Comparing K/100 Pitches with K/9 IP
All of us like pitchers who can rack up strikeouts. There is no argument between statheads and the scouting community over the value of missing bats. In a nutshell, Ks are the out of choice. The more, the merrier. We also know that pitch counts are important. The fewer, the better. As such, it seems logical that combining high strikeout and low pitch totals is a recipe for success. In February 2006, I stated, "The best way to measure such effectiveness is via K/100 pitches." The formula is (strikeouts divided by total pitches) x 100. In addition, strikeouts per pitch has a stronger correlation to runs allowed than strikeouts per inning or strikeouts per batter faced. The technical aspects of these measurements were explained in Strikeout Proficiency (Part Two). Let's take a look at the K/100P rankings as compared to K/9 IP. (For context, among those who qualified for the ERA title, the average starter threw approximately 100 pitches and completed 6 1/3 innings. The average number of K/100 pitches was 4.66.) Top 10 K/100 Pitches Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Erik Bedard 182.0 221 2946 7.50 10.93 1 Johan Santana 219.0 235 3345 7.03 9.66 4 Jake Peavy 223.3 240 3610 6.65 9.67 3 A.J. Burnett 165.7 176 2649 6.64 9.56 5 Scott Kazmir 206.7 239 3609 6.62 10.41 2 John Smoltz 205.7 197 3062 6.43 8.62 12 Cole Hamels 183.3 177 2791 6.34 8.69 10 Josh Beckett 200.7 194 3100 6.26 8.70 9 Javier Vazquez 216.7 213 3465 6.15 8.85 6 Aaron Harang 231.6 218 3591 6.07 8.47 14 Erik Bedard was #1 in both K/100P and K/9. With respect to strikeouts, the lefthander had a fantastic season. He blew away the field, averaging about 0.50 higher than the closest pursuer in both measurements. Bedard, who missed the final month with a strained right oblique, was a leading candidate for the AL Cy Young Award as late as August. Signed through 2009, the 28-year-old is one of the most valuable pitching properties in baseball. Scott Kazmir ranks second in K/9 but only fifth in K/100P. John Smoltz jumps from 12th in K/9 to sixth in K/100P. Smoltz proved his proficiency by ranking among the leaders in all strikeout measurements while also placing among the leaders in throwing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.60) and inning (14.9). Smoltzie, in fact, was the only pitcher who struck out at least eight batters per nine innings and ranked among the top half in fewest P/PA – and, get this, he was 10th in the latter category. Cole Hamels, who threw the second fewest pitches per plate appearance among those with eight or more Ks per nine, goes from 10th in K/9 to seventh in K/100P. Aaron Harang, another strike thrower, also fares better in K/100P than K/9. #11-20 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Rich Hill 195.0 183 3070 5.96 8.45 15 C.C. Sabathia 241.0 209 3581 5.84 7.80 17 James Shields 215.0 184 3177 5.79 7.70 21 Chris Young 173.0 167 2884 5.79 8.69 11 Daisuke Matsuzaka 204.7 201 3480 5.78 8.84 8 Oliver Perez 177.0 174 3015 5.77 8.85 7 Ian Snell 208.0 177 3125 5.66 7.66 22 Brandon Webb 236.3 194 3437 5.64 7.39 26 John Maine 191.0 180 3270 5.50 8.48 13 Felix Hernandez 190.3 165 3005 5.49 7.80 18 James Shields leaps from 21st in K/9 to 13th in K/100P. The Tampa Bay righthander threw the sixth fewest pitches per inning (14.9), trailing only Brandon Webb, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, Roy Halladay, and C.C. Sabathia. Shields looks like the real deal. He has good stuff (including one of the best changeups in the game) and possesses a lot of polish for a second-year pitcher. If Shields has a weakness, it's in the number of home runs he has allowed thus far. #21-30 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Justin Verlander 201.7 183 3354 5.46 8.17 