Baseball prospects are far from sure bets, products of attrition that disappoint far too often. However, that does not stop the collective hope of fan bases, who watch and read about these players and project an organizational up-tick because of them.

In writing my annual prospect list from SI.com, I received nearly one hundred e-mails, evidence of this on a fantastic scale. The information age has brought people closer to prospects than ever, and now, the valuation of top prospects seems to be at an all-time high. Over the course of today (Friday), I will go through questions posed to me in the comments section of Tuesday's post and via e-mail, answering as many as possible. Also, if more questions arise from people, drop them in the comments section here, and we'll get to them as well. Here's a refresher course on each of the series of articles:

Honorable Mentions
Prospects 75-61
Prospects 60-46
Prospects 45-31
Prospects 30-16
Final 15 Prospects

If you need catching up, I'm Bryan Smith, co-founder and former writer on this site. I wrote my annual prospect list at SI.com, but gained permission from the site to run the final installment at Baseball Analysts on Tuesday. Rich has been gracious enough to allow to finish today, creating a mailbag that has annually accompanied this feature. Enjoy!

How would you "tier" this list? Where are the drop-offs from "uber-prospect" to "really really good prospect" to "really good prospect"?

If you need reminder of the list, click here, and scroll towards the bottom of that page. To answer this question, I can say that the minor leagues has four uber prospects. The top four players are absolutely fantastic prospects, and my confidence in their future success is very high. Delmon Young was #1 on this list a year ago, but is #2 now, despite being closer to the Major Leagues. Those four represent the utmost tier of the list.

After that, the next tier is probably a big one, something like 5 (Brandon Wood) to 27 (Mike Pelfrey). Ranking of some players within that tier is pretty obvious, but nonetheless, these players project as future All-Stars, but all of whom do worry me in some sense. Whether it is Brandon Wood's strikeouts, Andrew Miller's control or Tim Lincecum's health, something is holding these players back right now. After this, tiering becomes more difficult, but eye-balling it, the last few tiers would go something like 28-45, 46-62, and 63 to eightysomething. Each tier is made up of many like prospects, and each prospect has a pretty glaring weakness.

Would you say this is a strong prospect list compared to '06, '05, '04? It seems there's a lot of talent. I'm only asking because I feel the tops of those years--Felix, the '05 Young, Mauer, and maybe B.J. Upton at one point--were all "better" prospects than Gordon. Am I wrong?

In my honorable mention article at SI.com, I noted that the minor leagues seem to have more talent than ever. I really do attribute this to the gains made in utilizing information, combining statistics and scouting reports to draft most effectively. While dogmatic organizations tend to be at the back of farm system rankings, those who can look at all the information make this the deepest list I have ever written.

I wrote above that there were only four uberprospects, but when can you remember there were four prospects as good as these four at once?

Also, it was very difficult for me to not rank some of those within honorable mention in my top 75. I had comments written out for guys like Jeremy Jeffress and Eric Campbell, but ultimately, depth pushed them out. If I'm bored in the future, I could probably come up with another 50 names that just missed making the honorable mention. There has not been a more fun time to evaluate prospects in the history of baseball, I say.

How good of an indicator do you feel this list is in relation to a team's overall farm system strength? In other words, how worried should an organization be if it has poor or minimal representation on the list?

Not especially worried, I would say. Top-heavy prospects are important for farm system strength, but they are one component - teams need star power prospects, depth in prospects, and must have graduated prospects recently to get high grades from me. By looking at the number of players in my top 100, that only tells you about how many top-heavy players each team has.

Nonetheless, organizations with two players or less in the top 100 do represent some of the worst farm systems in the game: Washington, San Diego, Toronto, etc. These teams have a long ways to go - the Padres and Blue Jays must start being better in the Major League draft. I think Washington isn't far from having a good farm system again, as the 2006 draft has good potential and the organization now teams together Dana Brown with the superbly talented Mike Rizzo.

If you want to get a good idea of farm system strength, try and pool together my top 100 list with some team-by-team top 10 rankings at Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. If you can get a feel for the depth in each top 10 -- a club like the Cardinals has good depth despite not being top-heavy at all -- then your organization is fine.

Where would the Japanese rookies - Daisuke Matsuzaka, Akinori Iwamura, Kei Igawa - rank on your list?

An inevitable question, as I am usually pretty stubborn by not allowing these guys entrance into my list. It stems from respect for the leagues in Japan, as they do a far better job of preparing these players for the Major Leagues than AAA could.

Matsuzaka is the easiest ranking, as his game is so complete. I think his fastball and slider combination will be among the top in the Major Leagues, and he will be all the more devastating by showing another 3-4 pitches to batters to keep them off balance. He has a history of pitching in big games, and his control has improved heavily in the last three seasons. Matsuzaka is ready for the Major Leagues, and the Red Sox landed the right-hander at a good price. With three years of an ERA around 3.50 (or less) coming, Matsuzaka would rank third on this list.

Next, rather unusually, I have Igawa. Most rank Iwamura next, but I really think Igawa can be a good Major League starter as well. Problem with Igawa is that in his scouting profile, I see shades of Barry Zito, shades of Ted Lilly, and shades of Kaz Ishii. But, it's not really useful to claim a player to be between a Cy Young pitcher and a replacement-level one, so I'm guessing he can be Lilly-esque. Igawa combines a low 90s fastball with a slow, deadline overhand curve, and mixes in a usable slider and average change. The key for him, and what proved to be Ishii's downfall, will be maximizing his fastball control in the Major Leagues. If he can set up batters for the curve effectively, Igawa could save the Yanks a lot of money on what Barry Zito would have given them. I will say Igawa would be unofficially 46 on my list, between Jeff Niemann and Chuck Lofgren.

Iwamura, the Devil Rays versatile infielder, is most worrisome to me. He brings over very good power from Japan, and the isolated slugging percentage numbers translated at a place like Baseball Prospectus seem about right to me. However, I can't get over Iwamura's strikeout numbers - no Japan player has traveled across the Pacific with those numbers. It will be extremely hard for Iwamura to hit .280 is he whiffs in 25% of his plate appearances, which I think could happen. And furthermore, since most Japan players walk less in the Major Leagues, I don't think he will walk enough to support his drop in batting average. I am not high on Iwamura at all, who would not surprise me if he turned out to be no better than Pedro Feliz. Iwamura would be in my honorable mention.

