For two seasons running now, I have decided to run a piece in this space putting myself out there with picks on Over/Under MLB team win totals. The 2009 over/unders are out and the season gets underway tonight, so let's give it another go. Here is how I introduced 2007's predictions.

Many would argue that the crux of Sabermetrics is that you can predict a team's win total by analyzing a team's ability to score and prevent runs. Virtually all other research aimed at determining what contributes to a baseball club's winning efforts, on both an individual and team-wide level, is derived from this finding. Sabermetric projection mechanisms with these principles at their core offer a neat opportunity for the enterprising individual to take advantage of Vegas over/under win totals.

Now, projections are never fool-proof and are often downright inaccurate. Just ask Tigers fans from last season [2006]. But I happen to believe that the astute fan has the opportunity to stick one to Vegas on these (hey, it makes up for football season). So without further ado, let me try my hand at each MLB team. I will offer up my prediction (over or under) and then briefly account for why I believe the arbitrage opportunity exists. And yeah, I will be on the record here so just as I stated back on Valentine's Day, feel free to check back and ridicule me if it turns out I am just dead wrong on a lot of these.

Last season I had a rough year (slightly below .500) but I went 21-9 in 2007. Onto my picks...

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National League

Arizona - Over 86 (-115) Under 86 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Barring 200 innings from Max Scherzer and bigtime jump seasons from two of Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Conor Jackson and Justin Upton, the back end of the rotation and lineup are just not good enough to allow Arizona to contend.

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Atlanta - Over 84.5 (-115) Under 84.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much but I will take the over. By adding Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami, the Braves have dramatically bolstered their starting pitching. Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur figure to improve and whatever you think of the man, Garret Anderson figures to imorove upon Gregor Blanco.

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Chicago Cubs - Over 92.5 (-115) Under 92.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

I like the over here because they won 97 last year and with all due respect to Kerry Wood, the Cubbies managed more-or-less a "pure addition" off-season. They should get an additional 100 innings from Rich Harden in 2009 and they managed to add Milton Bradley, the American League's finest hitter from 2008.

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Cincinnati - Over 78.5 (-115) Under 78.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

The bull case for this offense rests on Brandon Phillips bounce-back, big steps forward from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto and a return to form for starters Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Any two or three of these things seem probable to me but for the Reds to be a .500-type team, they need to fire on all cylinders. I don't see it happening.

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Colorado - Over 76.5 (-115) Under 76.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

They won 74 games last year and have lost Matt Holliday and Jeff Francis off of last year's team. Sure, there will be some guys bouncing back from injuries and I am as excited as anyone to see Chris Iannetta get some regular hacks but no. Not with this group.

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Florida - Over 75.5 (-115) Under 69 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much at all - this looks like a good line to me. But I would be excited to get behind a pitching staff's like Florida's. With all of the high-K guys, there's tons of potential there and while the walks will in all likelihood preclude them from pushing 80 wins, you never know. Sometimes pitchers with talent like Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad and Ricky Nolasco can put it together.

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Houston - Over 72.5 (-115) Under 72.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

That looks right to me. They're not good, but they have enough individual stars sprinkled throughout the roster to stay out of truly awful territory.

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Los Angeles Dodgers - Over 85 (-130) Under 85 (even)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Since the o/u number looks about in line with how I would call it, just give me the even money.

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Milwaukee - Over 81.5 (-115) Under 81.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

Here is last year's remark on Milwaukee.

I am buying the "Rickie Weeks is poised to go crazy" story.

OK, seriously, I am buying it this year. Perhaps more importantly, C.C. or no C.C., they won 90 ballgames last season. Sub-.500 would be a long way to fall.

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New York Mets - Over 90.5 (-120) Under 90.5 (-105)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

89 wins last season coming back with a wholly dependable bullpen. I will take the "they will choke again" discount I think we are getting with this line, too.

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Philadelphia - Over 88 (-125) Under 88 (-105)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

How does Chase Utley bounce back? Is Cole Hamels really a 225-inning horse? Jamie Moyer? Still? Raul Ibanez will not replicate what Pat the Bat did. Joe Blanton gets pounded this season at Citizens Bank Park. Should I go on?

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Pittsburgh - Over 69 (-115) Under 69 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

The coming Andy LaRoche developmental leap...that the bullpen is pretty solid...that Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit are both very much legit ballplayers.

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San Diego - Over 71 (-115) Under 71 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

That Tadahito Iguchi and Khalil Greene will be replaced by warm bodies, and that Chris Young and Jake Peavy will todd anywhere between 100 and 150 more innings than they did in 2008. I don't think the Padres are contenders by any stretch, but I do think this might be the easiest money on the board.

