World Serious Predictions
The World Series is finally upon us. Courtesy of ESPN.com, the following bullet points provide a concise look at the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Philadelphia Phillies. • The Rays have home-field advantage because the AL won the All-Star Game this season. That game was won by Rays pitcher Scott Kazmir and lost by Phillies pitcher Brad Lidge. Evan Longoria drove in the tying run with an eighth-inning hit off former Phillies closer Billy Wagner. Schedule Game 1: Phillies (Hamels, 14-10, 3.09) @ Rays (Kazmir, 12-8, 3.49) 10/22, 8:00 PM ET To find out which team is going to win the World Series, I turned to our Designated Hitters, participants in our "Who Was Your Favorite Player Growing Up?" series that kicked off Baseball Analysts, and a number of baseball insiders for their predictions. I asked our guests three questions: 1. Which team will win? 2. How many games? 3. Why? Without further ado, here is what our esteemed friends have predicted: 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. The Phillies were dreadful in interleague games this season, which doesn't bode well for the Series. The Rays have a superior rotation and with their power to left field, should be able to score runs at Citizens Bank Park. Mocking Joe Maddon for emphasizing winning in spring training might not have been such a good idea in retrospect. 1. Phillies 2. 6 games. 3. Howard, Rollins, Utley, Burrell, Werth, and Victorino. The Phillies have a superior lineup and the Rays' power output cannot continue. The Rays 20% HR/FB in the ALCS shouldn't happen again. Rays probably have an edge in the pitching department but Hamels has been stellar and and I think Myers is in for a better series. Just a hunch. 1. Rays. 2. 6 games. 3. I'm picking the Rays because I'm an AL fan, I'm familiar with the team, I enjoy watching them, and I'm impressed that they beat the Sox in 7. However, I'm not overly confident in the selection even if it proves to be a popular one. I could see the Phillies pulling out an upset in five. But I'm drinking the Tampa Bay Kool Aid, so nevermind my hunches, go Rays. 1. Phillies 1. Rays 2. 7 games 3. I believe the Rays have the edge with starting pitching. 1. Rays 2. 6 games 3. Predicting who will win the World Series is a 50/50 endeavor, so I'm in on this action. The match-ups should be great with the Phillies getting a slight edge in the pitching dept. while the Rays have power and speed on the offensive side. Other observations? I predict there will be bar room conversations around the country like, "Is that Dave Navarro behind the plate for the Rays? Wasn't he in Jane's Addiction?" Odds are that FOX will figure out some way to insert "More Cowbell" into every bases loaded jam sequence when games are at the Trop. And finally, I predict that Bud Selig will say for the umpteenth time during the Fall Classic that with the Rays going from worst to first, this is truly the Golden Age of Baseball. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. They'll bludgeon anyone not named Cole Hamels. The big Phillies advantage -- the bullpen -- will be neutralized as Philadelphia's will have to go to work too early, and Tampa Bay's won't have to come in under pressure. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. Because they have significantly better #2 through #4 starters. 1. Phillies 2. 7 games. 3. It comes done to game 1: If Cole Hamels is effective and the Phils win game 1, I think the Phils could win in seven games. If they lose game 1, the Rays will win in 5. The thing that concerns me most about the Phils is their starting pitching behind Hamels. They might be able to ride more big postseason games from Myers and Blanton, and Moyer might bounce back after two horrific postseason starts, but more than likely, they won't. The Phils offense started to pull it together, to get the whole offense firing on all cylinders, toward the end of the Dodgers series. If they start to sputter it will hurt them. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. The Rays in the World Series—it seemed to be the Impossible Dream in the team’s history entering 2008. And just when it seemed they were assured of a spot in the Fall Classic it appeared the Rays were headed for a classic fall. 1. Phillies. 2. 7 games. 3. Because I'm an NL fan, and I don't want to be torn between rooting for my prediction or rooting for the NL team. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. They have home field advantage, they play in the tougher league, and their performance this season was no worse than the Phillies. Anything can happen in a seven-game series, but the Rays definitely have to be the favorites. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. These are two fairly similar teams (both teams can mash, both can run, both have killer bullpens, neither hits for average all that well). The difference is that the Phillies have one truly reliable starter and the Rays have three. That's why I'm taking the Rays (although personally I hope I'm wrong; the Phillies -- by almost any measurement the least successful of the original 16 franchises -- need a little love from the baseball gods). 1. Rays 2. 5 games. 3. The Rays hitters are motivated. How else can you explain the numbers they posted during the League Championship Series against the Red Sox - a veteran team that is hardly a pushover? The young trio of Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena was almost unbelievable in the series, especially in terms of power numbers. Combined throughout the seven games, the group hit 11 home runs and drove in 25 runs. Hardly a one-dimensional offence, the Rays also stole 10 bases and took their fair share of walks (25). In the NL League Championship Series, the Phillies hit five homers as a team and a pitcher (Brett Myers) was tied for second on the club with three RBI. As for pitching, the Phillies starters were hardly dominant by allowing 30 hits and 13 walks in 25.1 innings. In 43.2 innings, the Rays starters allowed 37 hits and 18 walks. 1. Rays 2. Not provided. 3. After picking the Rays to win in seven games against the Red Sox in the New York Post, I'm staying on their bandwagon. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 1. Rays 2. 