The Baseball Analysts: K/100P Leaders and Laggards

K/100P Leaders and Laggards

By Rich Lederer

There are a number of preferred statistics when it comes to analyzing the performance of pitchers. Over the years, Cy Young voters have weighed wins and winning percentage more heavily than any other stat. ERA gained popularity among the masses throughout the last century, then adjusted ERA (aka ERA+) gained traction after Baseball-Reference rolled out its site and made this stat easily accessible online.

With the advent of Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (and DIPS 2.0) earlier this decade, analysts began to pay more attention to strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. As a result, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is now recognized as a better measurement of value than wins, winning percentage, ERA, and ERA+. Some even prefer xFIP, Luck Independent Pitching Statistics (LIPS), or tRA, which, at a minimum, normalize HR/FB rates or break down the types of batted balls.

One can also value pitchers based on counting stats, such as Pitching Runs or Runs Saved Against Average. Runs can be converted into wins, giving us Win Shares, Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). The main differences generally involve the use of run estimators and definition of replacement levels.

I like looking at K, BB, and GB rates. Strikeouts exert a greater influence over pitching performance than walks and groundball rates, such that K > BB > GB. Within strikeouts, one can use K/9 (good), K/BF (better), or K/100 pitches (best). K/100P has a higher correlation to runs allowed than strikeouts per batter faced or strikeouts per inning. Granted, K/100P has vestiges of BB and BABIP mixed into the formula, but there are arguments against K/9 and K/BF as well.

I have written several articles on K/100P and summarized my findings here.

Strikeouts. Pitch totals. Putting strikeouts in the numerator and pitch totals in the denominator allows us to measure dominance and efficiency or what I have referred to it as "strikeout proficiency." As a standalone stat, I believe it tells us more than K/9 or K/BF.

With the foregoing as a backdrop, let's take a look at the K/100P results for 2009. The stats are courtesy of ESPN and the list includes all qualified pitchers. (I discuss some of the leaders and laggards below the table.)

