Both the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox lost out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes and are now left to figure out which roster tweaks remain both available and viable this off-season. In itself, not going to $180 million, $190 million, $200 million for Tex's services is perfectly defensible but that does not change the notion that if you are not improving while teams around you are, you're effectively getting worse. For both teams to maintain the competitive advantages they have enjoyed for the last handful of seasons, they would be wise to consider other options.

One player that both teams might consider is Adam Dunn. He is the same age as Teixeira and has experience at first base. This piece will go into some depth comparing the two to see if the Angels or Red Sox should consider Dunn, who will be available at a fraction of Teixeira's cost. Dunn has indicated he would like to play right field for the Cubs and the Dodgers have now reportedly turned their attention from Manny Ramirez to Dunn, but perhaps those teams that were so hot for Teixeira should hop into the bidding for Dunn's services as well.

There is one item to get out of the way before we dive in. Dunn has been an absolutely awful outfielder. Interestingly, four of the remaining corner outfield free agents this off-season are four of the worst fielders in all of baseball. Dunn, Ramirez, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are all terrible with the glove. Thanks to Fangraphs, here are their average UZR/150 figures for the past three seasons.

         UZR/150
Dunn     -16.6
Abreu    -14.9
Ramirez  -19.4
Burrell  -17.5

UZR/150 is defined on the site as follows:

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

That Dunn has been so terrible in the field is an important point because it dramatically hampers his overall value as a player when you consider him for an outfield position. This is why, if you want to compare Tex (a terrific defensive first baseman) and Dunn in terms of, say, Baseball Prospectus' WARP or Fangraphs' Value Wins, you see that the numbers pretty drastically favor Tex. So for the purposes of this exercise, or at least initially, we are going to stick to offense (we will circle back to Dunn's first base defense in a little bit).

Let's start with a look at each player's career batting numbers.

        AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+  OWP  
Dunn   .247  .381  .518  130  .670 
Tex    .290  .378  .541  134  .673

Readers of this site do not need a tutorial on OPS+ but some may not be familiar with Offensive Win Percentage which, most simply, means the percentage of games your team would win if it consisted of nine of that given player, assuming average run prevention on the same team.

As you can see, there is not much difference here. But let's dig in a little more. Pictured below is a comparison of Tex and Dunn by wOBA (weighted on base average), a number created by Tom Tango to improve upon OPS by appropriately weighting on-base and then scaling it to league average on-base (like how EQA does the same with batting average). After the graph, I list each of their figures starting in 2003, because that was Tex's rookie season:

wOBA    
       Dunn    Tex
2003   .353   .345
2004   .403   .389
2005   .391   .405
2006   .365   .374
2007   .399   .406
2008   .383   .410

And how about the last three seasons, an arguably more reliable indicator of future performance?

       AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+
Dunn  .244  .379  .518  126 
Tex   .298  .393  .541  141

Teixeira clearly outperforms Dunn when you look at their three-year numbers, but just as we did with the wOBA numbers, let's once again have a look at their numbers since 2003:

       AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+
Dunn  .245  .379  .525  131 
Tex   .290  .378  .541  134

The narrowing is attributable to a few factors. For one, Dunn was terrific in 2004 (146 OPS+) and not so great in 2006 (114 OPS+). Adding his 2004 numbers is worthwhile because a 24 year-old who puts up such a great season is in all likelihood capable of doing it again at 29. This should be taken into consideration by incorporating more data; three-year splits omit Dunn's best work. And just so readers are clear that I am not cherry-picking, Dunn had a mediocre 2003 as well, which is accounted for. For Teixeira's part, his three-year numbers favor him because he has been consistent for much of the three years, and then went nuts as an Angel. If you run his numbers from Opening Day 2006 through his last game as an Atlanta Brave, his line is .286/.373/.536. Add in his Angels stretch of .358/.449/.632 and you get the three-year numbers above, .298/.393/.541. We don't want to eliminate these numbers. They happened, after all. What we want to do is bring in more data, so we note the numbers going back to 2003 and observe that there isn't a whole lot of difference between the two players offensively.

To be sure, there are stylistic differences between the two players. For one, Teixeira hits for more average and therefore will be a better RBI-man. Dunn walks more, and will therefore see more pitches per plate appearance. And here are their differences versus lefties and righties:

          vs. RHP        vs. LHP
Dunn  .252/.398/.539  .235/.359/.474
Tex   .281/.371/.541  .309/.393/.541  

Tex is a switch hitter and remarkably consistent from both sides. This will offer the Yankees tactical advantages, as opposing managers will not be able to use their bullpen to match-up against Tex in later innings. On the other hand, though his productivity is still respectable, Dunn falls off against lefties. But most pitchers are right-handed, and Dunn enjoys a considerable advantage over Tex in this department.