How can you rank Homer Bailey ahead of Phillip Hughes. Looking at their statistics side by side, Hughes' numbers are better in every respect. And if you say that it's the stuff that defines the greater prospect, the difference in stuff between Hughes and Bailey is minimal with Bailey having slightly more velocity although Hughes has a heavier ball. Further, if it is stuff that defines the prospect than I'm certain you can find a myriad of prospects who have the same stuff as Bailey and Hughes. The key than must be the marriage between stuff and control that translates into success and therefore the better prospect. Isn't that the embodiment of Phillip Hughes? The remarkable maturity (pitching knowledge), super stuff, and superior control all combine to create one of the best pitching prospects we've ever seen. The part of that equation that Homer Bailey holds is super stuff and improving control. Taking into account the previous argument, you can only conclude that Phillip Hughes is indeed the better pitching prospect.

By a power of about eight million, this type of question (dealing with these two prospects) was the most popular I received, speaking to the fabulous intensity of Yankee fans. Still, its funny, because the difference between the two players is totally negligible. Both prospects are generational, both are top tier, and both project as aces in the Major Leagues (the only two in the minors). So, I don't really think the individual ranking is important, but I will do Bailey the hnor of defending him, since he was ultimately my choice.

As far as "stuff" goes, I disagree with the question, I don't think you can find other stuff like Bailey's or Hughes' in the minor leagues. Someone like Jason Neighborgall might have impressive raw stuff, but it doesn't compare to these two players, as he has no idea where it is going. Say what you will about Homer Bailey's command, but it hardly had an adverse effect on his performance in 2006. In the end, I decided to label the Reds prospect with the minors best stuff, and I again, I disagree with the e-mail about how he labels their fastballs. I would not say that Hughes has more life than Bailey, but instead more sink, as Bailey's exploding four-seamer has plenty of life. I love Hughes' two-seamer, however, so the fastball difference is about as negligible as their overall ranking.

But, again, why Bailey? What overcomes Hughes' edge in command? Two things: breaking ball and health. Now, let me remind, I'm not claiming Hughes is poor in either category at all. His curveball is fantastic, but my reports of Bailey's hook were phenomenal. The pitch might be a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale soon, and it should generate a lot of swings-and-misses at the Major League level. While Hughes is long removed from past shoulder soreness, he is still more susceptible for future injury than Bailey.

Now listen: I believe Philip Hughes will not only pitch in the Majors in 2007, but I believe he'll start admirably in the playoffs. I believe he will anchor the Yanks' rotation for years to come. And I also believe the same for Homer Bailey's, who has enough star power to reinvigorate the city of Cincinnati.

If Franklin Morales can improve his control w/o altering his delivery, or, at least, with minimal impact to his delivery, do you think he could be considered in the top 25-30 range? His "stuff" is pretty filthy when he's on target.

This will be the key for Morales. I place this question deliberately after the Bailey/Hughes one for a reason, in the previous ranking, I allude to a ideological belief I have in prospects that Morales reinforces: command can be taught, raw stuff cannot. Pitching coaches are very important aspects to baseball, and their effect on teaching young players command has been seen again and again. Very often, I have players with great stuff and iffy command ranked pretty high, because I do believe in the power of a pitching coach. Morales is a player whose raw stuff is among the ten best pitching prospects in the game, but he is going to have to make the most out of Spring Training, the AA pitching coach and the Rockies' roving pitching instructor. Still, Morales can probably be successful even with only minor improvements in control, as I documented in his player comment at SI.com that he will improve in 2007 merely be leaving the California League's hot sun.

To what extent do you take defense (both a player's individual ability based on scouting or available metrics, and the position they play on the defensive spectrum) into consideration when ranking position players?

As heavily as possible. After all, evaluating minor leaguers is all about tools, and defense encapsulates two of the six (five plus patience) tools that I use. So, reports about a player's range and his arm are of superb important to me. Also, as this question alludes, the defensive spectrum has a large impact on rankings, as you can see in some of the spots on my list.

One e-mail asked me about why I chose Tulowitzki as a better prospect than Longoria. After all, the latter probably has better power skills, and overall, is probably the better future hitter. But the difference between these two players on the list represents how much I weigh defense into rankings. Tulo had a head start because he plays shortstop, and he also plays it well. Longoria is a solid-average fielder, but Tulo has good range and a great arm. Up the middle.

I think the hardest position to consider defense effectively is the catching position. Offensive catchers are the dream of every Major League General Manager, but there are rarely very many in the game at once. They are extremely rare. The reason for this is because many offensive minor league catchers (I'm looking at you, Josh Phelps) don't make it in the Major Leagues because of defense. While Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Neil Walker both were helped by their position, and its relative ranking on the defensive spectrum, it is still very hard to know if they will play good enough defense to enter the Offensive Catcher fraternity.

Hopefully this answered the question.

How much do off-field and or personal issues(i.e. Elijah Dukes' recent/consistent transgressions) weigh in the rankings? Is there a red flag, so to speak, when it only is considered if applicable?

I don't think that I weigh make-up as high as other evaluators, or those within the game. Certainly it is an important part of becoming a star, but I think it is so hard to quantify, it is almost not worth doing. Delmon Young did not drop in my rankings because of the bat-throwing incident, or concerns about his anger. Instead, he dropped because he hasn't shown consistent patience in the minor leagues.

Elijah Dukes did drop because of his make-up, and because his anger continually effects his on-field play. But Dukes fantastic ability keeps him in the top 40. Ultimately, I could not drop him any more, because we simply do not know the effect a promotion to the Majors will have on him. Just as easily as his anger could destroy him (which sounds like a line from Star Wars ... Elijah Dukes as Anakin Skywalker?), he could also get a chip on his shoulder and become a superstar. Since we have no way of knowing this, guessing and ending up wrong seems foolish.