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San Francisco - Over 79 (-115) Under 79 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not a whole lot but give me the under by just a smidge. The lineup remains a wreck and I don't see the pitching taking any meaningful steps forward this season. Maybe Barry Zito bounces back a bit and Matt Cain takes a step in the right direction, but then Tim Lincecum probably comes off of his Cy Young numbers from 2008.

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St. Louis - Over 83.5 (-115) Under 83.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much at all. I will concede that this starting rotation might have the widest range of outcomes in terms of how it performs in 2009 - they may well turn out to be quite good. But I can't get too comfortable with Chris Carpenter coming off injury and Joel Pineiro doing the Joel Pineiro thing. Is Kyle Lohse dependable? Is Adam Wainwright a number one? I don't know.

This is the call in which I am least confident.

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Washington - Over 72.5 (-115) Under 72.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

That catcher Jesus Flores is the only guy that does not hit in this lineup. Check it out - pretty much all of the Nats offensive regulars have it in them to really rake.

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American League

Baltimore - Over 72.5 (-115) Under 72.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Matt Wieters, probably a few wins better than Gregg Zaun, starts in the Minors so that the O's can optimally manage his service time. I think their upside is a pesky 75-win team that wears down pitching staffs but with Wieters out and that pitching staff running out there, I will take the under on these guys.

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Boston - Over 94.5 (-115) / Under 94.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

The pitching is more or less guaranteed to be among the best in the American League. On offense, nobody except the catcher is a below average performer for their respective positions. Excellent, deep pitching and a solid, consistent offensive attack is a repeatable formula for teams interested in posting bigtime win totals.

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Chicago White Sox - Over 77.5 (-125) Under 77.5 (-105)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Aging bats anchor a mediocre offense. Fluky 2008 performers set to return to earth headline a pitching attack that strikes fear in nobody now that Vazquez has headed south.

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Cleveland - Over 85.5 (-115) Under 85.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

That Cliff Lee regresses and all of CC's innings are gone. So that 85-win Pythag team set to get contributions from Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner once again unfortunately finds itself turning to Carl Pavano to contribute to its championship hopes. I understand the Cleveland bull case, the optimism, all of it. I am just not buying it.

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Detroit - Over 81.5 (-115) Under 81.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Injury and age-related questions everywhere. I will admit that Rick Porcello is a damn interesting wild-card, however. If I am wrong, I'll be cool with it if I get to see that guy pitch lights-out this early on in his career.

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Kansas City - Over 77 (-115) Under 77 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Why the hell not? They have some good starting and relief pitching, and a few interesting bats that could carry the lineup.

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Los Angeles Angels - Over 87.5 (-115) Under 87.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Just too many injuries in that starting rotation. Also, check out Mark Teixeira's output as an Angel sometime.

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Minnesota - Over 83 (-115) Under 83 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Scott Baker and Joe Mauer starting the year on the DL makes me skiddish about this call but I like the Twins a lot this year. I think their pitching will be deep and consistent, and expect them to edge Cleveland for the division title.

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New York Yankees - Over 94.5 (-115) Under 94.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much - the Yanks are excellent. I just think the A-Rod injury could pose problems all season long.

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Oakland Athletics - Over 82 (-115) / Under 82 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and most of all, Matt Holliday represent significant upgrades over the guys they will be replacing from the 2008 squad. Travis Buck bounces back, and some of that young talent that Billy Beane hopes is ready steps forward.

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Seattle - Over 73 (-115) Under 73 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much at all. They were a 67-win Pythag team last year, figure to get Erik Bedard back and they have drastically improved their defense, which figures to help save some runs. I worry about the offense but I think Russell Branyan could offer a nice little unexpected boost over and above Richie Sexson's, um, output in 2008. I guess I just think six wins is a little much.

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Tampa Bay - Over 89 (-115) Under 89 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Nothing, really. B.J. Upton emeges as a consistent regular but the bullpen regresses. They get a little boost from more Scott Kazmir innings, and that one month without A-Rod may mean an extra win or two for them. I like them closer to 92 wins.

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Texas - Over 74.5 (-115) Under 74.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

No more Milton Bradley, but plenty of other sticks. There are also holes in this lineup but then, the defense improves with Elvis Andrus and the starting pitching should take a step forward. Shake it all together, and I guess I just think there are too many problems with this roster. Hopefully JD keeps his job, though. It won't be too long before the Rangers field a winner.

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Toronto - Over 77.5 (-115) Under 77.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

That this is the year Toronto falls right off the cliff. Talent defections, financial problems, injuries...it's going to add up in an ugly way north of the border this season.

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OK folks, have at it. Who do you like? Where did I mess up? What's the one over/under pick you take with your life on the line?

Oh, and Happy Baseball. Should be one hell of a season.