There exists, relative to Tex, limited data on Dunn's ability to play first base.

Fielding as 1B
       Games  Innings   UZR/150
Dunn    127     891.2   -12.5 
Tex     853   7,345.2     3.5    

Clearly Tex has been better, say a full win per season better, but what if Dunn were to play there more regularly? Isn't it conceivable that he could improve his first base glove work with more consistent play at the position? I don't think that he would ever catch Teixeira, but I think he could be within a win of him over the course of a season.

The case for Dunn hinges on four different points. First, as shown above, Teixeira and Dunn are very much comparable hitters. Tex was unreal down the stretch in 2008 and Dunn was mediocre in 2006 but if you go even further back - their numbers since 2003, their career numbers - you can see that there isn't much difference in productivity between them.

Second, while Dunn is a notoriously bad defensive player, he has earned the lion share of that reputation while toiling in the outfield. He is not a very good first baseman either but a couple of points warrant mentioning regarding his first base defense. There is a much narrower band between the worst and the best first baseman than there is for, say, the worst and best shortstop or even the worst and best right fielder. Relatively speaking, first base defense is of marginal importance. Moreover, it's likely that Dunn would improve at first if he got more regular time there.

Third, Dunn is known to be a laid back guy with a questionable work-ethic and desire to be the best he can be. This is important because he is currently a free agent, and teams need to perform their diligence in order to determine if he would be a worthwhile hire. So if I am the Red Sox, I say "We understand that you have been in Cincinnati for all of these years. Maybe you let your weight slip at times, maybe you didn't dig it out all the time on the base paths, maybe you lolligagged for a blooper or two here and there. But we still think you have the ability to be special. Will you join the reining AL MVP and Kevin Youkilis during the off-season at Athletes Performance Institute in Tempe? Because if you do, or if you make a similar commitment off the field, you will be a hero here in Boston."

And then just sit back. See what he has to say and make a judgment call. Corporations, Law Firms, Medical Facilities and just about any other entity that competes in some form or another has to make judgment calls on their talent. If Dunn lost 25 pounds and took 1,000 ground balls a day in the off-season, I think many would agree that he could be a top-tier MLB performer. Dunn's natural athleticism cannot be questioned; he was once recruited to be a quarterback at The University of Texas. He can become a decent first baseman. But I do think that signing Dunn would have to hinge on the belief that he would commit to being the best he could be.

Finally, teams need to take value into consideration. It's likely that the team that nets Dunn this off-season will do so for half as many years as Tex demanded and at an annual salary that is also half of what Tex signed for. From what I can see, when you take all of these components together, maybe Dunn would be a viable Plan B.

How does Dunn fit in with the contending teams that missed out on Teixeira? Rich Lederer emailed me regarding how it might play out with the Angels and had the following to say:

Dunn Could DH for the Angels and play occasionally in left or at first. Vladimir Guerrero in RF, Juan Rivera in LF, Kendry Morales at 1B, and Dunn at DH would be the way to go but Dunn could also play LF (allowing Rivera to DH or give Vlad a day off in RF) or 1B (with Morales serving as the DH). Gary Matthews could back all of them up, playing a corner outfield spot or DH'ing.

All that said, my sense is that Dunn is not a Mike Scioscia type. As such, I don't see the Angels signing him.

I think that all sounds about right. But how about the Red Sox? They were ready to trade Mike Lowell when they were in the running for Tex and there is no reason to believe that still wouldn't be the case with Dunn. Lowell is fragile, and has had all of one productive season in the last four or so. Dunn could play first with Youkilis at third. What makes this option even more interesting is that if Boston decides they do not want to re-sign Youkilis or pick up David Ortiz's option after the 2010 season, they have a new 1B/DH combo ready to go. Lars Anderson, who hit .316/.436/.526 finishing up the season in AA Portland last season, would be ready to assume first base duties. Dunn could move to DH. If Boston wanted to re-up Youkilis, he could still play third. Given personnel choices coming down the pike, adding Dunn would seem to make sense for Boston.

Make no mistake, Adam Dunn is not Mark Teixeira. He is not quite the hitter and he is most definitely not the defensive asset that Tex is. But the decision comes down to this. If you were willing to go more or less all-in on Tex, if he was your guy this off-season and you were ready to pony up nearly $200 million for eight years (and trade the 2007 World Series MVP in the process), how can you be uninterested in even kicking the tires on Dunn at a quarter of the total financial outlay, half the contract duration and half the annual salary? Make me Boston's GM and this is an option that I would be pursuing aggressively.

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We conclude the SWOT series today with a look at the AL East. To my eye it's the best division in baseball but NL East, NL Central or AL Central fans might disagree. The Rays are coming off a breakout year, the Yanks are reloading, Boston looks strong again and who knows? Maybe this off-season's prize will end up in Baltimore?