In the end, I won't remember 2006 as the season in which the Devil Rays cut Dukes season short because of his antics, I'll remember him taking Chuck James' fastball 500 feet out of the Durham ballpark, over the blue monster in left field. Talent speaks to me more than anger.

Mad lib: I agonized the most over the ranking of: the three 18-year-old star prospects. Fernando Martinez, Jose Tabata and Elvis Andrus are all extremely unique prospects, like Felix Hernandez was at one time. All of them have the talent to rise to the top of my list one day, but each is so likely to bust out at some point. These players, high on star power and attrition, are always the hardest to rank. With these three, I was changing their rankings constantly, trying to find something that worked for me. Ultimately, F-Mart's good showing in the AFL proved to me his power was real, and his good showing in that left him atop the group of three. Still, I really like Tabata, so I knew he couldn't be far behind. If he rises to my top 10 next season, don't consider me surprised. The hardest to rank of this group was Elvis Andrus, who struggled a bit offensively, as he isn't nearly as strong at these other two players. Still, Andrus could be a very good defensive shortstop and still learn to be an offensive force, a combination which should leave Braves fans drooling. These three players leave me very excited for 2007, when the projection will slowly be turning into realization for each prospect.

The Astros have a catcher that is getting high marks in their minor league system named JR Towles. He always has a high average and plays almost daily in the 3 years in the minor leagues. What have you heard about this young man? The Astros need a catcher after Ausmus leaves...could he possibly be the next in line?

I am familiar with Towles, he had a good season in Lexington, where I was able to see him play during the summer. In person, Towles has one glaring need: time in the weight room. Very skinny, Towles power and health would be much improved with some added strength. He showed some good, yet crude, defense behind the plate: memorably, he threw one ball to the right field wall after attempting to throw behind a baserunner at first base. It was a good, aggressive move that displayed plus arm strength, but it also reinforced complaints about his raw ability. Towles largest positive is good plate coverage, he's a natural hitter with a propensity for contact. This bodes well for his future, as his weaknesses are more easily rectified than problems with his bat. Towles didn't get much consideration for this list, but the Astros are high on him, despite drafting Max Sapp in the first round. As far as replacing Ausmus goes, he very well could, but I don't see Towles becoming Major League ready until at least 2009.

Adam Jones was 19 on your mid-season list...the drop from 19 to 25 isn't all that significant I realize, but did he do anything to drop his stock in the last months of the season? He appeared to take a big jump forward from June-on in Triple-A, but struggled in the majors. If he continues what he did from June-on in the minor leagues, do you see him as a potential top-10 guy next year (assuming no callup)?

Jones drop is not significant at all. He was passed by the best 2006 draftees, as well as the year's best breakout players. I still think very highly of Jones, and my position on his future is unchanged since midseason. However, his Major League trial should create a little cause for concern about his ability to hit a breaking ball. With a decent amount of ML at-bats, the next time Jones reaches the Majors, every team will have a scouting report on him. The Mariners, an organization that shows little patience with prospects, will need to make sure that Jones has mastered the pitching he sees in the PCL before promoting him again. Also, while I remain high on Jones' defense, I was a bit disheartened to read Dave Cameron's lackluster reviews of it at USS Mariner. In compiling the Best Tools of AAA for Baseball America, managers raved to me about Jones defense, so I do think he will be above-average in the Major Leagues. Jones could probably get to 10-15 before his call-up next year, but that's probably where his "rank ceiling" is.

Probably too far in the future, but how about Angel Villalona?

Certainly what I have read about Villalona thus far is intriguing, and it sounds like he should finally give the Giants a star position player prospect. It has been a long time. The reason I didn't rank him yet is two reasons: he has not played in a game yet, and I just don't know enough about him. Baseball America does such a wonderful job bringing these players to the public, but ranking Villalona solely on what I read in BA would be dishonest. For now, I'm willing to wait to see his power in a minor league, and then try and talk to someone who say him before I give him a good ranking. Still, he's probably somewhere 101-125, which for a 16-year-old is pretty remarkable. Kudos to BA for reporting this information so well, and look out for some teenage power in the Arizona Summer League (presumably) next summer.

Last year you had Jon Lester ranked #14. He will probably start the year in the minors for the Red Sox while he rebuilds his strength after recuperating from kicking cancer's butt. If he still qualified for your list, what would he rank this year?

Impossible to say. I am so excited Lester is going to be on the mound in 2007 -- he's a hero -- it speaks to his character as a prospect. We have no idea how much weight or strength loss Lester sustained during cancer, but he's a workhorse, and I don't doubt it will all come back. This is such an uplifting story that it trumps prospect rankings. Lester is a player that everyone, including Yankees fans, should be rooting for. A goal of mine for 2007 is to see him pitch somewhere, and I know that I will wear a Lester jersey into Fenway Park before his career is done.

You have T.Snider ranked 1 spot ahead of A.Lind. What pushed Snider ahead in your eyes?

They are neck and neck. Lind is a favorite prospect of mine, a breakout player I targeted last year whose pure bat proved to have some big power in it. I also am a big Snider fan, the make-up you have heard about in the past came across so well through an interview. These guys are both really good prospects, but I do think Snider could just be more of an offensive force in the Major Leagues. I likened Lind's offensive profile to Carlos Lee, but I think Snider can be above that, even if his size does worry me a bit. Another factor, which we shouldn't overlook, is that Snider will probably reach the Major Leagues at the age of 21 or 22, long before the age Lind will be during his 2007 rookie season.

Keep your minor league questions coming in the comments section of this post, and I will try to answer as many as I can in the next few days. Thanks!

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There is no greater season for a prospect evaluator than the winter, as we finally bear down, combine all the evidence and take our stances. For the fourth winter in a row, I have compiled a list of the minor league's 75 best talents -- Major League Baseball's future stars. This winter, I was lucky enough to have SportsIllustrated.com invite me to post my list at their site. This was a fantastic opportunity at heightened exposure as well as the ability to have my wordiness edited by Jake Luft. Over the last week I have written six installments, the last of which is also produced below. The other five pieces at SI:

Honorable Mentions
Prospects 75-61
Prospects 60-46
Prospects 45-31
Prospects 30-16

With the allowance of Luft and SI.com, I have opted to simultaneously post the final edition of my list at Baseball Analysts. I have much nostalgia built into this site and its readers, so I wanted to post my prospect list in this forum again.