16 Ted Lilly 207.0 174 3240 5.37 7.57 24 Dustin McGowan 169.7 144 2702 5.33 7.64 23 Jeremy Bonderman 174.3 145 2725 5.32 7.49 25 Dan Haren 222.7 192 3635 5.28 7.76 20 John Lackey 224.0 179 3396 5.27 7.19 31 Kelvim Escobar 195.7 160 3041 5.26 7.36 28 Wandy Rodriguez 182.7 158 3036 5.20 7.78 19 Derek Lowe 199.3 147 3020 4.87 6.64 39 Matt Cain 200.0 163 3351 4.86 7.34 29 There are a number of good, young righthanders in the group above. Justin Verlander improved his strikeout rate markedly in 2007, lifting his K/100P from 4.17 to 5.46 and his K/9 from 6.00 to 8.17. With one of the best fastballs in baseball, Verlander has greatness written all over him. There's a lot to like about Dustin McGowan, Jeremy Bonderman, Dan Haren, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Matt Cain, too. The latter pitched in extreme tough luck last season (as his 7-16 record and 3.65 ERA would indicate), ranking second-to-last in run support with 3.51 RS/9. Derek Lowe is an interesting example of a pitcher who looks much better when viewed through the prism of K/100P (29th in the majors) rather than K/9 (39th). His strikeout rate was actually the highest its been since he became a full-time starter in 2002. The 34-year-old veteran sinkerballer throws strikes and induces more groundballs than any other starting pitcher. #31-40 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Boof Bonser 173.0 136 2823 4.82 7.08 32 Carlos Zambrano 216.3 177 3692 4.79 7.36 27 Jeff Francis 215.3 165 3485 4.73 6.90 34 Chad Gaudin 199.3 154 3293 4.68 6.95 33 Roy Oswalt 212.0 154 3303 4.66 6.54 40 Daniel Cabrera 204.3 166 3565 4.66 7.31 30 Jeremy Guthrie 175.3 123 2677 4.59 6.31 46 Bronson Arroyo 210.7 156 3432 4.55 6.66 38 David Bush 186.3 134 2979 4.50 6.47 42 Matt Belisle 177.7 125 2793 4.48 6.33 45 Like many others who walk more than their fair share, Carlos Zambrano's K/100P ranking slips a bit as compared to his K/9. On the other hand, strike throwers Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Belisle moved up a number of spots. #41-50 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Fausto Carmona 215.0 137 3137 4.37 5.73 55 Gil Meche 216.0 156 3579 4.36 6.50 41 Scott Olsen 176.7 133 3060 4.35 6.78 35 Kip Wells 162.7 122 2812 4.34 6.75 36 Doug Davis 192.7 144 3356 4.29 6.73 37 Adam Wainwright 202.0 136 3175 4.28 6.06 48 Jamie Moyer 199.3 133 3148 4.22 6.01 51 Brad Penny 208.0 135 3227 4.18 5.84 54 Dontrelle Willis 205.3 146 3491 4.18 6.40 44 Roy Halladay 225.3 139 3330 4.17 5.55 57 The above pitchers rank in the bottom half of all qualified starters in K/100P. The best performers, like Fausto Carmona, Brad Penny, and Roy Halladay, throw strikes and/or induce an inordinate number of groundballs. Pitchers can succeed with K/100P over 4.00. However, it becomes much more problematic when the rate drops below this threshold. #51-60 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Tim Hudson 224.3 132 3165 4.17 5.30 62 Kevin Millwood 172.7 123 2953 4.17 6.41 43 Andy Pettitte 215.3 141 3395 4.15 5.89 53 Nate Robertson 177.7 119 2890 4.12 6.03 49 Miguel Batista 193.0 133 3259 4.08 6.20 47 Tom Gorzelanny 201.7 135 3312 4.08 6.02 50 Joe Blanton 230.0 140 3481 4.02 5.48 58 Kyle Lohse 192.7 122 3043 4.01 5.70 56 Paul Maholm 177.7 105 2644 3.97 5.32 60 Greg Maddux 198.0 104 2703 3.85 4.73 70 Tim Hudson lowered his walk rate from 2006 (3.26 BB/9) to 2007 (2.13 BB/9) by more than a third, and it did wonders to his ERA (plunging from 4.86 to 3.33). The 32-year-old righthander also increased his GB rate and decreased his HR rate to near career bests. #61-70 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Barry Zito 196.7 131 3411 3.84 5.99 52 Tim Wakefield 189.0 110 2881 3.82 5.24 63 Jose Contreras 189.0 113 3006 3.76 5.38 59 Mark Buehrle 