Tampa Bay Rays

Strengths: The Rays starting pitching looks remarkable. James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza all made names for themselves last post-season, while uber-talent David Price steps in for the 2009 season. Their least promising starter is 26 and threw 193 innings at a 102 ERA+ clip in 2008.

Weaknesses: Jonny Gomes is currently penciled in as the Rays designated hitter. He is a career .235/.329/.455 hitter who has been declining ever since a strong 2005 season. Tampa Bay would be well served to take a long look at Milton Bradley or Jason Giambi for the position.

Opportunities: The Rays have a number of guys who are on the verge of stardom. To highlight just one, B.J. Upton walked 97 times last season but didn't find his power stroke until the post-season, when he hit seven home runs and slugged .652. Look for him to put it together this season.

Threats: While the Rays offensive core of Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Upton is capable of shouldering the load for a championship level offense, there is a chance that the Rays get nothing from DH, their corner outfielders, shortstop and catcher (Dioner Navarro had OPS+ seasons of 70 and 79 before last year).

Boston Red Sox

Strengths: Each Boston infielder currently set to start in 2009 will probably be, at worst, a top-5 producer at their respective positions. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis each had MVP-caliber seasons in 2008, while Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell stand out thanks to a thin crop of AL players at their positions as much as their own ability. Adding Mark Teixeira would enhance this strength of course.

Weaknesses: It is quite possible that Justin Masterson or Clay Buchholz develop into perfectly acceptable options in the rotation for the championship-aspirant Red Sox. But when you look now and see Tim Wakefield and Masterson rounding out their starting staff, it does pose concerns, particularly when you consider Josh Beckett's injury history and Daisuke Matsuzaka's imminent return to earth.

Opportunities: Getting Lowrie a full season under his belt will finally, for the first time since 2004 or so, give the Red Sox a very good option at shortstop. Also, the set-up trio of Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and the newly acquired Ramon Ramirez will stabilize the bullpen from the outset.

Threats: Aren't the following all possible? J.D. Drew misses 50 games. Jacoby Ellsbury still isn't what Boston hoped he would be. Pedroia and Youkilis each bat .290. Mike Lowell battles injuries all season long. David Ortiz just isn't what he used to be. Jason Varitek is back as Boston's catcher.

The point is, Boston's depth is a problem right now. Fortunately for them, we have a long way to go this off-season.

New York Yankees

Strengths: Look at this rotation. If C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett combine for 440 innings, if Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain are healthy and Phil Hughes finds his form, then the Yankees might find themselves back on top in the East.

Weaknesses: Those slugging Yanks we have come to know over the years are taking on a different look. And by "taking on a different look" I mean considering going into 2008 with Johnny Damon and Brett Gardner both manning starting outfield spots. New York is losing its second and third best hitters from 2008 (Giambi and Bobby Abreu) to free agency. Maybe Manny Ramirez can save what was an average offense last year.

Opportunities: Moving into a new stadium and with a lot of payroll coming off the books, New York has taken advantage of even more financial flexibility than they have enjoyed over the last few years.

Threats: There are health concerns in this rotation that could quickly sink the Yanks' hopes in a competitive AL East. All of the current starters except for Sabathia have missed significant time over the last few seasons.

Toronto Blue Jays

Strengths: With a team ERA+ of 122, the Jays featured one of the best pitching staffs they have ever fielded in 2008. A.J. Burnett and Shaun Marcum are gone, but Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond and Dustin McGowan form a nice core in the rotation. The bullpen returns more or less in place from last season.

Weaknesses: It is difficult to see where any productivity will come from in the infield. Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen are not really an acceptable corner infield combo, while there are even more questions concerning the likes of Marco Scutaro, Aaron Hill and Joe Inglett. And don't get me started on John McDonald.

Opportunities: Toronto has an open rotation slot and it will be interesting to see how they fill it. Both Casey Janssen and David Purcey have a chance to be quality MLB starters. They will compete for the spot in Spring Training next March.

Threats: With financial problems plaguing the Jays, an aging offensive core not getting any better and free agent defections hampering the pitching staff, threats abound for this club. It seems like their window is closing.

Baltimore Orioles

Strengths: Baltimore has a top-heavy offense with a number of good players. Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis are both terrific, while Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora and Luke Scott figure once again to be productive. There is an offensive core there.

Weaknesses: The pitching is just so bad. Let me list out their current depth chart as ESPN presents it:

Starting Pitcher:: Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Waters, Matt Albers, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson

Relief Pitcher: George Sherrill, Jamie Walker, Jim Johnson, Kam Mickolio, Dennis Sarfate, Jim Miller

Opportunities: Matt Wieters is a career .365/.460/.625 Minor Leaguer. Just give him the catcher job already. And man, if they sign Teixeira, the average Orioles game might be five hours long in 2009.