Finally, Rich has allowed me to come back to Analysts this Friday as well, as I wanted to compile a mailbag of the questions I receive during the presentation of this list. So, if you have any burning prospect-related questions, leave them in the comments below or e-mail me and I will pick as many as I can to answer Friday. Thanks, as always, for reading.

Bryan Smith's Top 75 Prospects in 2007
For the purposes of this list, a prospect is a player who played predominantly in the minor leagues last season or was drafted in the 2006 June draft. A player loses eligibility for this list once he surpasses 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats in the major leagues. Japanese imports Daisuke Matsuzaka, Akinori Iwamura and Kei Igawa were not considered due to lengthy experience overseas. Players are judged based on what scouting and statistical reports claim on their potential. Each prospect is presented below with his 2007 baseball age and 2006 statistics.

15. Jay Bruce, 20, RF, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (Class A-): .291/.355/.516, 19 SB in 444 AB

Bruce had a historic season for a teen-ager in the Midwest League, showing left-handed power unrivaled for a player of his maturity. Like so many young left-handed hitters, Bruce has work to do with southpaws, striking out in 30 percent of his at-bats against them in 2006. This is not what scares me. What does is the context within Bruce's numbers and the similarities they bear to Brian Dopirak's legendary Midwest League season in 2004. That year Dopirak became wildly hyped in prospect circles, but I made note of a 27-game stretch during the summer in which he was a decidedly better player than the rest of the season, which is the same thing that happened to Bruce in 2006. In 33 games between June 4 and July 10, Bruce was amazing, hitting .427 and clubbing 24 extra-base hits. The rest of the season? A paltry .238 batting average. However, his power did remain consistent throughout the season, so I am now cautiously confident in Bruce's future.

14. Andrew McCutchen, 20, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
2006 Stats (A-/AA): .294/.359/.450, 23 SB in 531 AB

Speed is the name of McCutchen's game, as his quickness with his legs and bat leave the Pirates thinking big with their future center fielder. Generously listed at 170 pounds, McCutchen relies on ridiculous bat speed to hit for plus power. His power was restrained much of the season by the spacious dimensions at his home park; he slugged .536 on the road in Low-A. With quickness unrivaled for players with his power, McCutchen also profiles to steal 30 bases and win Gold Gloves down the road. Raw in both areas, McCutchen could stand at least another season and a half in the minor leagues, but his late-season success at AA might have pushed his timetable forward significantly.

13. Tim Lincecum, 23, RHP, San Francisco Giants
2006 Stats (SS/A+): 1.71 ERA, 14H/31.2IP, 58K/12BB

In modern college baseball history, no pitcher has been as dominant in a single season as Jered Weaver was in 2004. In his final year at Long Beach State, Weaver posted a 1.63 ERA and struck out 213 batters while scouts nitpicked his game. In 2006, Weaver received his vindication for his overshadowed Golden Spikes season, dominating the Majors as a rookie. There are numerous similarities between Weaver and Lincecum, who had a 1.99 ERA and 199 strikeouts as a junior at Washington. Lincecum has better stuff than Weaver, touching the high-90s with his fastball while featuring a hammer curveball, but his height (he's about 6-feet tall) led to a drop to the 10th overall selection in the 2006 draft. Lincecum's largest pitfall could be the combination of his violent delivery and extreme workload. The Giants will work hard at managing both in 2007, preparing Lincecum to contribute in the majors by 2008.

12. Andrew Miller, 22, LHP, Detroit Tigers
2006 Stats (A+): 0.00 ERA, 2H/5IP, 9K/1BB

The first player from the 2006 draft to reach the majors, Miller was also the best the draft had to offer. Since opting for North Carolina instead of the Devil Rays out of high school, Miller had long been marked as the player-to-top in his class. Miller won Baseball America's College Player of the Year award with a marvelous junior season. Extremely projectable at a lanky 6-foot-6, Miller's four-seam fastball is already 94-97 mph. As a starter, his bread and butter is a sinking two-seam fastball and a slider that few left-handed hitters can touch. A September call-up showed the Tigers how dominant Miller profiles to be, but also how raw his delivery and command still are; he struck out six batters and walked 10 in 10 1/3 innings with Detroit. Miller will likely begin in Double-A Erie next season and could be pushing for a major-league roster spot again late in the season.

11. Troy Tulowitzki, 22, SS, Colorado Rockies
2006 Stats (AA): .291/.370/.473, 6 SB in 423 AB

Incumbent Clint Barmes struggled in 2006, which means there is nothing holding Tulowitzki back from playing every day in Coors Field. Tulowitzki is a gifted contact hitter who sprays the ball all over the field with gap power. It isn't a stretch to project him as a perennial .300 hitter who bangs out 40 doubles annually. He also has a power stroke that should produce 10 to 20 home runs a season. In the field, he is mistake-prone but shows good range and a cannon arm from the hole. Despite struggling with Colorado in September, Tulowitzki proved in the Arizona Fall League that he's ready for The Show.

10. Adam Miller, 22, RHP, Cleveland Indians
2006 Stats (AA): 2.84 ERA, 133H/158.1IP, 161K/46BB

Miller has gone under a distinct maturation in the minors, the type separating "pitchers" like Jake Peavy from "throwers" like Kerry Wood. Formerly known as "Mr. 101" stemming from a late-season velocity reading before an arm injury in 2004, Miller has since backpedaled his approach and trusted his stuff. These days, Miller focuses on keeping his darting two-seamer down in the zone (resulting in a 1.59 G/F ratio in AA) and striking out hitters with his plus-plus slider. Miller's maturation is still a work in progress. That was evident in 2006 as he allowed seven home runs in his first 10 starts. However, the right-hander limited opponents to a mere two home runs the rest of the season thanks largely to an improved command of his slider.

