A.L. East.

Go to the All-Baseball.com home page to find out what Christian, Alex, and the rest of the gang--including Mike Carminati, Mark McClusky, Bryan Smith, Twins Fan Dan, Jon Weisman, and Peter White--have to say.

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First of all, let me start with a thank you. My site, the one here at All-Baseball, topped 10,000 visitors in it’s first month. This was largely due to the press from my top 50 prospect list, but hopefully I can keep this pace up regardless. I write here to be heard, and I can’t explain how great it is to have an audience.

Speaking of that, thank you for everyone who started to check out the Hardball Times yesterday. We are very proud of the project, both visually and in content. This is a place you should be checking everyday, as there should many articles published each day. My two article a week schedule will make my post lightly (see today) two days a week, so please have patience with me. I’ll have five articles published each week, but some of them will be over at THT. My first is a preview on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who I actually found quite interesting when doing research. For information on the wildness triple crown, Rocco Baldelli’s future, and B.J. Upton’s comparisons, check out the preview.

Also at THT today is Aaron Gleeman’s top 25 prospects, a day after publishing his 26-50. Gleeman is very high on his catchers, but with this group, rightfully so. He has two members of my top five way down, but I can’t understand Joe Blanton in the top 15. Gleeman does a great job, it’s obvious he’s done his research, so you should definitely go check that out.

By publishing his list so late, Aaron was able to take into account the recent injury of Greg Miller. A top ten prospect on my list, the Dodger southpaw will likely be out this season, obviously injuring his future greatly. Peter Gammons notes that this brings back the high school pitchers debate, but it’s very easy to point at Cole Hamels as defense. Miller will be missed in this system, but Edwin Jackson is an ace and Joel Hanrahan is pretty underrated. Paul DePodesta plus $100 million can’t hurt either, so my prediction of the Dodgers being annual champions in about three years still stands.

Eric Chavez signs a six-year, $66M deal with the Athletics. Dave Stewart did a nice job here, there aren’t many teams willing to give six years to a player anymore. Chavez is a fairly safe bet, although six years presents a long time for Beane to get screwed. Chavez is also one of the more platoonable players in the game, but will make $11M per year on his ability to hit right-handers. Eric is a great start for any team, and oh yeah, don’t they have some pitching in Oakland too?

Also, scary news for Cubs fans...every member of All-Baseball predicts a Cubs NL Central title. Our fourth roundtable was published yesterday, and judging by the response we’ve received from the first three, we want to keep them coming. Comments on the All-Baseball homepage, this site, or The Hardball Times are more than welcomed, as I guarantee your voice can be heard. I’ll be writing more later this week, but enjoy what’s at your disposal now...

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Some people in the baseball community have suggested that I may be stalking Jered Weaver. Truth of the matter, Weaver is stalking Mark Prior.

If the former University of Southern California ace is the king of college pitchers as many have claimed, then let the record show that Weaver is on pace to dethrone him.

The similarities are startling. Both were born and raised in Southern California. Jered hails from Simi Valley and Mark is from San Diego.

Both come from athletic families. Jered's older brother, Jeff, is a pitcher with the Dodgers and his cousins, Jed and Dan, play football for the 49ers and the University of Oregon, respectively. Mark's father, Jerry, played football at Vanderbilt; his sister, Millie, played tennis at San Diego; and his brother, Jerry, played tennis at Villanova.

Both pitchers are tall righthanders. Weaver is 6'6" and 200 pounds. Prior is 6'5" and 220 pounds. Both pitchers throw a fastball, curveball, and a change-up. Both pitchers have pinpoint control. And both pitchers have very impressive resumes.

Mark Prior

           IP     H    R   ER   BB   K     W-L
Prior     82.1   107  56   42   23   71    4-8   
Weaver    92.2    80  46   45   32   74    8-4

             H/9    BB/9   K/9    K/BB   ERA
Prior       11.7    2.5    7.8    3.1    4.59
Weaver       7.8    3.1    7.2    2.3    4.37

           IP     H    R   ER   BB   K     W-L
Prior     136.1  126  70   54   46   150   10-7   
Weaver    133.1   87  35   29   20   144   14-4

             H/9    BB/9   K/9    K/BB   ERA
Prior        8.3    3.0    9.9    3.3    3.56
Weaver       5.9    1.4    9.7    7.2    1.96

