WTNYNovember 30, 2005
Old Get Older, Thin Get Thinner
By Bryan Smith

Omar Minaya is an early Christmas shopper, this much we know. On Black Friday, he officially announced the acquisiton of All-Star Carlos Delgado. Three days later, he did the same with Billy Wagner. Suddenly, the two largest items on Minaya's Christmas list were checked off. Many suggested the the team was close to checking off priorities three and four, as well, those being the catching and set-up positions.

It is not unlike the New York Mets to spend money. This is nothing new to a franchise that spent it's way into the 2000 World Series. However, this time around, it appears the Mets could pay a higher price in the end.

Consider the 2008 season. In this season, 2005 signees Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez will make a combined $21.5 million, at the ages of 31 and 36, respectively. New acquisitions Delgado and Wagner will make an estimated amount of $26 million in what will be their age 36 seasons. If the rumor mill is correct, than the team will also be giving $10-15 million on either Ramon Hernandez or Ben Molina, as well as a set-up man in the Tom Gordon mold. Nearly $60 million is already spent on veterans that will be past their primes.

Jim Duquette was nearly run out of New York after trading the farm system's prized jewel, Scott Kazmir, for the wild and volatile Victor Zambrano. Mets fans complained that their GM had no eye towards the future. Yusmeiro Petit is no Kazmir, and Zambrano no Delgado, but the evidence is clear: the new regime is not all that different from the old one.

The Carlos Delgado trade was an important one for this franchise. It was, in fact, a great trade, and one that any GM (with money) would make ten times out of ten. However, it's just another data point in a long list of the Mets dealing their future for the present. Sooner or later, these decisions will come back to haunt the Mets.

At this point, the farm system is made up of one player and a bunch of question marks. With Petit gone, Lastings Milledge no longer has to share the spotlight with anyone. In fact, at this point, Milledge is probably the one player closest to being untouchable, as only the likes of Manny Ramirez could lead to his exit. While Lastings plays the same defensive position as Beltran, you can only guess that one of the two good defenders could move, likely taking over for Cliff Floyd in left field.

So, we think the future has one homegrown player in it (oh, and that David Wright guy), but what's after that? Well, a whole bunch of questions, that's what. There is Gaby Hernandez, the only other player close to being legit in the system, though he suffered a serious second half breakdown. Can he compete in the higher levels? Can his G/F ratio continue to be so low, and Hernandez not allow any HR?

Following Hernandez is Phil Humber, their 2004 first-round pick. Humber missed the second half of 2005, and will likely miss most of 2006, with Tommy John surgery. Can Humber bounce back from the surgery like so many have? Was he, supposedly the safe choice then, the right pick considering the types of talent behind him?

Both Brian Bannister and Anderson Hernandez broke out last year, posting big numbers in AA and AAA. However, you have to wonder if Bannister's postseason numbers, pitching for the United States, is any indication that 2005 was a fluke. Or how about Hernandez, who had never hit well before last season. Is he just another in a long line of empty batting average players?

You have the international group, all under 20, and none having presented much more than tools: Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Emmanuel Garcia. There is the lone Cuban, Alay Soler, who has received so much hype, but has been away from competitive pitching for so long. There are the bad-defending bashers, Brett Harper, Mike Carp and Shawn Bowman.

Simply put, every player besides Milledge in the farm system has a large red mark on his resume. Milledge is the only lock for my upcoming top 75 list, though Hernandez will likely sneak in on the back end. Of course, all that could change if the Mets pony up, and sign Mike Pelfrey, who would rank ahead of Hernandez with his three plus pitches and considerable experience. Of course, it's hard to have a lot of faith in the scouting department, considering the lack of respect even their own organization gives them.

In three of the last four years, Mets signings have prevented them from having a second or third-round pick. The exception was 2004, in which the Mets were able to draft Gaby Hernandez in the third round. The Mets should also look at their 2001 draft as proof that more than one draft pick can be beneficial. While the team used their first pick on Aaron Heilman, a supplemental choice was what allowed them to draft David Wright.

The problem is one of philosophy. If the Mets can sign marquee free agents, they surely shouldn't hesitate because they will lose a draft pick. But there is no question that, after considering the evidence, that the front office has historically attacked the free agent market in a wrong, anti-Moneyball fashion. This season, Mike Piazza's exit will help make up for the draft pick lost for signing Billy Wagner. But, of course, there is the forthcoming catcher and set-up signings that should leave the Mets empty in the middle rounds...again.