9. Billy Butler, 21, LF, Kansas City Royals
2006 Stats (AA): .331/.388/.499, 1 SB in 477 AB

Butler played in an unfriendly hitting environment (Wichita) in 2006. At home during the season, Butler hit just one home run compared to 14 while on the road. The latter number more accurately details Butler's huge power potential. Butler's combination of contact and power skills are fantastic, and his late-season performance indicates he could be even better next year. Between June 1 and his exit to play for Team USA, Butler batted .354 while striking out just 33 times. Butler creates an adventure with every fly ball in left field, but his defensive shortcomings will be forgotten if he can provide protection for Alex Gordon in the Royals' lineup.

8. Cameron Maybin, 20, CF, Detroit Tigers
2006 Stats (A-): .304/.387/.457, 27 SB in 385 AB

Maybin lived up to all the hype in his first pro season. He might not be the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr., but Maybin has a generational five-tool set. Many have pointed to Maybin's .408 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and called his season overrated, but I don't believe this is true. Maybin has the same kind combination of speed and line-drive ability that allows Ichiro to post high BABIPs every season, albeit not quite as high as .408. While his numbers could come down a bit with worse luck in 2007, it also could be pointed out his numbers took a hit by an early return from a thumb injury. Maybin struggled horribly in his first 15 games coming off the DL, hitting just 12-for-56 without much power. With a healthy season, I think Maybin could improve on his 2006 numbers in the Florida State League; the speedy center fielder has greater power than he showed in the tough Midwest League.

7. Justin Upton, 19, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 Stats (A-): .263/.343/.413, 15 SB in 438 AB

Like his brother, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton is an extremely divisive prospect as people struggle to understand why his output has not matched his talent. The latter was obvious for four years of high school, and nationally on display in spring training when Upton looked fantastic against the Chicago White Sox on WGN. Upton has a mature body with extremely long legs, which combined with his speed give him fantastic home-to-first times. Upton draws deserved comparisons to Alfonso Soriano, who has a similarly long, controlled and powerful swing. Most people have questioned Upton's makeup due to his poor season, but the concerns are overdone; expectations were just too high for the 2005 draft's top pick. Upton might not be as major-league ready as we thought last March, but his All-Star ceiling should not be altered because of an average debut.

6. Chris Young, 23, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 Stats (AAA): .276/.363/.532, 17 SB in 402 AB

While the exit of fan favorite Luis Gonzalez provides a public relations hit to Arizona in 2007, the entrance of Young should quickly make D-Backs fans forget their former hero. This will be most evident defensively, as Arizona adds Young's fabulous range in center, pushing Eric Byrnes to left field and surely saving the pitching staff many runs. Offensively, Young should be at least on par with Gonzalez next season, if not better. Young has the chance to be a 25 homer/25 steals threat as a rookie and is the odds-on favorite to capture National League Rookie of the Year honors. Young began making better contact last season as well, but his batting average didn't go up, the product of bad luck against southpaws. His BABIP was .100 points worse against left-handers, and when that number improves, Young could threaten to break the .300 barrier for his first time as a pro.

5. Brandon Wood, 22, SS, Los Angeles Angels
2006 Stats (AA): .276/.355/.552, 19 SB in 453 AB

After a breakout season of epic proportions in the hitter-friendly California League in 2005, Wood entered last year with a considerable amount of pressure. Was it a fluke? Can his offensive approach continue to produce big results? Will his power sustain at higher levels? What Wood proved in 2006 was that he was indeed a top prospect, showing substantial power throughout the season. Wood is going to suffer through a lot of variance in his numbers because of his high strikeout rate, but his ability to hit the ball out of any park offsets concerns about his swing-and-miss tendencies. By walking more often last season, Wood became a more valuable prospect, making a potential move to the hot corner far less daunting. Expect Wood to push the Angels to a decision on whether to call him up in 2007 as Salt Lake's altitude should lend to Wood's 100th minor-league home run by midseason.

4. Philip Hughes, 21, RHP, New York Yankees
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.16 ERA, 92H/146IP, 168K/34BB

If Roger Clemens does not return to the Bronx in 2007, Hughes will be the hot-button issue in New York come June. By then, Hughes will be dominating AAA with every outing. The Yankees have done a fabulous job preparing Hughes for his midseason call-up, slowly increasing his workload in the minor leagues. With 146 innings last year, Hughes should be able to pitch consistently through October, by which time he might already be the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Far more impressive than Hughes' heavy sinker or jaw-dropping curveball is his understanding of pitching; he is the most intelligent phenom in recent memory. Hughes does not give in to any bat, rarely allows free trips to first base, and gets groundballs consistently from the stretch. Hughes is as good as a New York pitching prospect has been in a long time.

3. Homer Bailey, 21, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.47 ERA, 99H/138.2IP, 156K/50BB

A year ago, things did not add up with Homer Bailey. The prep star's full season debut began in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, where he allowed a 7.73 H/9, struck out 125 batters and allowed just five home runs in just over 100 innings. However, his ERA was 4.43. The reason? Sixty-two walks, indicating poor command that Bailey had not shown as a high schooler. The anomalies I saw straightened themselves out in 2006, when Bailey became the game's best pitching prospect. The electricity of Bailey's stuff -- the life of his fastball and break on his curve -- are fantastic, and Bailey already attacks hitters like a veteran. In 2005, Bailey walked fewer than two batters just six times. In 2006, he raised the number to nine starts. If he can make a 50 percent improvement on that number again next season, Bailey will finish the year in Cincinnati.

2. Delmon Young, 21, RF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2006 Stats (AAA): .316/.341/.474, 22 SB in 342 AB

I wanted Young to be my top prospect this season. He held that role a year ago and I have long predicted his future superstardom. My views on Young's future are unchanged heading into this season, but Young was downgraded to the No. 2 spot on this list because of one negative trait: patience. Young does not have great makeup (see: bat toss at umpire), but he would hardly be the first superstar to combine success with anger. What I can't overlook is Young's allergy to drawing walks, as he has just 20 since a mid-July promotion to AAA in 2005. Young must walk more in the majors to reach his full potential, but his power, hand-eye coordination, speed and throwing arm will make him an All-Star regardless.