DATE       OPP               IP   H   R   ER   BB   K   W/L
31-Jan     Santa Clara       1    1   0   0    1     2  N/A
3-Feb      Louisville        5    3   0   0    0    10   W
9-Feb      at LB State       7.1  4   2   2    1    10   W
16-Feb     at UCLA           7    2   1   0    1    12  N/A
23-Feb     Miss St           6    4   3   2    2     9   W
3-Mar      at Houston        8    9   3   3    0    10   W
9-Mar      at Stanford       7.1  8   2   2    1    13   L
Totals                      41.2 31  11   9    6    66  4-1

DATE       OPP               IP   H   R   ER   BB   K   W/L
6-Feb      at California     7    3   0   0    0     6   W
13-Feb     USC               7    2   1   1    1    14   W
20-Feb     Baylor            7    6   1   1    1    10   W
27-Feb     at Houston        7    3   1   1    1    10   W
5-Mar      BYU               7.2  2   1   1    1    15   W
12-Mar     UCLA at SD        8    1   0   0    1    15   W
Totals                      43.2 17   4   4    5    70  6-0

             H/9    BB/9   K/9    K/BB    ERA
Prior        6.7    1.3    14.3   11.0    1.94
Weaver       3.5    1.0    14.4   14.0    0.82

First of all, I’d like to start off today by making my big announcement...I have joined a cast of other writers to form The Hardball Times. Aaron Gleeman and Matthew Namee (Bill James’ assistant) are heading up the project, and we really feel it will be worth your time everyday.

The site should be less analytically based than some sites, focusing more on the written word than the number. This fits into my style, and hopefully will appeal to the general baseball fan. We’ll throw at least three articles at readers on a daily basis, and the technical guys have done a great job with the layout. Comments are welcomed, and I hope you’ll be stopping there to see my work in the coming days.

OK, now to your regularly scheduled Monday article...

Spring Training sure flies by. After a November and December that fly by due to the Hot Stove, we fall into January. While signings like Ivan Rodriguez and Greg Maddux have made the late offseason interesting the last few years, every January I find myself counting down to Spring Training. And when it gets to Spring Training? I’m just counting down to the season.

The exhibition games often go unreported, so it’s very difficult to keep up with the latest happenings, even surrounding your favorite team. I’ve gone through all the MLB team sites, Rotoworld, and a few other sources to bring you as much as I’ve heard on Spring Training 2004...

In Contention

If a team is serious about making a postseason run, Spring Training should be no more than a tune up. The team should already be somewhat decided, so managers can do more teaching and less evaluating. But there are some interesting stories going around the big boys that are worth keeping track of.

First and foremost is your only $200M team, the New York Yankees. Steinbrenner can throw all the money he wants at this team, but health will always be a question mark. Jon Lieber’s groin is still being difficult, and it should sideline him for another two weeks. Probable fill-in Jorge DePaula is out with back injuries, and El Duque won’t be ready until May. The door looks to be flying open for Donovan Osborne, the ex-Cardinal pitcher that I didn’t think I would ever see again, much less with the league’s favorite.

St. Louis doesn’t seem to be worrying about their pitching staff as much as I would like, as Cris Carpenter is very confident in himself. If Carpenter pitches effectively he could bring the Cardinals back into NL Central discussions, although I don’t anticipate that to happen. In other Cardinal news, the team let Steve Cox and Brent Butler go, as Tony La Russa figured there was no way they make the team. There is no word on the 1B/LF situation of the Cardinals, and they would be much smarter to go with John Gall than Kerry Robinson or So Taguchi.

Cardinal rivals, my team, have had a little drama this season. Mark Prior’s injury seems to get a larger headline everyday, and it’s probable that Prior will miss his season opener in April. This, accompanied with the Mike Remlinger injury, is not a good sign for an organization that can’t remember the last time they won back-to-back seasons. Remlinger’s leftie role will likely be filled by Jimmy Anderson, the ex-Pirate that’s had a fantastic Spring thus far.

Across town, the White Sox are narrowing down their rotation choices. Scott Schoenweis appears to have been given the fourth spot, leaving the last spot down to Dan Wright, Jason Grilli, or Neal Cotts. Ozzie Guillen eliminated Cotts recently, and Wright is said to be the heavy favorite. I’ve always thought Wright’s knucle-curve would work well in middle relief, but the White Sox simply don’t have enough arms. The fact that a team with Schoenweis and Wright at the back end of their rotation is talking about a division championship sure doesn’t speak well for the AL Central.