Threats: Huff, Mora and Roberts are all on the wrong side of thirty and will be counted upon to anchor Baltimore's only hope, their offense. Should these three fall short of expectations due to age or injury, Baltimore could be truly awful.

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2008 was supposed to be a two-team battle between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians. Cleveland had been to the 2007 ALCS and Detroit, already a strong club, added Miguel Cabrera, one of the most productive young hitters in baseball history. It was a two-team race all right, but it ended up being the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins dueling it out. Let's see how everyone is looking at this point.

Chicago White Sox

Strengths: The Sox have a trio of both starters and relievers who anchored their excellent pitching staff in 2008 and will be counted upon to do so once again in 2009. Here is how these six pitchers performed last year.

             IP    H   BB   SO    ERA+
Buehrle    218.7  240  52   140   121
Danks      195.0  182  57   159   138
Floyd      206.3  190  70   145   119
Jenks       61.7  51   17   38    174
Thornton    67.3  48   19   77    171
Dotel       67.0  52   29   92    122

A 7.18 K/9 would be acceptable as a team figure but when it is the top six pitchers on a staff that post that number, it gives me a little pause. Still, these six are a clear strength for Chicago.

Weaknesses: It's hard to see how this offense will muster a passable attack in 2009 barring a free agent pick-up or two. Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are not getting any younger and Jermaine Dye, the one other good hitter on the team not named Carlos Quentin, has been the subject of trade rumors (Dye himself is 35). Outside of these four names, it is hard to see where the productivity will come from.

Opportunities: With the core of his team aging, Kenny Williams would be wise to consider trading some of these pieces to get younger. Having already dealt Nick Swisher and Javier Vazquez, there are indications he is thinking this way.

Threats: Age and drop-off from the pitching staff could hamper Chicago's chances this season. It's a fascinating roster, one that might be able to compete for the division if all goes well this year. It is also a roster with a very small window. Either they win with this team this season, lose with this team this season (and thus their assets lose value) or they take what they have now and get younger. It will be fun to watch.

Minnesota Twins

Strengths: For the first time since 1997, Minnesota had a better OPS+ than ERA+. Joe Mauer's .399 OBP ranks third in the history of baseball among catchers with 2,000 career plate appearances. He's 26 and seems to be coming into his own after a hiccup 2007 campaign.

Weaknesses: Minnesota's biggest weakness is uncertainty in the starting rotation. The range of potential performance outcomes with this staff is probably wider than any other in baseball. They are all young and well regarded, but some combo of inconsistency and injuries have slowed them all down so far in each of their careers.

Opportunities: Man, if Francisco Liriano could ever return to his 2006 form (207 ERA+ at the age of 22!), Minnesota starts to look more like a front-runner than a team that could win the AL Central if things go right.

Threats: The Twins gave Nick Punto a 2-year, $8.5 million contract. This indicates to me that he will be playing everyday for them over the next two years. Punto had a nice season in 2008, but he is also one year removed from a 52 OPS+ year in 2007.

Cleveland Indians

Strengths: You want to see the list of center fielders with a career OPS+ at 125 or better through their age-25 season (min 2,500 plate appearances)?

           OPS+
Mantle     174
Speaker    166
DiMaggio   156
Mays       153
Griffey    147
Cedeno     132
Sizemore   125
Snider     125

Cesar Cedeno aside, that's some baseball royalty right there. So yeah, Grady Sizemore is a strength for the Indians.

Weaknesses: Outside of Cliff Lee, a most deserving Cy Young candidate, Cleveland's starting pitching was terrible last season. Trading C.C. Sabathia did not help, of course.

Opportunities: If Ryan Garko, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner can perform anything like they did at their peaks, then man, this team will be right back in the thick of things. On the pitching side, Scott Lewis will be a compelling addition to the rotation.

Threats: Garko, Martinez and Hafner may not bounce back. Martinez and Hafner are battling injuries and Garko's sub-.400 slugging percentage is a real red flag.

Kansas City Royals

Strengths: The lineup was bad in 2008, with a couple of holes and inadequate production from some of their stars. They have addressed the holes; not necessarily with stars but they will no longer have a 79 OPS+ guy at first base or a 59 OPS+ guy in center field. Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp are not superstars but they are both perfectly adequate performers on an aspirant club.

Also, check out the year Joakim Soria had last season.

Weaknesses: Oh, let's just pick a few. Jose Guillen, his bloated salary, his .300 OBP and his bad attitude would all be good places to start. Brian Bannister unfortunately coming back down to earth would be another. That the organization lacked the good sense to steer clear of handing Brett Tomko the baseball was a weakness.