The Amazins need to look no farther than across town to see the damage that their philosophies can cause. While the Yankees managed to win yet another division title last year, they did so with using anything left from their farm system. Old players continued to break down, contracts continued to pile up, and prospects continued to be traded. There is no question in my mind that had the Yankees traded Robinson Cano and/or Chien-Ming Wang before the 2005 season, the division title would have gone to a different team.

Rather than getting advice from their cross-town rivals, the Mets should be admiring the work of their division rivals. The Atlanta Braves are the perfect example of blending a farm system with Major League acquisitions. If the Mets could find a way to do this, and in a richer style at that, their success could undoubtedly be longer lasting than what they are currently looking at.

But that is going to take yet another front office upheaval, which few people see coming. Omar Minaya is spending money like a trust fund baby, the problem is that in the end, his signees will end up even more spoiled.

Comments

So you're saying that the Mets shouldn't try to emulate the Yankees' record? Hmmm.

Also, I wonder if you're overlooking their most recent Latin American signings, such as Soler.

The Mets seem to be working under a similar mode as the Yankees dynasty, as you pointed out. Though it seems that it is negatively connoted in this piece.

The Yankees selectively kept their own prospects and dished others for bigger names in a fashion that worked out. Where the Yankees had Jeter, Williams, Posada, and Pettitte, the Mets have Wright, Reyes, Milledge, and...well, I can't think of a pitcher other than Heilman or Seo right now, and surely they're no Pettitte. But it's along the same lines.

That's why it made plenty of sense to dish prospects for Delgado, and why it wouldn't be the dumbest move to deal more for Manny. Not saying it's the 100 percent correct course of action, but the Mets already have a few of their home grown guys as the foundation for the team, so why not put able bodied veterans around them?

"Yusmeiro Petit is no Kazmir, and Zambrano no Delgado, but the evidence is clear: the new regime is not all that different from the old one."

Bryan, there is nothing inherently wrong with trading away prospects for proven talent. The Zambrano deal was rightly maligned, not because it was such a trade, but because the Mets' subjective valuation of both Zambrano and Kazmir departed significantly from their market values -- and not in a good way.

You're correct in saying that Petit is no Kazmir, but the larger point is that Delgado is no Zambrano; this Mets front office is very different than the last because it is better at valuing its prospects and acquisitions.

First of all, yes, I know the Yankees run has been magnificent. But remember, they have even more resources than the Mets, and I also think they have a smarter resource. They did it their way, but they also did it perfectly. Following the Yankees approach can be a dangerous one, because if you screw up and sign the wrong people, you're in for a lot of money where it shouldn't be. The Mets are still paying Mo Vaughn.

And I agree, Mike, that trading prospects for proven talent is fine. My article yesterday outlines that. I liked the Delgado trade. I would have made it in Minaya's shoes. But there needs to be a point where you do a bit of developing on your own. David Wright is the best player on the Mets. The proof is in the pudding.

Doesn't getting a draft pick from Piazza require offering him arbitration? Is there a danger of him getting an above-market contract if he accepts?

Unless they know he won't accept arbitration I can't see the Mets offering it to Piazza. Way too big a risk that he'll get a big prize in his crackerjack box.

You write:

"This is nothing new to a franchise that spent it's way into the 2000 World Series"

Care to back that up with actual numbers or is it just a cheap shot?. I realize they had the 3rd highest payroll in baseball (behind the Yankees and Dodgers), but other teams were well within reach and it's not as if they brought in a huge free agent that year. Todd Zeile? Hampton came over in a trade.

You also write:

"Nearly $60 million is already spent on veterans that will be past their primes."

Beltran will be past his prime at 31???

Further down you write:

"So, we think the future has one homegrown player in it (oh, and that David Wright guy),"

It's only true if you leave out Reyes, Seo and Heilman (dare I include Ring and Belle), all of whom are already on the big league club. So that's five, not including Ring and Belle. How many did the Chi Sox have this year? Or the Red Sox last year? The Angels? Marlins? Or are those columns coming up next?

You also write:

"the Mets should be admiring the work of their division rivals. The Atlanta Braves are the perfect example of blending a farm system with Major League acquisitions."

Yes, the Braves are great. They are in fact the perfect example for pretty much EVERY TEAM to emulate. You've named the most (or at least 2nd most) successful franchise in the past 50 years.