The former World Championship Diamondbacks also have pitching concerns, and have begun eliminating names. Prospects Edgar Gonzalez and Mike Gosling weren’t given much of a chance at the last rotation spot, a battle between Steve Sparks, John Patterson, Andrew Good, and Casey Daigle. Daigle, who? Baseball Prospectus 2004 talks about how Arizona has bad minor league stadiums for pitchers, so maybe Daigle’s 4.59ERA has been deceiving us. That’s not likely though, and I expect Steve Sparks will be named to the position in a matter of days.

Finally, the Philadelphia Phillies must alter two player’s careers before Spring Training is up, likely sending them to another organization. Amaury Telemaco, Bud Smith, and Dave Coggin are all out of options, and only one will make the back end of the bullpen. Put your money on Telemaco, the ex-Cub right-hander who seems to be remaking his forgotten career.

Too Many Questions

It’s March 15. It’s time to figure out the last few spots of the rotation, and managers should already have rough estimates of their Opening Day lineup. The teams that don’t? Well, that’s the type of ballclub headed into disaster. While stories about the Pirates or Devil Rays don’t normally interest me, their Spring Training drama normally beats out any team.

Pittsburgh had high hopes for their 2B position this year, and are quickly being let down. Freddy Sanchez is hurt, and Bobby Hill hasn’t played a lot. Even a not-ready Hill is a better choice than Abraham Nunez, and Lloyd McClendon should just be willing to let Hill learn on the job.

Speaking of open middle infield positions, the Brewers are having a fight in the middle infield. My choice would be Keith Ginter (a.k.a. Marcus Giles?) and Bill Hall, but the team seems happy with Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell. I can’t believe the Diamondback duo has yet to be dealt, but Ned Yost seems to be excited to hand the jobs to veterans. Hall has been fantastic in Spring Training thus far, but he’ll be going to the bench somewhere after this.

Both the Bucs and Brewers are bad, but the Reds are going to give the team a run for their money. Anyways, it appears the Reds are close to naming their rotation, with Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson, Cory Lidle, Jose Acevedo, and Jesus Sanchez penciled into the rotation. I’m in disbelief that Brandon Claussen doesn’t have a spot, and equally as mystified that Paul Wilson still plays baseball.

Wilson’s former team, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, have been nailing down some rotation choices. Mark Hendrickson and Doug Waechtler are joining Victor Zambrano and Jeremi Gonzalez. Paul Abbott and Damian Moss are fighting out the last spot, and Piniella will likely give it to the man he’s more familiar with, Abbott. The team has done a good job with this, though many will argue Chad Gaudin and Dewon Brazelton should get spots. I disagree, let the two dominate AAA before exposing them to the harsh reality that is being a Devil Ray.

Esteban Yan never did much in Tampa, but he’s seemingly turning his career around in Detroit. After a great Winter League season, Yan is jumping over Nate Robertson as the likely winner of the Tiger fifth starter race. Yan could very well pull a Rodrigo Lopez this year, but chances are he flames out horribly. Detroit will be bad this year, but 50 wins will sure be nice.

Duh!

Just to reiterate a few decisions, Darren Dreifort will formally be moving to the bullpen. The last spot is still between Edwin Jackson, Wilson Alvarez, and Jose Lima, but only Jackson has been pitching consistently through Spring Training. Jim Tracy has reiterated time and time again that Jackson will be in the rotation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a spot opens for Wilson Alvarez as well.

Dustin Hermanson has all but won the Giants rotation race, and Darren Oliver is doing the same over in Florida. Both have been fantastic this Spring, but it shouldn’t mask the fact that both are terrible players. Larry Beinfest should be counting down the days to Burnett, or he should be on the phone landing some pitchers.

Who’s on the Phone?

If Darren Oliver doesn’t appeal to Florida fans, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel has mentioned Juan Cruz as a possibility. The team has reportedly offered a mid-level shortstop prospect back to the Cubs, indicative on how far his stock has fallen. It makes so much more sense to rebuild both confidence and trade value in Des Moines, but I can’t say I trust Dusty Baker in this regard. Hang on a little while until Cruz, then attempt to make a comprable Hillenbrand for Kim deal.

We’ve talked about Donovan Osborne earlier, but the Yankees are interested in Pirate right-hander Kris Benson. Like Ben Sheets, Benson has been on everyone’s mind since the 2000 Olympics, probably setting the bar too high. I haven’t seen Benson pitch since coming back from injury, so I have no first-hand reporting for you in that regard.

Benson has vowed that he will be traded before the season, and Ken Griffey Jr. is dropping similar bombs in Cincinnati. I just can’t see the Reds getting rid of Griffey, the hometown product they were s