Opportunities: Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar have the ability to anchor a capable staff. If the three can perform consistently in 2009, the Royals may have a chance at pushing for .500.

Threats: Kyle Davies and Bannister probably don't belong in a Major League rotation. Shortstop Mike Aviles had a terrific season in 2008 but will be hard-pressed to bat .325 again.

Detroit Tigers

Strengths: Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen combine to constitute a dependable outfield. Ordonez is a prolific slugger, Guillen consistent and Granderson has emerged as one of the game's best all around players.

Weaknesses: Somehow this pitching staff just won't come together. Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman were both great disappointments in 2008 and finally, Kenny Rogers just sucked. Nate Robertson's 6.38 ERA (70 ERA+) didn't help.

Opportunities: Verlander and Bonderman still have terrific stuff and could just as easily turn in terrific seasons in 2009 as they did disappointing ones last year. I think getting Zach Miner a season's worth of starts and Edwin Jackson should provide an upgrade over Rogers and some of the other starters they tried to cobble together last year.

Threats: While the lineup looks solid and it's not difficult to come up with a scenario in which Detroit's starters are once again good, the bullpen looks terrible. Losing Todd Jones may amount to addition by subtraction but the two anchors of their relief staff, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, have battled too many injuries to be considered dependable. Still, the off-season is young and the Tigers may yet address this issue.

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The Los Angeles Angels ran away with the AL West in 2008 but are they far-and-away the best team again coming into this season? Hard to say. Losing Mark Teixeira, or at least failing to replace him with another top-notch offensive producer, may not be as tolerable as some might think. Despite winning 100 games, the Angels were just an 88-victory Pythag team. Perhaps recognizing a newly vulnerable division rival, the A's seem to be making moves to gear up for a division challenge.

Let's have a look at how things are shaking down in the division as of mid-December.

Los Angeles Angels

Strengths: Of all the catchers in Major League Baseball who notched at least 250 plate appearances in 2008, Mike Napoli led the majors with an OPS+ of 147. I am not sure he qualifies as "flying under the radar" at this point given his .250/.400/.750 ALDS against the Red Sox, but Mike Scioscia has a nice lever at his disposal in that he can make up for a lot of lost production simply by getting Napoli into the lineup more often.

Weaknesses: Age and health in the outfield and at DH may pose problems for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Matthews, Jr and Torii Hunter all seem to be on the decline. This might be ok if there were a clear candidate in the infield to step up and carry more of the water. Minus Teixeira, it's hard to see who that could be.

Opportunities: Getting a full, healthy season from each of John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver should position the Angels to improve upon their 2008 starting pitching output, even if some drop-off from Joe Saunders can be expected.

Threats: The biggest threat to the Angels this off-season is that they fail to replenish the offense. Manny Ramirez could fit and they would love to bring back Teixeira. Short of one of these two, they would be wise to check out the middle market. Someone like Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell would help, too.

Texas Rangers

Strengths: Thanks to the hitter friendly confines of their home ballpark, the Texas Rangers almost always seem to be among the league leaders in runs scored. This has earned them the reputation as a good hitting team and a bad pitching one, a logical (if lazy) enough conclusion. Well in 2008, it really held true. The Rangers offense was their finest in recent memory, better even than the Pudge/Juan-Gone glory days offenses. Their team OPS+ of 115 comfortably led the American League.

Weaknesses: One would be hard pressed to overstate how awful their pitching was. Their starters had an ERA of 5.51 while their relievers only fared slightly better, at 5.15. Their team ERA of 5.26 on the road should dispel any notion that the staff was decent, but hampered by their home ballpark. No, they were just awful.

Opportunities: With depth at catcher, the Rangers have the potential to add some young arms. They have already dealt Gerald Laird for high-strikeout prospect Gullermo Moscoso. What would the Red Sox give up for Taylor Teagarden or Jarod Saltalamacchia?

Threats: Milton Bradley posted a .321/.436/.521 line in 2008 and was the biggest reason the Rangers offense was as potent as it was. He is a free agent but even if they bring him back, it is hard to see how Bradley would match that output in 2009.

Oakland Athletics

Strengths: The A's biggest strength, and the reason they were able to pry away Matt Holliday, is their bullpen. Combined in 2008, Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler allowed 10 earned runs in over 105 innings of work. Anything that comes close to approximating that sort of performance for Oakland will once again position them to have a terrific bullpen, even without Huston Street.

Weaknesses: Oakland's offense was just terrible in 2008. Just one regular, Jack Cust, managed to slug over .400 for Oakland last season. Holliday will help, but he will need support from guys like Eric Chavez, Travis Buck and Daric Barton if the offense is to perform at a level that allows them to contend.

Opportunities: The A's have a chance at a good rotation if Gio Gonzalez and Sean Gallagher - uber-talents both - can begin to fulfill their potential.

