After the first week of the 2004 season, Scott Rolen is leading the major leagues in home runs (4), runs (7), and RBI (13). Is this the year Rolen has an MVP-type year and finally gets his due?

Scott Bruce Rolen, who graduated from Jasper (Ind.) High School in 1993, won the state's "Mr. Baseball" honor given to the top high school player. Although Scott received several basketball scholarship offers from Oklahoma State and Georgia (among others), he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies after being drafted in the second round of the 1993 amateur draft.

Rolen progressed through the Philly farm system at a fast pace before emerging as the National League Rookie of the Year in 1997. However, Rolen never quite lived up to being "the next Mike Schmidt" and was traded in July 2002 from the Phillies along with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith. That's right--Polanco, Timlin, and Smith. And don't forget the money that the Phillies threw into the deal to even things out.

Although Rolen has never batted .300 or hit more than 31 HR in a season, he has produced at a consistently high level over the first seven-plus years of his career.

Season Averages Per 162 Games:

AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG
598  103  169  41  4  30  109  13  5  81 131  .282  .374  .510

Rolen's adjusted on-base plus slugging average (OPS+) has averaged 128, and it has ranged from 121 to 139 every season. The five-time Gold Glove winner has also averaged 25 Win Shares per year and already has a total of 176 for his career.

The righthanded-hitting Rolen, who has yet to lead the league in any hitting category or play in a World Series, hasn't performed under the limelight in Philadelphia and St. Louis. Nonetheless, the 6'4", 240-pound Rolen has been a productive hitter, an excellent third baseman, and a good baserunner.

Rolen, who turned 29 years old last week, may, in fact, be one of the top ten third basemen in baseball history through age 28.

ON BASE PLUS SLUGGING AVERAGE

                                 OPS    
1    Eddie Mathews              .933   
2    Chipper Jones              .931   
3    Wade Boggs                 .898   
4    Scott Rolen                .884   
5    John McGraw                .883   
6    Mike Schmidt               .874   
7    Harlond Clift              .872   
8    George Brett               .863   
9    Denny Lyons                .862   
10   Troy Glaus                 .849

That's not a bad threesome ahead of Scott. Two of the best third basemen in history and perhaps the best of the previous ten years.

Let's take a look at how Rolen compares to his peers in OPS vs. the league average so as not to slight players from eras with less favorable hitting conditions:

OPS RELATIVE TO THE LEAGUE

                                RATE   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Home Run Baker              126     .845     .673   
2    Eddie Mathews               124     .933     .752   
3    Wade Boggs                  123     .898     .731   
4    Denny Lyons                 122     .862     .704   
5    Mike Schmidt                121     .874     .720   
6    George Brett                121     .863     .713   
7    Chipper Jones               120     .931     .775   
8    John McGraw                 118     .883     .746   
9    Bob Horner                  118     .847     .719   
10   Ron Santo                   118     .841     .716
17   Scott Rolen                 114     .884     .775

Rolen slips to 17th under this method but is not far behind many legends of the game. Hmmm...seeing Bob Horner's name on that list reminds me that it's probably time to unload those rookie cards I still own.

Rolen ranks 10th in runs created and 14th in runs created vs. the league average (see below).

RUNS CREATED

                                 RC     
1    Eddie Mathews              1088   
2    John McGraw                1063   
3    Denny Lyons                 930   
4    Harlond Clift               894   
5    Ron Santo                   879   
T6   Freddy Lindstrom            839   
T6   Billy Nash                  839   
8    George Brett                786   
9    Eddie Yost                  774   
10   Scott Rolen                 759

RUNS CREATED RELATIVE TO THE LEAGUE

                                RATE   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Wade Boggs                  177      572      323   
2    John McGraw                 171     1063      622   
3    Eddie Mathews               164     1088      665   
4    Home Run Baker              159      651      409   
5    George Brett                157      786      500   
6    Mike Schmidt                151      629      417   
7    Chipper Jones               151      756      502   
8    Denny Lyons                 150      930      619   
9    Darrell Evans               141      450      320   
10   Ron Santo                   139      879      632   
14   Scott Rolen                 133      759      571

Rolen ranks 8th in runs created per game and 14th in runs created/game relative to the league average.