Finally you write:

"Omar Minaya is spending money like a trust fund baby, the problem is that in the end, his signees will end up even more spoiled."

I'm not even sure what the last part of that means (even more spoiled?), but the Mets payroll next year will only be about $20-$30 mil more than this year, once you factor in losing Piazza, Looper, Cameron, etc. Are they spending? Of course. But I don't think they're going absolutely nuts. They'll still end up with the 3rd highest payroll in baseball, behind the Red Sox and miles away from the Yankees.

Following the Yankees approach can be a dangerous one, because if you screw up and sign the wrong people, you're in for a lot of money where it shouldn't be.

Hell, even the Yanks screwed up the Yanks approach.

(dare I include Ring and Belle)

I know definitions of "homegrown" can vary, and Royce Ring did spend time in the Mets minor league system, but he actually came over in the Roberto Alomar trade.

You're right, my mistake. Ring is not homegrown.

Also, Matt Cerone over at Metsblog has calculated that the Met payroll will only be going up %15 next year, and that includes signing one of the big catcher.

http://www.metsblog.com/blog/_archives/2005/11/30/1429035.html

Finally, one more note on the 2000 Mets. There were more than 10 homegrown players that appeared in a game for the Mets that year. Out of the bigger ones, three were everyday players (Alfonzo, Agbayani, Payton), one was an everyday player that got hurt (Ordonez), one was an everyday player that got traded at the deadline (Mora), one was a backup (Vance Wilson), and one was there number 3 starter (Bobby Jones) who pitched a one-hitter in the playoffs.....you know, when they spent their way to the Series.

In addition to building the parent club into a playoff contender, Omar has imported more young talent than he's exported.
By mid-2006 the Mets should have 4 key position players under the age of 28, 3 of whom will be home grown.
The Met present is bright.
The Met future is bright.
And Omar's just getting warmed up...

Bryan sounds like a disgruntled small market team fan. And if you are, I understand, the baseball system sucks for the have nots.

But if not then you're just a Mets hater and your points are stupid.

For all your farm system knowledge I don't know how you miss Jose Reyes, yes a club grown talent.
In fact the current Mets lineup includes 4 Mets prospects, Reyes, Wright, Diaz and Hernandez at 2nd. Then throw in Heilman and Seo.

I'll agree with you that signing expensive, older free agents is full of risks, I remember the Baltimore teams that fell flat. But I never want to use the Braves as an example of what to be. I'd rather have World Championship seasons sprinkled in with lousy seasons than 14 division titles and a history of choking in the playoffs.

Finally, you miss the biggest point. This is New York. And it's different than anywhere else. I actually live near Atlanta and I know people here could care less about the Braves. In New York you need to be making moves and improving, right or wrong, we can't have a Kansas City year and we shouldn't because the Mets have so many dedicated fans they have more money and I'm glad they put a lot of it back into what the fans want and that's great players.

You sound like a fan of a team that keeps on loosing to the braves despite a lot of fancy winter press confrences. The only team thats been able to sprinkle in a couple WS wins among lousy seasons are the Marlins, not exactly a big market team. The Mets have been, and continue to be like the Orioles and the Dodgers; a lot of lousy seasons sprinkled with ... uh ... occasional 85 win seasons?

i like this quote "...I never want to use the Braves as an example of what to be." pure gold, if only cox and co. were like the Mets. Ha,ha. you should write for letterman.

With contracts coming off the books (Piazza, Cameron, Looper, etc.), the Mets' payroll this season will not be significantly higher than last year's. Plus, they'll have their new TV network (which was clearly formed using the Yankees' YES Network as a model) to bring in revenue. Also, every team in baseball got what I believe was approximately $12 million (I could be wrong on the figure) from baseball's deals like that with XM Radio. And, finally, I don't think the Mets are paying Mo Vaughn anymore. And even if they are, insurance covered all but about 20 percent of his contract in the years he missed a significant portion of the season, which includes the year he got hurt and did not return and the remaining years on his contract.

I agree with you. Sadly this front office never learns. Granted, this time around the overpaying is done for players who are of much higher caliber than the Mo Vaughns and Jeromy Burnitzes of this world, but if this team does not win the World Series in the next 2-3 years, all these big contracts will be a disappointment.

There's no doubt that the Braves front office is immensely smarter than that of the Mets. It saddens me that most of my fellow Met fans won't acknowledge this. You have to learn from your enemy if you wish to defeat him. Simple as that.