5 games. 3. This is our generation’s 1969 Mets, although Longoria is a little young to play Ed Charles. 1. Phillies 2. 6 games (W-L-W-L-W-W). 3. Phillies have the best pitcher (Hamels), best closer (Lidge) and two best hitters (Utley and Howard) among the two teams. If Hamels can pick up the win on the road in Game One, I have no doubt with their big bats behind them, Myers (twice), Moyer, Blanton and Hamels (again) can pick up three more wins. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. I see it as a tight matchup. I give the edge to Tampa Bay based on starting pitching. The deeper Philly bullpen will get called often in the Moyer and Blanton starts. I see David Price continuing his success and playing a key role. If Game 7 comes down to Garza vs. Moyer, look for me in the cashier's line. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. I think it comes down to David Price. He makes the Phillies’ bullpen advantage slightly less vast. I hope Ryan Howard doesn’t mind facing Price about, oh, six times in the late innings this series. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. The Rays have around a 57% chance of winning. They have a 19% chance of winning in 6 and 18% of winning in 7, so I have to go with Rays in 6. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. Talent, talent, talent -- Rays have a No. 1 overall pick (Price), No. 2 (Upton), No. 3 (Longoria), plus former first-rounders like Baldelli, Pena, Floyd, Howell (supplemental), Kazmir . . . just a very talented team that has been led well by veterans and the rare manager who makes a difference, Joe Maddon. Philly has talent and a better bullpen plus an ace in Hamels, but I think Tampa's offense is more varied, it's more athletic, better defensively and has better starting pitching. 1. Rays 2. 5 games. 3. The Phillies simply can't match up with the Rays. Cole Hamels is better than anyone he'll face, but otherwise every Tampa Bay starter will have the edge on his mound opponent. And the Phillies' lineup, though solid, wouldn't score more runs than the Rays if both were in the same league. Brad Lidge is the Phillies' one obvious edge ... but as good as David Price has looked lately, even that's not a sure thing. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. It has been a while since we have had a great, close World Series. These things usually go in cycles. Plus this one reminds me a lot of '91, with two relatively surprising teams playing, and that series was incredible. I pick the Rays because of their starting pitching, home field, and, yeah, a little bit of destiny. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. Home field advantage is the largest difference between the teams. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. Rays bullpen matches up well against Phillies lefty leaning lineup and bench and Rays bench is more varied than Phillies. Also, Rays starting staff is deeper. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. The Rays have home-field advantage and a huge psychological advantage after holding off that late charge by the Red Sox in the ALCS. They'll be very loose and the Phillies will be a little rusty after a week's layoff. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. I think this will be a great Series, featuring two evenly matched, interesting teams. I like the Rays' starting pitching better, but I think the Phillies have the better bullpen and offense. For those who like intangibles and dramatic storylines, the Series will feature the oh so woefully inexperienced Rays vs. the prospect of a Brad Lidge meltdown. What fun! I would look for fielding plays to make a difference. The Rays have had good defense this year, though they made some errors in the second half of the Boston series. The Phillies' defense is even better. I have making predictions--can't we all just get along and enjoy the games???--but if forced I will pick the Rays in seven. The AL is the superior league and the Rays' starting pitching is looking good. 1. Phillies 2. 7 games. 3. Philadelphia's bullpen provides the big edge. Barring some masterful deployment of heretofore lesser options like David Price and perhaps even Edwin Jackson by Joe Maddon, I think the Rays will be outclassed in the relief pitching department. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson are better than any option at the Rays' disposal. Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler seem to be limping to the finish line. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. The Phillies will win one start from Hamels and scratch out another from one of the other starters, but the Rays showed that they can hit the ball over the fence. Frequently. More frequently than the Phillies. 1. Rays 2. 7 games. 3. The Rays won more regular season games in a more difficult league. They did exceed their pythag W-L by a few games, but even taking that into account, I favor them over the Phillies. 1. Rays 2. 6 games. 3. Just betting on the better regular-season team. Cole Hamels will make the Phillies ultra-competitive, and I think the games will be close more often than not. But I just think Tampa Bay will prevail. Of our 32 entrants, 26 are going with Tampa Bay and only six with Philadelphia. Nobody is predicting a sweep, three (Hulet, Langill, and Neyer) see the Rays taking the Phillies in five games, 12 are picking TB in six, and ten see the AL champs needing all seven games to win it all. Among the half-dozen PHI supporters, 50% believe the NL champs will beat back the Rays in six and 50% think it will go the full seven. As for me, I will go along with the consensus and choose the Rays in 6. Tampa Bay won the AL East, the toughest division in baseball, and the American League once again is the superior circuit. Add the fact that the Rays have home-field advantage, and it seems to me that the 200:1 long shots at the beginning of the season are poised to win their first World Series championship ever. |
Comments
I agree with the consensus as well. Rays in 5 for me. I think that the Rays starting pitching will be too much for the Phils. Also I like the Rays' young guys to go out and hit like "teenagers". Meaning they will step up to the plate without any fear and swing freely.