1. Alex Gordon, 23, 3b, Kansas City Royals
2006 Stats (AA): .325/.427/.588, 22 SB in 486 AB

Gordon is the ultimate hitting prospect. A left-handed hitter with a gorgeous swing, the 2005 Golden Spikes award winner made the transition to wooden bats look easy. He thrived in the Texas League, becoming a potential savior in the eyes of Royals fans. Unlike Butler, Wichita's pitcher-friendly tendencies did not faze Gordon, who hit 19 home runs in the seasons' final 60 games. This did correspond with a rise in strikeouts (63 over that span), but the Royals do not question Gordon's ability to hit for average. Also an intelligent player, Gordon understands the value of a walk and also is fantastic at picking out the right times to steal a base. The Royals expect him to hit and hit quickly as a rookie in 2007.

The rest of my top 75 prospect list is in order after the jump, and remember to leave your questions for the mailbag on Friday.

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Dear loyal readers,

Today, I'm sad to say, will be my last post as co-writer at Baseball Analysts.

18 months ago - hard to believe, isn't it? - Rich and I moved from All-Baseball.com to this venue, in hopes of creating an eclectic site to provide daily, lengthy baseball analysis. It's been a fantastic year and a half, and our creation has had more success than either of us could have hoped for.

Personally, today represents another left turn in my own winding Internet road, a journey spanning four years and multiple URLs. I deeply appreciate each reader who has stuck with me through it all, as you are the reasons I have had opportunities for publications I deeply admire and respect. Without you, I never would have had bylines at Baseball Prospectus, SI.com or Baseball America.

Once upon a time, I had the energy to write five long posts a week, the time to throw myself into minor league baseball research constantly. When such a schedule became too daunting, I was lucky enough to find Rich, whose partnership allowed me to decrease my workload to three times a week. Unfortunately, for personal reasons, I am no longer able to commit to such a schedule, and in fairness to Rich, I could not ask to remain on this site's masthead.

So instead, Rich and I have decided it's best for me to turn my key in, and going forward, he will have full control of this site. I'll be making guest appearances, now and again, and will also be freelancing some work all around the Internet. After years of attempting to live by strict writing schedules, I have reached a point in which I must step back.

I have not lost the itch to write or the itch to follow baseball, this I can assure you. I will remain knee-deep in minor league analysis, and will try to write as often as possible. I'll still be making a prospect list, and this January, I'll again attempt to find prospects that will break out next season. I have some plans for writing before then, and I don't doubt you'll be seeing my byline plenty going forward.

As the cliche goes, it's not goodbye, it's see you later. For those looking to get in contact with me going forward, please do not hesitate to e-mail me at bsmithwtny AT yahoo.com. I want to finish today thanking Rich Lederer, who has been a fantastic partner during our run and will undoubtedly continue to be a wonderful friend going forward.

Take care, Bryan Smith.

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Major League Baseball should be amped up for a huge September, a month promising as much drama as any year in recent memory. The American League seems as deep as ever, with some heated battles for the AL Wild Card, and a less exciting race in the AL West. In the National League, all teams are all fighting for spots behind the Mets.

In some ways, more intriguing than the races this September will be to see which rookie jumps forward with a big season's end. Perhaps the deepest rookie crop in history, there has been evidence of a Major League youth movement all over the Majors - from Miami to Los Angeles.

With the year counting down, and September about to crown a champion, I wanted to give a primer of each league's Rookie of the Year race before anyone separates himself. We start today with the National League, and my countdown of the best NL rookies of 2006 ...

10. Cole Hamels

Where He Was Last Year: My #49 prospect entering the season, Hamels' injury-riddled 2005 saw questions begin to crop up about his health problems. Hamels hadn't stayed off the DL for a long period of time since high school, and even his own frustrations were beginning to show - an early season bar-fight accident angered the organization. Still, when on the mound, Hamels showed potential of what he had in his first minor league season. The makings of a big ceiling were there, but so was a lot of risk.

How He Is This Year: Hamels began the season on time, and flew through the minor leagues when no stop posed a problem. Glorified on the internet, Hamels was not an instant success, but has performed admirably (4.50 ERA) in his rookie season. I love his peripheral numbers - which include 74 hits and 96 strikeouts in 84 innings - and Hamels has the ability to dominate that few players do at his age. He won't be winning any trophies this season, but Hamels is a good long-term bet to become an ace.

9. Takashi Saito

Where He Was Last Year: Not on American soil. Saito, 36, came over from Japan in the winter, when the top 1992 draft pick enjoyed a lackluster career. Saito had a big season in 2001, when he posted a 1.67 ERA, but the hinges appeared to come off after a bad 2004. Saito's signing took quite a bit of foresight from a scouting department emerging as baseball's best.

Where He Is This Year: With Gagne hurt, Saito has been fantastic in the late-inning role. An unsung hero from the most recent Sunday night win, Saito looked fantastic in his one inning of relief. As would be no surprise for a Japanese pitcher, Saito is best when throwing his breaking ball for strikes in fastball counts. Saito has had a good year, but remember, voters have an anti-aging bias when it comes to "rookies."

8. Scott Olsen

Where He Was Last Year: Things may have looked bad a year ago, when Olsen posted his highest ERA ever - a 3.92 showing in AA, but such was not the case. As I pointed out when ranking Olsen as the game's #20 prospect, the southpaw's rise in ERA came with large improvements in both the walk and strikeout categories. A bit 2006 was in the cards.

Where He Is This Year: Olsen hasn't been fantastic with the Marlins this season, but he's been consistently very good. The problem with Olsen, and many members of the Florida staff, will be finding a way to harness his great stuff and cut down on the walk total. While Olsen's home run mark is down again this season, he'll never turn the big corner until he learns to hit the ball where he wants.