Num	PLAYER	TEAM	IP	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	K/9	PIT	K/100P
1	Javier Vazquez	ATL	92.1	75	18	112	3.41	1.01	6.22	10.92	1407	7.96
2	Tim Lincecum	SFO	96.0	85	26	112	2.72	1.16	4.31	10.50	1512	7.41
3	Justin Verlander	DET	98.0	83	30	118	3.31	1.15	3.93	10.84	1609	7.33
4	Jake Peavy	SDG	81.2	69	28	92	3.97	1.19	3.29	10.14	1302	7.07
5	Zack Greinke	KAN	101.0	85	18	106	1.96	1.02	5.89	9.45	1518	6.98
6	Johan Santana	NYM	89.1	79	27	97	3.22	1.19	3.59	9.77	1416	6.85
7	Jon Lester	BOS	86.1	89	28	100	4.69	1.36	3.57	10.42	1487	6.72
8	Dan Haren	ARI	101.0	70	13	96	2.23	0.82	7.38	8.55	1444	6.65
9	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	75.1	78	36	82	5.85	1.51	2.28	9.80	1280	6.41
10	Felix Hernandez	SEA	101.2	92	31	98	2.74	1.21	3.16	8.68	1561	6.28
11	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	90.0	65	41	93	3.00	1.18	2.27	9.30	1492	6.23
12	Roy Halladay	TOR	103.0	95	12	88	2.53	1.04	7.33	7.69	1442	6.10
13	Cole Hamels	PHI	76.1	90	14	72	4.24	1.36	5.14	8.49	1215	5.93
14	Chad Billingsley	LAD	98.2	81	44	96	2.83	1.27	2.18	8.76	1646	5.83
15	Josh Beckett	BOS	91.1	83	32	88	3.74	1.26	2.75	8.67	1515	5.81
16	Randy Johnson	SFO	75.2	75	26	69	5.00	1.33	2.65	8.21	1203	5.74
17	Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	90.2	85	33	87	3.18	1.30	2.64	8.64	1527	5.70
18	Josh Johnson	FLA	105.0	85	25	88	2.66	1.05	3.52	7.54	1566	5.62
19	Max Scherzer	ARI	73.0	70	31	74	3.58	1.38	2.39	9.12	1322	5.60
20	A.J. Burnett	NYY	87.0	81	44	82	4.24	1.44	1.86	8.48	1468	5.59
21	John Danks	CHW	74.1	74	26	70	4.48	1.35	2.69	8.48	1261	5.55
22	Ted Lilly	CHC	91.2	77	20	75	3.04	1.06	3.75	7.36	1368	5.48
23	Scott Richmond	TOR	71.1	64	23	61	3.79	1.22	2.65	7.70	1115	5.47
24	Jered Weaver	LAA	96.0	76	28	78	2.53	1.08	2.79	7.31	1426	5.47
25	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	76.2	57	46	75	3.76	1.34	1.63	8.80	1386	5.41
26	Joba Chamberlain	NYY	69.1	63	37	64	3.89	1.44	1.73	8.31	1183	5.41
27	Gavin Floyd	CHW	89.0	87	34	73	4.65	1.36	2.15	7.38	1372	5.32
28	Adam Wainwright	STL	98.0	94	36	84	3.58	1.33	2.33	7.71	1580	5.32
29	Scott Baker	MIN	81.0	78	13	68	5.22	1.12	5.23	7.56	1284	5.30
30	Matt Garza	TAM	89.1	71	36	78	3.83	1.20	2.17	7.86	1478	5.28
31	Francisco Liriano	MIN	77.2	83	35	68	5.91	1.52	1.94	7.88	1305	5.21
32	Matt Cain	SFO	94.2	78	37	76	2.28	1.21	2.05	7.23	1474	5.16
33	Ryan Dempster	CHC	87.1	77	35	72	3.92	1.28	2.06	7.42	1399	5.15
34	Aaron Harang	CIN	93.1	105	20	77	3.66	1.34	3.85	7.43	1504	5.12
35	Kevin Slowey	MIN	84.2	102	14	67	4.04	1.37	4.79	7.12	1315	5.10
36	Carlos Zambrano	CHC	70.2	61	31	59	3.44	1.30	1.90	7.51	1160	5.09
37	Joe Blanton	PHI	76.2	87	24	67	5.28	1.45	2.79	7.87	1325	5.06
38	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	89.1	85	38	76	3.73	1.38	2.00	7.66	1512	5.03
39	Edwin Jackson	DET	94.1	75	25	72	2.39	1.06	2.88	6.87	1436	5.01
40	Randy Wolf	LAD	93.0	79	28	69	3.29	1.15	2.46	6.68	1409	4.90
41	James Shields	TAM	101.2	107	21	71	3.36	1.26	3.38	6.29	1474	4.82
42	Josh Outman	OAK	67.1	53	25	53	3.48	1.16	2.12	7.08	1103	4.81
43	Kenshin Kawakami	ATL	75.1	74	31	59	4.42	1.39	1.90	7.05	1231	4.79
44	Carl Pavano	CLE	81.2	96	17	59	5.73	1.38	3.47	6.50	1244	4.74
45	Kevin Correia	SDG	80.1	74	27	61	4.26	1.26	2.26	6.83	1301	4.69
46	Cliff Lee	CLE	104.0	115	23	74	2.94	1.33	3.22	6.40	1588	4.66
47	Dave Bush	MIL	81.0	83	26	59	5.67	1.35	2.27	6.56	1267	4.66
48	Johnny Cueto	CIN	91.2	78	25	66	2.55	1.12	2.64	6.48	1441	4.58