Rich, have you disclosed any and all conflicts of interest?
Posted by: Wimbo at October 22, 2008 10:18 AM
And from the guy who missed the bus and needed his mom to drive him to the party:
1. Which team will win?
Rays
2. How many games?
Six
3. Why? (one or two brief observations/opinions)
The two teams have very equivalent frontline talent, but the Rays go deeper, and that advantage is considerable with regards to the rotations. Cole Hamels is the best starter either team has, but the Phils' skittishness towards putting him on a 1-4-7 schedule limits that advantage, and Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza are all better than the Phillies' next three starters. Look ahead to a Game Seven: ALCS MVP and Game Seven hero Matt Garza or Jamie Moyer, who hasn't totalled six postseason innings in his two starts? Easy call.
Posted by: Jay Jaffe at October 22, 2008 10:28 AM
Ever notice how many people predict a World Series to go six games, and how few Series actually go six games?
Posted by: Bill Deane at October 22, 2008 10:44 AM
Bill -- I think it's because if you say 4 or 5, you're saying something bold about one team's strength in relation to the other's, and if you say 7, you're basically saying you have no idea which team is better.
Saying six is basically saying "I think team X is better than team Y, but not so much that you can later rub how wrong I was in my face, OK?"
In other news, I picked the Rays in six.
/Cynical? Moi?
Posted by: Craig Calcaterra at October 22, 2008 11:19 AM
I think you are onto something, Wimbo. I find it odd (pun intended) Rich referred to the Rays as "the 200:1 long shots at the beginning of the season"...
Posted by: Joe at October 22, 2008 11:24 AM
Anyone who picked either team to win in 5 (Neyer, et al.) should run down to their nearest sports book and make a bet on their favored team for the series and for each of the individual games.
In order for a team to have a better chance to win in 5 than in 6 or 7, they would have to be an enormous favorite in each game. In fact, the break even point would be if team A were almost a 70% fave in games 1, 2, 5, and 7 (and then around a 62% fave in games 3-5). You should be betting your house on your team to win game 1 (which is around even money in Vegas) and for the series.
To have a team favored to win in 5 games (as opposed to 6 or 7) they would have to be around an 82% favorite for the series!
Posted by: MGL at October 22, 2008 2:05 PM
As an adjunct to the above discussion, Brad Sullivan, in a post on the SABR-L board today, wrote, "There have been five World Series played since the last seven-game series in 2002. Should it fail to reach the ultimate game again this year, it will become the second-longest stretch in major league history, the other five-year spans coming in 1903-08 (no Series in '04 and best-of-nine in '03) and 1935-39. There's still a lengthy stretch before the all-time mark of 11 (1913-23) is challenged (best-of-nine from 1919-21.)"
Posted by: Rich Lederer at October 22, 2008 3:28 PM
Like Jaffe...missed timing mech.
Rays in 6.
Mainly as a tribute to Julio Franco's Minosoesque one and only one AB for them in 1999.
Posted by: Repoz at October 22, 2008 5:12 PM
"Ever notice how many people predict a World Series to go six games, and how few Series actually go six games?"
If I flip a coin 20 times, what would you pick for the number of heads? 10? Really? Ever wonder how infrequently that would happen?
Posted by: MGL at October 22, 2008 8:49 PM
I can't help but think that by everyone jumping on the Rays bandwagon, that people are stealing their mojo. They're at their best when people are doubting them.
Posted by: Greg at October 24, 2008 10:34 AM