Threats: Have Billy Beane's wheeling and dealing ways caught up with him? Having stockpiled the farm system last year after trading away guys like Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Rich Harden, this season it looks like Beane would like to take aim at the Angels and complement his youngsters with more established talent. It works in the abstract, but when guys on the open market don't want to join your team, the strategy can be a problem.

Seattle Mariners

Strengths: As David Cameron noted in this piece, trading J.J. Putz gave Seattle perhaps the best outfield defense of any team in baseball.

By acquiring Gutierrez and Chavez, the M’s just have given themselves the ability to run out one of the best outfield defenses in baseball on days where they send a contact pitcher to the hill. A Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro outfield will make Silva and Washburn look significantly better than they really are, and by investing in the defense, the M’s have made it possible that they could salvage some value from a pair of bad contracts.

With their bad pitch-to-contact pitching staff, the more defense the better. Jack Zduriencik's first major move reflected an ability to align team strengths and weaknesses with subsequent roster constructions strategy that M's fans have not seen in some time.

Weaknesses: This team is just so bad. Their one good hitter from 2008, Raul Ibanez, is now a Phillie. Not that they should have signed Ibanez but when your one truly productive hitter from an already bad offense takes off, the next season can look daunting. The Mariners will need step-up seasons from Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, and Kenji Johjima. All are capable of better seasons than what they posted in 2008.

Opportunities: Wladimir Balentien has a history of Minor League productivity, so I think the Mariners can feel comfortable that he will be better than he was in 2008. Of non-catchers with more than 250 plate appearances, only Andy Marte posted a worse OPS+ in the American League. Another easy opportunity for the M's to improve would be for Erik Bedard to turn in a healthy season. Jeff Clement and a full season of Brandon Morrow in the rotation (if he is indeed given that shot) could provide additional upside. Clement and Morrow were Seattle's first-round picks in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

Threats: Seattle had fewer wins than any other Mariners team in a non-strike shortened season since 1978. I would say that there is not much threatening a team that has nowhere to go but up.

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With the NL Central and NL East in the books, it is now time to turn our attention to the NL West. It only took 84 wins to take the division last season, so a shrewd tweak here or there (read: not Edgar Renteria) could catapult just about anyone into contention.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Strengths: Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo and Cory Wade, who combined contributed over 220 innings of top-notch relief, all return to anchor what was one of the very best bullpens in the National League. Los Angeles is taking on free agent losses all over their roster this off-season but one area Ned Colletti can feel comfortable leaving alone is his relief pitching.

Weaknesses: Manny Ramirez posted a 219 OPS+ with the Dodgers and was the chief reason their offense went from atrocious to one of the very best. There is a chance he may be back but his departure would leave a gaping hole int their offensive attack. Similarly on the pitching side, Derek Lowe's imminent signing with someone other than Los Angeles is going to be a real blow to their staff. Over the length of his contract with the Dodgers, Lowe averaged 212 innings and in his worst ERA+ year, he still managed 114. Despite his reputation as a solid innings eater, Lowe is much, much more. Last year's 211 innings of 131 ERA+ pitching will not be easy to replace.

Opportunities: The 2006 Jason Schmidt would do the trick in replacing Lowe and even though that may seem like an unlikely proposition, it also could be the Dodgers best hope.

Threats: As of today, Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones will start in the outfield for Los Angeles. It cannot be overstated just how much these two devastated their offensive attack in 2008. Pierre hit .283/.327/.328 last year, with 79% of his plate appearances coming before August 1. Jones hit .158/.256/.249 with all but 14 of his plate appearances taking place before the trade deadline. While Manny's arrival was doubtless the catalyst for the Dodgers late-season offensive improvement, replacing Pierre and Jones helped a whole lot as well.

        OPS
APR    .769
MAY    .668
JUN    .644
JUL    .704
AUG    .783
SEP    .815

Arizona Diamondbacks

Strengths: Anchored by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the Snakes should once again feature terrific starting pitching. Despite throwing half their games in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments, Diamondbacks starters ended the season with the NL's third best starting pitching ERA. While Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit are unproven at the Big League level, they should have no problem replicating the combined output of Randy Johnson and Micah Owings in 2008.

Weaknesses: A lineup that was supposed to all rise up as one and become Major League standouts in 2008 decided to put it off a year. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Conor Jackson and Justin Upton - potential superstars all - did not hit the way the D-Backs needed them to in 2008 in order for them to repeat as division champs. Until a couple of them step up and show they can anchor a championship caliber offense, the offense will remain a weak spot.

Opportunities: I have already mentioned them. Scherzer, Petit and the young offensive core all have the ability to develop into terrific Major League contributors. Should a handful of these guys get there in 2009, Arizona will be contenders again.