49	Chris Volstad	FLA	89.1	88	26	65	4.74	1.28	2.50	6.55	1422	4.57
50	Roy Oswalt	HOU	90.1	98	26	67	4.48	1.37	2.58	6.68	1466	4.57
51	Gil Meche	KAN	87.2	91	33	68	4.11	1.41	2.06	6.98	1498	4.54
52	CC Sabathia	NYY	102.0	85	31	70	3.71	1.14	2.26	6.18	1568	4.46
53	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	87.1	81	31	62	2.89	1.28	2.00	6.39	1409	4.40
54	Barry Zito	SFO	83.1	83	37	63	4.54	1.44	1.70	6.80	1435	4.39
55	Brian Tallet	TOR	82.2	70	38	58	4.68	1.31	1.53	6.31	1323	4.38
56	Doug Davis	ARI	91.2	84	42	65	3.53	1.37	1.55	6.38	1524	4.27
57	Dallas Braden	OAK	94.0	96	25	62	3.26	1.29	2.48	5.94	1455	4.26
58	Jarrod Washburn	SEA	83.1	75	24	54	3.24	1.19	2.25	5.83	1293	4.18
59	Mark Buehrle	CHW	93.2	85	21	58	3.17	1.13	2.76	5.57	1392	4.17
60	Paul Maholm	PIT	92.1	103	32	61	4.48	1.46	1.91	5.95	1501	4.06
61	Mike Hampton	HOU	67.0	70	27	43	4.70	1.45	1.59	5.78	1074	4.00
62	Kevin Millwood	TEX	106.2	97	33	65	2.62	1.22	1.97	5.48	1664	3.91
63	Brett Anderson	OAK	69.0	86	18	45	5.74	1.51	2.50	5.87	1153	3.90
64	Kyle Davies	KAN	79.2	81	41	54	5.76	1.53	1.32	6.10	1389	3.89
65	Andy Pettitte	NYY	86.2	96	33	57	4.26	1.49	1.73	5.92	1469	3.88
66	Brian Bannister	KAN	71.2	72	23	44	3.89	1.33	1.91	5.53	1137	3.87
67	Chris Young	SDG	76.0	70	40	50	5.21	1.45	1.25	5.92	1299	3.85
68	Todd Wellemeyer	STL	80.2	97	32	51	5.36	1.60	1.59	5.69	1336	3.82
69	Ian Snell	PIT	78.0	83	41	51	5.08	1.59	1.24	5.88	1342	3.80
70	Brad Penny	BOS	71.0	86	24	47	4.94	1.55	1.96	5.96	1256	3.74
71	Joe Saunders	LAA	92.1	89	28	51	3.80	1.27	1.82	4.97	1377	3.70
72	Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	86.2	94	25	55	5.09	1.37	2.20	5.71	1487	3.70
73	Braden Looper	MIL	77.2	87	21	48	5.21	1.39	2.29	5.56	1318	3.64
74	Micah Owings	CIN	72.0	74	36	45	4.50	1.53	1.25	5.63	1236	3.64
75	Tim Wakefield	BOS	88.2	90	35	49	4.47	1.41	1.40	4.97	1351	3.63
76	Rick Porcello	DET	73.2	73	23	41	3.54	1.30	1.78	5.01	1135	3.61
77	Livan Hernandez	NYM	79.2	89	22	45	4.18	1.39	2.05	5.08	1256	3.58
78	Jeff Niemann	TAM	72.1	73	33	44	4.23	1.47	1.33	5.47	1230	3.58
79	Armando Galarraga	DET	73.2	88	33	45	5.62	1.64	1.36	5.50	1258	3.58
80	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	89.0	92	32	48	5.16	1.39	1.50	4.85	1395	3.44
81	Andy Sonnanstine	TAM	76.1	97	21	43	6.60	1.55	2.05	5.07	1255	3.43
82	Zach Duke	PIT	99.0	95	23	47	3.18	1.19	2.04	4.27	1377	3.41
83	Derek Lowe	ATL	92.1	89	29	51	4.09	1.28	1.76	4.97	1500	3.40
84	Scott Feldman	TEX	71.2	63	23	39	4.02	1.20	1.70	4.90	1162	3.36
85	Jamie Moyer	PHI	72.1	93	18	42	6.35	1.53	2.33	5.23	1261	3.33
86	Aaron Cook	COL	83.0	87	28	42	4.23	1.39	1.50	4.55	1276	3.29
87	Ross Ohlendorf	PIT	82.0	85	22	42	4.94	1.30	1.91	4.61	1276	3.29
88	Joel Pineiro	STL	83.2	95	11	39	3.76	1.27	3.55	4.20	1189	3.28
89	John Lannan	WAS	85.1	82	32	42	3.38	1.34	1.31	4.43	1310	3.21
90	Jeff Suppan	MIL	76.1	89	32	41	4.48	1.59	1.28	4.83	1291	3.18
91	Jason Marquis	COL	97.0	96	34	44	3.71	1.34	1.29	4.08	1412	3.12
92	Vicente Padilla	TEX	71.1	72	34	37	4.79	1.49	1.09	4.67	1188	3.11
93	Brad Bergesen	BAL	77.2	79	17	35	3.94	1.24	2.06	4.06	1153	3.04
94	Nick Blackburn	MIN	93.1	92	25	39	3.09	1.25	1.56	3.76	1369	2.85
95	Trevor Cahill	OAK	78.2	78	32	37	3.89	1.40	1.16	4.23	1316	2.81
96	Mike Pelfrey	NYM	76.0	85	27	34	4.74	1.47	1.26	4.03	1273	2.67
97	Jon Garland	ARI	83.0	95	34	33	4.99	1.55	0.97	3.58	1359	2.43
98	Shairon Martis	WAS	80.2	77	36	30	5.13	1.40	0.83	3.35	1262	2.38

