Baseball BeatAugust 21, 2007
Checking in on the First Round Draft Picks
By Rich Lederer

Eighteen of the 30 first round draft picks have begun their professional careers, ranging from one game in the case of Tim Alderson to 51 games by early signee Beau Mills.

I thought it would be interesting to see how the first rounders are doing. I have compiled the stats for the pitchers first, followed by the position players. All listings are in the order of how players were drafted.

                      W  L   ERA   IP    H   R  ER  HR   BB  SO  WHIP   SO/9  K/BB
Moskos     asx,ROK    0  0  4.00   9.1  15   5   4   1    2   8  1.82   7.71  4.00
Detwiler   H-A,ROK    1  2  4.50  24.1  30  12  12   2    8  23  1.56   8.51  2.88
Weathers   L-A        0  0  3.80   9.2   3   4   4   1    4  16  0.72  14.90  4.00
Savery     asx        0  1  3.86   9.2  10   4   4   0    3   5  1.35   4.66  1.67  
Withrow    ROK        0  0  5.60   8.0   5   5   5   0    4  12  1.13  13.50  3.00
Alderson   ROK        0  0  0.00   1.0   1   0   0   0    0   2  1.00  18.00  ----
Schmidt    L-A        0  1  6.43   7.0   8   5   5   0    6   6  2.00   7.71  1.00
Main       ROK,asx    1  1  3.70  20.0  16   8   8   2   10  28  1.30  12.60  2.80
Poreda     ROK        2  0  1.25  36.1  25   6   5   1    9  35  0.94   8.67  3.80
Simmons    AA         0  0  5.79  23.2  33  17  15   2    5  20  1.61   7.61  4.00         

Aaron Poreda (2-0, 1.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB), selected with the 25th overall pick by the Chicago White Sox, has performed the best of all the first round pitchers to date. However, recognize that the 20-year-old lefthander out of the University of San Francisco has worked his magic at Great Falls in the Pioneer League (Rookie). I wouldn't put much stock in his numbers until he makes the jump to at least Low-A, which is where most highly regarded college pitchers start their pro careers.

Casey Weathers (COL) has enjoyed success, allowing only three hits while striking out 16 batters in 9 2/3 innings for the Asheville Tourists of the South Atlantic League (Low-A). Chris Withrow (LAD) and Michael Main (TEX) have shown spurts of dominance, averaging well over one K per inning. Main has already been promoted to the Spokane Indians (Short Season).

                      G   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS SB CS
LaPorta    L-A,ROK   17   66  10  18  7  0  4  12   5  20  .273  .324  .561  .885  0  0
Mills      L-A,asx   51  201  37  52 14  1  5  36  17  44  .259  .330  .413  .743  0  0
Heyward    ROK        4   16   1   6  4  0  1   3   2   4  .375  .444  .813 1.257  0  1
Mesoraco   ROK       34  116  14  25  3  0  1   7  14  22  .216  .316  .267  .583  2  0
Ahrens     ROK       43  147  14  33  5  0  3  18  23  41  .224  .337  .320  .657  3  0
Kozma      ROK       27   94  19  25  5  0  2   9  12  18  .266  .361  .383  .744  3  1
Arencibia  asx       48  175  24  45 12  0  3  21  11  44  .257  .305  .377  .682  0  0
Revere     ROK       45  173  41  55  5  9  0  22  10  17  .318  .372  .451  .823 19  8 

Jason Heyward, chosen by the Atlanta Braves with the 14th overall pick, is off to a hot start. The 17-year-old outfielder has gone 6-for-16 with five XBH in his first four games for the GCL Braves of the Gulf Coast League (Rookie). Don't be surprised if he ends up as one of the top players out of the 2007 draft.

Ben Revere, the surprise first round choice of the Minnesota Twins, has put up some unusual numbers. The 5-foot-9 speester has hit 9 triples and stolen 19 bases in 45 games for the GCL Twins (Rookie). With only 10 BB and 17 SO, Revere has done little to convince me that he is not another Juan Pierre in the making. The outfielder has yet to go yard so I would discount those pre-draft reports in which he allegedly slugged a 450-foot homer.

Devin Mesoraco (CIN) has struggled the most, hitting just .216/.316/.267. His stock rose late last spring, and it's possible that he may have been a reach at #15. Toronto's first two selections – Kevin Ahrens and J.P. Arencibia – have combined to strike out 85 times in 322 at-bats.

Twelve first rounders have yet to play. In the order of how they were drafted, David Price (TB), Mike Moustakas (KC), Josh Vitters (CHC), Matt Wieters (BAL), Jarrod Parker (ARI), Madison Bumgarner (SF), Phillippe Aumont (SEA), Matt Dominguez (FLA), Blake Beavan (TEX), Rick Porcello (DET), Wendell Fairley (SF), and Andrew Brackman (NYY) are all signed but still awaiting their professional debuts. For the most part, the recent signees just reported to spring training facilities and many of them will not play until the instructional league opens in mid-September.

Comments

Rich,

What do you make of Matt LaPorta? It was one of the most heavily criticized picks in the draft, but I didn't mind it too much. He was signable, was alleged to have shown the ability to play LF (a gaping hole in MIL), and projected to advance rapidly. He seems to be starting to do that (small sample size). Do you know anything beyond the numbers?

Thank you!

This is exactly what I have been looking for. Sometimes I get to see a first round pick at a local NYP league game.

Regarding the comment on Poreda, wouldn't you say there is not too much difference between short season A and low A? (I consider the Pioneer league to be SSA, since that is the highest SS team for 6 of the 8). I mean college players often go to SSA, and younger players are in low A, and the best from both levels go to A+ the next season. Also, with the Pioneer league being such a huge hitting environment, that bodes well for Aaron.

Shooty: With respect to LaPorta, I can't add a lot beyond the numbers. I was one of those who thought it was a strange pick. I've never seen him play left field so am not in a position to comment on his defense. He reminds me a bit of Paul Konerko. Both are big, power-hitting types who have played C, 3B, 1B, and OF at various times in their careers. One of the negatives on LaPorta is that he is striking out more than ever. I would keep a close eye on his SO and BB per PA as perhaps an early indicator as to how well he might do in the upper minors and majors.

John: I don't know if I would be as generous as you in trying to equate the Pioneer League with the South Atlantic or Midwest Leagues. Maybe I was a tad harsh on him although it should be noted that my intention was to warn readers about making too much of his dominating performance thus far.