Threats: Signing Felipe Lopez to take over for free agent Orlando Hudson was a savvy enough, under-the-radar move. Still, Lopez has put up some dud seasons (.245/.308/.352 in 2007) and asking him to fill in for one of baseball's most consistent second basemen in Hudson may be too tall an order.

Colorado Rockies

Strengths: Guess who is the same age as, plays the same position as, and had better rate statistics than 2008's National League Rookie of the Year? Chris Iannetta of the Rockies, a 25-year old who seems like he might be one of the better catchers in baseball for years to come. A solid defender with great command at the plate, here is how he stacked up in 2008 amongst NL Catchers with at least 300 plate appearances.

           OPS+
McCann     134
Doumit     128
Iannetta   127
Soto       120
Martin     106
Snyder     103

Weaknesses: Colorado ranked 14th in National League Defensive Efficiency in 2008.

Opportunities: Bounce back from Troy Tulowitzki and Garrett Atkins, combined with more playing time for Ian Stewart, should make the infield offense (ex Todd Helton) much more productive. On the pitching side, Jeff Francis should be better, Greg Smith should add some depth and with a tick or two more command, Jorge de la Rosa (128 K's in 130 IP) should emerge.

Threats: Carlos Gonzalez replacing Matt Holliday could kill this offense, and I am afraid that Todd Helton will not be posting another 144 OPS+ season.

San Francisco Giants

Strengths: Tim Lincecum won the CYA in just his second MLB season. Matt Cain, who is even younger than Lincecum, also had a very nice 2008 campaign. Any hope the Giants have for 2008 rests with these two. Not Edgar Renteria; their hopes don't rest with him.

Weaknesses: Their offense was the weakest in the division and help does not appear to be imminent. Starters not named Cain or Lincecum took to the hill 95 times for the Giants in 2008 and posted a 5.32 ERA while playing home games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks around.

Opportunities: If Aaron Rowand can return to form, with Fred Lewis and Randy Winn flanking him, the outfield offense might not be too bad.

Threats: If Lincecum or Cain falter at all, San Francisco's season is finished. To their credit they hung in there for much of 2008 but that was in large part due to their won-loss in games started by Lincecum.

San Diego Padres

Strengths: When you don't adjust for park, you might think that San Diego's offense is a big problem for them. This is just not the case. They are about average at the plate, thanks to standouts Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles, and some nice supporting parts as well.

Weaknesses: The starting pitching, especially if they end up dealing Jake Peavy, is scary bad. Chris Young would assume the number one role and after that, it is hard to see how they can cobble together anything even resembling a Big League staff. The rebuilding process for the Padres, especially given the confusing way their front office seems to operate, figures to be a long and painful one.

Opportunities: If Kevin Kouzmanoff can fulfill his potential and Young can toss 200 innings, that should help bump the Padres up from their 63-win total in 2008. Chase Headley starting from the outset should help, too.

Threats: I have a hard time seeing how Luis Rodriguez, a career .257/.316/.343 hitter, is a viable Major League option as an everyday shortstop, but maybe I am missing something. It's nice to help the bullpen and all, and however frustrating he may have been at times because he was not living up to expectations, the fact remains Khalil Greene was a pretty good player.

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Every year as the Hall-of-Fame vote nears, the debates over certain players intensify. As part of this tradition over the last few years, you can set your watch to a Dan Shaughnessy mail-in supporting the candidacy of Jim Rice. Shaughnessy's case for Rice and, in fairness, almost any writer's case for Rice, invariably contains the same three components.

One, there is a baseless assertion that Rice was "feared."

Shaughnessy, from yesterday's Boston Globe:

Rice was dominant. Rice was feared.

From The Boston Globe, January 9, 2008

He was more feared than Tony Perez, who is in the Hall of Fame.

I doubt Dan took the time to actually look into it but Perez was intentionally walked almost twice as many times as Rice was in his career.

In fact, when I look at this article from Shaughnessy from December of 2007, I know he didn't look into it.

People who played and watched major league baseball from 1975-86 know that Rice was the most feared hitter of his day. Managers thought about intentionally walking him when he came to the plate with the bases loaded.

What an insult to the managers of Rice's day. He was far too enticing of a double-play candidate to intentionally walk with the bases loaded. Even If there are no outs, the bases are full and you feel you have to give up a run, don't walk Rice. Just let him give you the two outs he probably will anyway. Rice ranks tied for 179th on the all-time intentional walk list. Included among the others with 77 career intentional walks are the likes of Geoff Jenkins and Clay Dalrymple (among others). On the other hand, Rice ranks sixth all-time in GIDP's, an exceptionally astounding tidbit when you consider that Rice had 9,058 plate appearances in his career. The five players ahead of him on the all-time list all had north of 12,300 plate appearances. Rice was an absolute out machine and if he had the longevity of most Hall of Famers, he would have been the Sadaharu Oh of double plays - so far in the clear of the next closest guy that his record would have been as safe as can be.