Has Javier Vazquez been the best pitcher in baseball this year? One could certainly make a strong argument on his behalf. The 32-year-old righthander leads the majors in not only K/100P by a fairly wide margin but also in total strikeouts and K/9 and is second in WHIP and third in K/BB. His 4-6 W-L record belies just how well he has pitched this season. His FIP, in fact, is three-quarters of a run below his ERA.

If Vazquez hasn't been the top pitcher this year, then how about Dan Haren, who is eighth in K/100P but first in WHIP and K/BB? While the 28-year-old righty may be in the midst of a career year, there are a couple of stats (notably, a BABIP of .238 and a strand rate of 86.0%) that suggest his ERA may be unsustainably low. I picked Haren to win the Cy Young this year so I'm not overly surprised by his stellar season.

Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay are building on their great seasons last year, while Zack Greinke (April and May) and Justin Verlander (late April to the middle of June) have been the most dominant pitchers in the game at various times over the first three months of the season.

Among the top dozen (or those with K/100P rates over 6.00), Jorge de la Rosa is probably the one pitcher who looks like he doesn't belong. While I would take the other 11 pitchers over him, I believe the 28-year-old southpaw is much better than his 3-7 W-L record and 5.85 ERA would indicate. He pitches in a tough ballpark and has been victimized by a high BABIP and a low strand rate. The young fireballer is not all that different from teammate Ubaldo Jimenez even though the latter has posted a 6-6 record with a 3.73 ERA thus far. If de la Rosa can improve his command and control (far from a given), he could eventually reach his vast potential.

At the other end of the spectrum, Jon Garland and Shairon Martis are pitching about as poorly as any regular starter in the big leagues. Both righthanders have not only struck out fewer batters per 100 pitches and inning than any other qualifier but they have allowed more walks than strikeouts, a recipe for disaster no matter what one's BB rate may be.

Comments

Good job, Rich. Original and first run :)

Posted by: Joe at June 22, 2009 12:14 PM

Thanks, Joe. The second sentence is his comment is an inside joke as I recently turned down one of Joe's submissions to serve as a DH due to the fact that we require guest columnists to write original, first-run pieces.

Posted by: Rich Lederer at June 22, 2009 1:59 PM

Anyone find it amusing that Kershaw and Joba have the same rate?

Posted by: Jar Jar Binks at June 22, 2009 2:37 PM

Kershaw and Joba are 1-2 in the Majors in BB/9 innings. Oddly enough, I don't see anyone advocating that Kershaw should be Broxton's set-up man.

Posted by: kevinM at June 22, 2009 2:46 PM

Hey, hey. Let's keep that rejection on the down-low. Haha. But it is nice to see that Vazquez is finally performing great, rather than just average, as he has two of the past 3 seasons. How much do you think this has to do with him pitching in the NL? I know that the subject comes up often, but it is the inferior league. So it must be addressed.

Posted by: Joe at June 22, 2009 3:02 PM

By the way, Rich. Do you know how I can find a hitters hot/cold zone where it shows slugging rather than batting average? If a hitter is batting .270 on balls down and in, I want to know how much power is involved. Thanks.

Posted by: Joe at June 22, 2009 7:01 PM

Even in the AL, Vazquez's components have always been better than his ERA. His career FIP is 3.88 as compared to an ERA of 4.28. He consistently strikes out significantly more batters and walks substantially fewer batters than the league average. However, he has been prone to give up home runs at a somewhat higher than league average. It's hard to fathom why he has been credited with more losses than wins over the years. His excellent stuff and command has made him an enigma to many, but I think he has pitched much better than his W-L and ERA would suggest.

With respect to your second question, no, I don't know of any site that publishes such information. The pitchf/x and hitf/x data could break that down though.

Posted by: Rich Lederer at June 22, 2009 9:41 PM

Thanks anyway.

Posted by: Joe at June 22, 2009 10:12 PM

K/100P isn't "best" as it doesn't isolate strikeout ability as well as K/TBF. Of course it correlates to runs allowed; K-BB/9 would also correlate well but that doesn't mean it's a superior metric. Nearly everyone in the baseball community acknowledges this except you.

Posted by: Andrew at June 26, 2009 12:07 PM