7. Russ Martin

Where He Was Last Year: Not far removed from a conversion to behind the plate, Martin took to the position last year, following up on an awe-inspiring Spring Training. Martin ranked as my #37 prospect, and I said he had the "best plate discipline in the minor leagues." We knew then what we have now - Martin has all the makings of a very solid, very consistent Major League catcher.

Where He Is This Year: The Dodgers were cautious with much of their youth in the early season, allowing each player to start hitting the ball consistent in the Pacific Coast League. Martin was one of the first call-ups, and his presence made the team forget about Dioner Navarro's 2005 cup of coffee. With a walk-off home run on the national stage Sunday, Martin appears to be entering the upmost echelon of baseball catchers, a tier where only a few players alive currently reside.

6. Matt Cain

Where He Was Last Year: Something must have been wrong with Cain last season, who showed up in camp out of shape, and spent the season in AAA. Armed with newfound control problems, Cain was posting dangerously high walk and flyball numbers. Still, his stuff was great and his strikeout rate was high, and Cain was among my top pitching prospects, ranked as the minors' #8 prospect.

Where He Is This Year: Teams take baby steps with young bodies, and the reins are still on Cain this season. Manager Alou's grip doesn't promise to lighten until Cain can add a bit of consistency to his game. While he's flashed double-digit strikeout, no-hitter type stuff, the problem remains his HR-happy fastball, with which he must further harness control.

5. Ryan Zimmerman

where He Was Last Year: In lecture halls 16 months ago, if you can believe it. While Zimmerman's bat was considered no sure thing entering the draft, it caught on quickly, and Zimmerman began to fly through the minors. Zimmerman's defense was advertised very highly, and his package of successful indicators led me to a #12 ranking of the National on my rookie list.

Where He Is This Year: The problem with Zimmerman's bat was always in the power department - he could make contact just fine. This season his downfall, when compared to the other rookies, will be his inability to smash enough home runs to keep with the slugging percentages of the worlds Prince Fielders and Dan Ugglas. Zimmerman is a remarkable story, and you have to wonder where he would go if the 2005 draft was done all over again.

4. Dan Uggla

where He Was Last Year: ... Crickets ... The answer to this question is one that nobody knows - he wasn't that important. But exposed to the Rule 5 draft, Uggla found a perfect suitor in the Marlins, desperately looking for a Luis Castillo replacement. Uggla has been that and more in the Miami middle infield, flashing power that even his biggest supporters weren't aware of.

Where He Is This Year: While he's fallen off some since a ridiculous start to the season, Uggla still has the best numbers of any rookie middle infielder this season. Hanley Ramirez might have generated most of the early-season press -- OK, ok, well ... all of it -- but Ramirez' recent drop-off has opened the doors for Uggla to show his true colors. I would sell his stock high if I lived in Miami, but that could be a tall order depending on the market.

3. Prince Fielder

where He Was Last Year: Hitting, of course, but in the minor leagues. Since his MVP season in the Midwest League, Fielder was a threat in any league he attended. At each stop, including the PCL last season, Fielder showed power that was drawing 40-HR annually predictions. His play at first base was never lauded, but Fielder always seemed to get the better end on predictions than his father did. I was always a believer, and made him my #4 prospect.

Where He Is This Year: Fielder has been fantastic this season, putting himself in sight of 30 HR by season's end. The Brewers were simply able to trade Carlos Lee at the deadline because of Fielder's resurgence. The Brewers infield defense hasn't been good this season, but as Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall continue to make improvements, so will Fielder. Not only is he the best front-to-back rookie in the NL, he's even more of a future star than we thought.

2. Andre Ethier

where He Was Last Year: Even since Ethier starred at Arizona State, he was the profile of a 4th outfielder. Capable of playing all three outfield positions, but none of them particularly well. Capable of hitting enough for a full-time spot, but not enough power for a spot in a corner. However, last year everything seemed to click, and Ethier exctied Logan White. The Milton Bradley-for-Ethier trade looked pretty bad 1-2 months in, but now the Dodgers have managed to flip the script.

Where He Is This Year: Fantastic. Not yet eligible for the National League batting race, Ethier would now be in first place, a legitimate number. The Dodgers didn't seem to like Ethier as much as some of their homegrown options early in the season, but Ethier's wide-ranging skillset grew on the Dodgers. Now, after they found another way to acquire Maddux, the Dodgers seem committed to not move Ethier.

1. Josh Johnson

where He Was Last Year: Not ranked in my prospect list, and to be honest, Johnson wasn't particularly close. He had a good 2005 season, and some wondered if he had turned a corner, but I wasn't willing to jump on the bandwagon. Johnson's hit ratio was just too high to support a K/9 that never touched 9, and a walk ratio that was at 3.78 per nine in 2004. I didn't like Johnson.

Where He Is This Year: I was wrong. Strikeouts aren't always the answer, as apparently, Johnson's minor league 7.30 mark was enough for the Major Leagues. If the season ended today, Johnson would lead the NL in ERA, making him a shoo-in for the National League Rookie of the Year. With that in mind, it's his award to lose, and if I was a gambling man, I'd say his most likely competitors are: Prince Fielder, Dan Uggla, Russ Martin. But before one of the hitters emerge from the scramble, Johnson will have to start pitching badly, an occurrence yet to happen in 25 games this season.

And, of course, as I always urge: please use the comments to give me your own National League rookie list.

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Hard to believe, but the minor league baseball season is narrowing down. The season has been full of every weird twist and turn that we have each year on the farm.

For the next five Fridays, we'll attempt to look back on this season and find context for it all. We start with the season's largest surprises, beginning with the clubs in the American League...

Kansas City - Quite simply, demotions are bad news for any rebuilding process. This season, my surprise story has been a pair of Major Leaguers spending time in the minor leagues: Mark Teahen and Zack Greinke. Teahen, the prize acquisition in the Carlos Beltran trade, was sent down to Omaha in early May sporting a .195/.241/.351 line. After torching the Pacific Coast League in just 79 at-bats, Teahen has been one of the AL's best hitters in June. Greinke's story is far more strange and doesn't offer a happy ending. After leaving during Spring Training citing personal problems, the pride of Kansas City has spent much of the season in Wichita, pitching inconsistently in a league where he was once the best prospect.