201.0 115 3103 3.71 5.15 64 Chien-Ming Wang 199.3 104 2861 3.64 4.70 71 Jason Marquis 191.7 109 3029 3.60 5.12 65 Josh Fogg 165.7 94 2675 3.51 5.11 66 Jarrod Washburn 193.7 114 3271 3.49 5.30 61 Jeff Suppan 206.7 114 3328 3.43 4.96 68 Matt Morris 198.7 102 3037 3.36 4.62 72 An extreme groundballer like Chien-Ming Wang can operate effectively with such a low strikeout rate. He needs to throw strikes and keep the ball down in the zone. If he loses the ability to do one or the other, his value will drop accordingly. #71-80 K/100P Name IP SO Pitches K/100P K/9 K/9 Rk Matthew Chico 167.0 94 2829 3.32 5.07 67 Woody Williams 188.0 101 3148 3.21 4.84 69 Paul Byrd 192.3 88 2836 3.10 4.12 76 Braden Looper 175.0 87 2807 3.10 4.47 73 Jon Garland 208.3 98 3293 2.98 4.23 74 Brian Bannister 165.0 77 2603 2.96 4.20 75 Carlos Silva 202.0 89 3057 2.91 3.97 78 Livan Hernandez 204.3 90 3361 2.68 3.96 79 Tom Glavine 200.3 89 3341 2.66 4.00 77 Aaron Cook 166.0 61 2407 2.53 3.31 80 You can have any and all of these pitchers. In order to survive, much less thrive, without racking up strikeouts, pitchers need to limit the number of walks and keep the ball on the ground. Matt Chico ranks poorly in all three areas. The southpaw is young and could improve, but the odds are against him and his mid-80s fastball to succeed unless he exhibits pinpoint control in the future. Good luck to the team that ends up signing Carlos Silva to at least a four-year contract for upwards of $12 million per season. You have been forewarned. Silva does a great job at limiting the number of bases on balls, but he is living on the edge. Livan Hernandez is another free agent who is likely to disappoint his new team. This guy is simply no good. He has outlived his usefulness as a MLB pitcher. To wit, Hernandez's K/9 not only dropped by 1.37 last year to the lowest level of his 11-year career but wound up below 4.0 for the first time ever. At the same time, his BB/9 (3.48) was the highest since 1998, resulting in the lowest K/BB ratio (1.14) of his career. By the latter measurement, he was the worst qualified starting pitcher in the majors last year. Did I mention that Livan also had the second-highest HR/9 (1.50)? Woody Williams was the only pitcher who allowed more long balls, and he just happened to rank in the bottom ten in K/100P as well. Many of these pitchers, including the newly acquired Jon Garland of the Los Angeles Angels, will find themselves in the Southwest Quadrant (below-average K and GB rates) when I unveil this series during the off-season. Take a look at the pitchers who inhabited this quadrant in 2006. There's not a lot to get excited about other than Joe Blanton. Strikeouts. Pitch totals. Putting strikeouts in the numerator and pitch totals in the denominator allows us to measure dominance and efficiency or what I have referred to it as "strikeout proficiency." As a standalone stat, I believe it tells us more than K/9 or K/BF. |
Comments
Really interesting stuff. One of my favorite articles of every offseason is Peter Gammons' interesting 3-year trendlines in various statistics. I'm curious what some of the trendlines would look like, and whether relievers throw enough pitches to make a comparable stat for them since it is such a good barometer of starting pitchers.
Posted by: Evan at November 26, 2007 8:39 AM
This measurement works well for relievers, too, because strikeouts are such an important component to their success. However, the efficiency aspect is not quite the same as it is for starters.
Posted by: Rich Lederer at November 26, 2007 9:00 AM
I'm trying to find a good source for these statistics so I can look at pitchers that just missed the IP cutoff. In particular, I was thinking that Chad Billingsley would come out pretty good in this category.