The second major component of a Shaughnessy Jim Rice Hall of Fame case contains statistical cherry picking that even the most hard headed flat-earthers would have to admire. Park factors don't matter, great on-base men that inflate your RBI totals don't matter. You just regurgitate numbers as though they have any meaning at all without context.

Also from yesterday...

...when Rice retired in 1989, he was one of only 13 players with eight or more seasons of 20 homers and 100 RBIs. The others were Ruth, Foxx, Gehrig, Aaron, Mays, DiMaggio, Killebrew, Musial, Ott, Schmidt, (Ted) Williams, and Banks.

Shaughnessy from 12/6/05

Of the 17 players (who've been on the ballot) boasting at least 350 homers and a .290 average, all are in Cooperstown -- except for Rice and Dick Allen. He is the only player in major league history with three consecutive seasons of 35 homers and 200 hits. In the 12 seasons spanning 1975-86, Rice led the American League in games, at-bats, runs, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging, total bases, extra-base hits, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

The case against Rice is simple.

1) Playing home games in Fenway drastically inflates the value of his production. Hitting in the same lineup as players like Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans (a much, much better Hall candidate btw) inflates his RBI total. Context matters.

2) He did not play for a very long time by Hall standards; did not play at a HOF level for enough seasons.

3) His defense or base running were not such that they make up for his batting statistics, which fall well short of HOF caliber.

The stats Shaughnessy reels off amount to noise in the presence of these items.

Finally, the Shaughnessy Rice defense will in all likelihood contain a jab at the rational among us who choose to devote some time to analyzing where players stack up against one another. Here is Shaughnessy yesterday:

On the other hand, we have members of Bill James Youth who've never been out of the house who believe Rice has no business being in the Hall.

For one, the "Bill James Youth" comment is a thinly veiled Adolf Hitler reference...in a sports column...about the Hall-of-Fame candidacy of Jim Rice. Stay classy, Dan.

Second, I mean, are we still doing the "blogger/stat geek lives in his or her parents' basement" thing? In 2008? Really? The web is here to stay, Dan. How's that NYT stock you've amassed over the years holding up?

******

Shaughnessy ends his piece yesterday with this:

Guess you had to be there. Or maybe talk to some of the players and managers who were there.

Now, it's possible that Shaughnessy means that you actually had to be physically "there". Let's say he doesn't, however. First, he was in Baltimore while Rice put up his best seasons so Shaughnessy himself wasn't really "there" but for fifteen or so nights a season. Second, such a stringent qualifier would discount the opinions of too many of his BBWAA brethren (I'm looking at you, Jenkins) who were not "there" to see Rice all that often.

So let's assume he means "you had to be paying close attention to baseball at the time when Jim Rice was playing." That's fair enough. Contemporary opinion should matter for something I suppose. I happen to believe that stats tell most, if not all, of the story if you know which numbers to look at and don't cut corners. But I don't think it's unreasonable to contend that contemporary opinion matters.

Well guess who started writing about baseball in earnest in 1977, Rice's first great season? None other than Bill James. And if you have read over Rich Lederer's Abstracts on the Abstracts series, you find that James devoted a lot of effort, smack in the middle of Rice's career, to analyzing what kind of player Rice was. Let's take a look.

Here is James from the 1978 Baseball Abstract:

"A number of numerical attacks on Reggie Jackson's status as a superstar have attempted to downgrade him by making statistical inferences which I think are misleading...He is described as a ballplayer who has never hit .300--but that is lilke describing Roberto Clemente as a guy who never hit 30 home runs, or Ty Cobb as a player who never hit 20. The fact remains, Jackson does an awful lot of things well, and most often does them well when his team needs them. His On-Base percentage last year was .378, better than most .300 hitters, and it's a more important statistic. His excellent SB% (.850), GIDP/AB ratio (1/175), and slugging percentage (.550) add up to a hell of a lot more than the eight singles by which he missed .300. But more to the point, Jackson has never played a season in a good hitting ballpark. His three home parks, in Oakland, Baltimore, and New York, are, except for Anaheim, the 3 toughest places to hit in the league. To compare his stats in Yankee (sic) to those of, say, Jim Rice in Fenway, is just ridiculous."

"It is difficult to say anything intelligent about the Red Sox without discussing the park they play in. The public perception of this team is that of a heavy hitting outfit with a suspect pitching staff. But the fact is that the heavy-hitting Boston offense, in 81 road games, scored only 365 runs, essentially an average total, while the 'mediocre' Boston pitching and defense limited their opponents to 305 runs on the road, the lowest total in the league. You might want to read