RUNS CREATED/GAME

                                RC/G    
1    John McGraw               11.00   
2    Denny Lyons                9.77   
3    Wade Boggs                 8.04   
4    Eddie Mathews              8.01   
5    Chipper Jones              7.91   
6    Harlond Clift              7.29   
7    Billy Nash                 7.17   
8    Scott Rolen                6.96   
9    George Pinckney            6.94   
10   Home Run Baker             6.88

RUNS CREATED/GAME RELATIVE TO THE LEAGUE

                                RATE   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Wade Boggs                  177     8.04     4.54   
2    John McGraw                 172    11.00     6.40   
3    Eddie Mathews               163     8.01     4.90   
4    Home Run Baker              159     6.88     4.33   
5    George Brett                157     6.79     4.32   
6    Mike Schmidt                151     6.80     4.50   
7    Chipper Jones               150     7.91     5.26   
8    Denny Lyons                 150     9.77     6.51   
9    Darrell Evans               141     6.25     4.44   
10   Ron Santo                   139     6.10     4.37
14   Scott Rolen                 133     6.96     5.24

Most impressively, Rolen places 10th and 8th in runs created above average and runs created above position.

RUNS CREATED ABOVE AVERAGE

                                RCAA    
1    Eddie Mathews               482   
2    John McGraw                 434   
3    Denny Lyons                 305   
4    George Brett                278   
5    Home Run Baker              258   
6    Chipper Jones               255   
7    Wade Boggs                  234   
8    Ron Santo                   212   
9    Mike Schmidt                197   
10   Scott Rolen                 189

RUNS CREATED ABOVE POSITION

                                RCAP    
1    Eddie Mathews               481   
2    John McGraw                 451   
3    Denny Lyons                 308   
4    George Brett                278   
5    Home Run Baker              273   
6    Chipper Jones               251   
7    Wade Boggs                  230   
8    Scott Rolen                 197   
9    Mike Schmidt                188   
10   Harlond Clift               184

The above screens were based on 3,000 or more plate appearances.

Source: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia

Given that Rolen is a superior-fielding third baseman to those players on the above lists (with the exception of Schmidt), it would be fair to conclude that he is definitely one of the top all-round 3B ever through the age of 28.

According to Bill James' similarity scores, Rolen's closest comps from an offensive standpoint are as follows:

Similar Batters through Age 28:
Gary Sheffield (927)
Chipper Jones (922)
Shawn Green (922)
Dale Murphy (901)
Greg Luzinski (899)
Harlond Clift (894)
Bob Horner (889)
Reggie Jackson (889)
Dick Allen (888)
Barry Bonds (886)

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

The players with similarity scores above 900 are considered to be "truly similar" based on James' definitions. Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Shawn Green, and Dale Murphy are or were top-notch offensive players. What separates Rolen from the pack is his defensive position. He is probably most similar to Jones given that the latter also played third base through the age of 29. Jones has been better with the bat and Rolen has been better with the glove.

I think the comments in Baseball Prospectus 2004 say it best:

So maybe he's Ron Santo instead of Mike Schmidt. The Cardinals aren't complaining. Rolen's excellence in Philly was veiled only by the expectations he shouldered. He's a complete ballplayer and an elite performer. He'll have many more fine seasons like this past one.

There is no question that Schmidt was a better home run slugger than Rolen through age 28. However, Schmidt didn't reach the 40-HR plateau until he turned 29. Could this be the year Rolen steps it up and hits 40? If so, look for the Schmidt comparisons to re-emerge as Michael Jack followed his 45-HR season in 1979 at the age of 29 with 48-31-35-40-36-33-37-35.

Like the authors of Baseball Prospectus, I think Rolen is more like Santo than Schmidt. That said, I think we should leave open the possibility that Rolen could be entering his prime power seasons and may end up being compared once again to the best third baseman in baseball history.