Posted by: Rob at November 26, 2007 9:34 AM
Interesting, yes. The problem I have with this statistic of K/100pitches is that it's a pain to calculate because # of pitches is not a common box score stat. It's very easy for me to go to baseball-reference.com, copy and paste a pitcher's career into excel, and quickly assess K/BB. If I was going to take some time to gather data and assess how good a pitcher is, I wouldn't use K/100pitches, I'd use something more complex that has a better relationship to inherent pitcher skill or quality.
Posted by: Mike at November 26, 2007 11:20 AM
Is there any evidence that K/P is a better indicator of FUTURE success than K/IP, K/BF or K/BB?
Posted by: joe at November 26, 2007 3:51 PM
Mike -- why do you believe that K/100P is insufficient?
Posted by: Rob McMillin at November 26, 2007 6:52 PM
Chad Billingsley's K/100P was 5.60 or 20% above the average for all qualified starting pitchers. He actually fared better in K/9 at 8.63 or 30% above the mean. His strikeout rate benefited by pitching 35 of his 147 innings in relief. Chad struck out 40 in 35 IP as a RP and 101 in 112 IP as a SP.
Like many young pitchers, Billingsley throws a lot of pitches as evidenced by his high walk totals (64 in 147 innings or 3.92 BB/9). I would expect him to become more efficient as he gains experience.
Posted by: Rich Lederer at November 26, 2007 10:53 PM
> There is no argument between statheads and the scouting community over the value of missing bats.
"Some features of these figures gave me a great surprise. They showed me that the difference between a great pitcher and a run-of-the-mill thrower is astoundingly slight. The great ones allow only two less men to reach first base per nine innings. More surprising still, I found that the ability to strike batters out was not a determinant of good pitching in the real sense... It turned out too that strikeouts had an extremely low, correlation figure when measured against earned run average." -- Branch Rickey
Out of curiosity Rich, did you run a simple win/loss regression line on, say, the top 20 vs the rest of the league? :)
Posted by: Roy at November 27, 2007 12:14 AM
Roy: I don't understand your question, but the correlation between K/100P and ERA among the qualified pitchers last year was -.531. A quick glance of the top ten and bottom ten suggests that strikeouts have a very important influence on ERA. To wit:
Which group of pitchers would you rather have?
Posted by: Rich Lederer at November 27, 2007 10:16 AM
If you're looking for a 2-variable stat that has a high correlation with ERA, use K/HR instead. Among last year's qualifiers the correlation is -.729 -- much more impressive. Peavy is #1 at 18.46, Livan is last at 2.65.
Posted by: Guy at November 27, 2007 12:37 PM
Mostly because of what Rich just posted. The usefulness of a statistic, in my eyes, is a factor of it's ability to accurately describe something, and its ability to easily be calculated. K/BB in my eyes is much easier to calculate than K/100 pitches - due to getting # of pitches, not the division :-) But I don't think K/100 is meaningfully better than K/BB at ascribing skill or predictive ability to pitchers. If I'm going to take the time to figure out K/100 for all pitchers, I'd rather spend that time getting a more accurate measure.
Guy, that's interesting - but I'd bet K/100 is more predictive than K/HR.
Posted by: Mike at November 27, 2007 1:22 PM
I'm not surprised, Guy. The denominator is home RUNS. As such, I would expect it to have a higher correlation to any run measure.
Posted by: Rich Lederer at November 27, 2007 11:31 PM
Interesting work Rich, but one thing, I really wish you would reformat your tables so it would be easier to see your results. From your top 10, the stat lines for Bedard, Peavy, Smoltz, and Hamels aren't aligned properly with the column heads.
Posted by: Justin at November 28, 2007 8:36 AM
The alignment depends on your browser. Using Internet Explorer, the columns are perfectly aligned on my computer. Firefox (and other browsers such as the iPhone's Safari) may interpret the tables differently. If you have a solution that will work for all tables (while at the same time keeping them simple with pre tags), let me know. Thanks.
Posted by: Rich Lederer at November 28, 2007 8:52 AM