Tampa Bay - The easiest pick of the group, and the strangest story of the season: the Durham Bulls. Take your prized D-Rays prospect, and take your pick. Delmon Young? Forget the lack of power, Delmon missed 50 games for his infamous thrown bat. B.J. Upton? The good boy of the Durham clan had a DUI after the Bulls were shut out in a doubleheader against Buffalo. Elijah Dukes? Ejected and suspended multiple times, Dukes is now at home in Florida, contemplating giving up baseball. This, of course, came months after Dukes showed signs of being the best of the group. You can bet make-up has suddenly become an important aspect of the D-Rays scouting staff's requirements.

Cleveland - Simply put, no system has had a jump in 2006 like the Indians, thanks to three equally surprising breakouts. While Andy Marte was brought in during the off season to be the future at the hot corner, Kevin Kouzmanoff has made things interesting. After nearly hitting .400 in the Eastern League, Kouzmanoff has continued to flourish since replacing Marte in the Buffalo lineup. Next spring's position battle promises to be one of the year's best. Brian Barton is the ultimate draft day faux pas story, and looking more and more like a legit prospect with each swing in AA. Finally, Chuck Lofgren went from the athletic southpaw with an intriguing upside to a polished pitching prospect worth the Indians delicate touch.

Baltimore - Since Jeffrey Maier, it appears bad news is a staple of this organization. While things appear dismal on the Major League front, the farm system does appear to be making baby steps towards mediocrity. While both Radhames Liz and Brandon Erbe would make good choices for this column, it always seems that with a little good news comes bad news for the Orioles. Brandon Snyder looked great in his pro debut last summer, immediately validating his selection in the first round. The wheels came off quickly this year, and Snyder has yet to make a pit stop. In Low-A, injuries and ineffectiveness led to Snyder playing just 38 games before a demotion, where his season line reads .194/.237/.340. While the New York-Penn League should have offered a vast improvement, Snyder's struggles have not subsided, and the catcher sports a poor .606 OPS.

Seattle - Chris Snelling spends much of the season on the DL? Old news. Aggressive promoting all through the system? A Bavasi staple. And while most of his pushed players have struggled at the higher levels, the Mariners are looking like geniuses for putting Mark Lowe in the bullpen. Once a middle-of-the-road starting prospect, Lowe has been the Mariners own K-Rod/Gagne story of the season, not allowing a run in his first 11 games. Seattle won't be able to tell the Lowe story in the playoffs, but his unsung season is a remarkable story.

Texas - It wasn't long ago that the DVD trio was supposed to be the Rangers saving grace, the pitching that had been lacking in Arlington for a decade. Suddenly, things don't appear so easy. Thomas Diamond, once poised and filthy off the bump, has 68 walks in 107.2 innings at AA. John Danks has continued to be inconsistent as can be, allowing a few too many hits and runs to be an elite pitcher. Surprisingly, Edinson Volquez has been the best of the bunch, but he too comes with control problems: 72 in 120.2 innings. Considered three future anchors six months ago, it would no longer be too shocking if DVD represented half of the Rangers future bullpen.

Los Angeles - Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, even Nick Adenhart, they aren't surprises. These names are tributes to the Angels scouting department, yes, but their 2006 successes come as a small surprise. The one player to turn the most heads, however, has been Jose Arredondo, just 2 years removed from donning a helmet and wood bat. Probably the Cal League's best pitcher before his promotion, Arredondo dominated in one of the minors most difficult environments for pitchers. Arrendondo has struggled in AA, and is raw enough to still have the PROJECT label across his forehead, but for the first time in awhile, the right-hander is beginning to look more like a pitcher than a thrower.

Toronto - While the Blue Jays lack of development in the pitching category is a story of itself, Toronto's big surprise is Adam Lind, who has added something to a faceless system. While Toronto's risk-averse drafting has yielded little dividends in recent years (read: Russ Adams, Aaron Hill), Lind provides validation for the pure college hitter. After flashing polish and gap power in the Florida State League a year ago, Lind added strength in the winter, and now many of his long balls are clearing the fence. Lind is now the clear-cut top prospect in the organization, but no one else has advanced like he has in 2006.

Oakland - Another organization often deemed risk-averse, the A's big story could be the poor full season debuts of their prep pitching trio. But the happier story, the more surprising story, has been Jason Windsor's catapult through the system. The former over-worked Titan CWS MVP has been gangbusters this season, offering enough control and a good enough fastball to get out players consistently in both AA and AAA. While his Major League debut wasn't so hot, Windsor's 11-0 record at AAA speaks for itself. We're a long way from Billy Beane complaining about his collegiate usage habits at this point.

Boston - Opposite from Oakland, the Red Sox season's success story stems from their young pitching draftees. Normally a college-heavy organization, the Red Sox went out on a ledge drafting Clay Buchholz (JC boy) and Michael Bowden (HS right-hander) last season. However, neither player has missed a beat in the South Atlantic League this season, making up for the system's loss of the Jons, Papelbon and Lester. I maintain my preference for Bowden as the better prospect, but with near identical peripherals, it's hard to tell at this point. If not these two, recent draftee Bryce Cox makes for quite the story, as closing in Wilmington is a long way from the back end of Rice's bullpen.

Minnesota - Doubt Mike Radcliffe, and this is what you get. While Matt Garza was not a sexy first round choice 14 months ago, the Fresno State ace would be a top ten pick if the draft were re-held today. With Francisco Liriano out indefinitely, Garza is in the Major Leagues, a long way from his original Fort Myers assignment. However, Garza proved able in each stop between Florida and Minnesota, even dominating in five AAA starts before his call-up. Garza is one of a huge group of pitching success stories for the Twins: Pat Neshek the other feel-good story of the season. Now we're all but waiting for Eduardo Morlan to become elite, seemingly the next Twin in the pecking order.

Chicago - A no-doubter: Josh Fields. What looked like a stretch on draft day looked even worse last season, as Fields couldn't help drawing comparisons to Drew Henson with his long, contact-averse swing. However things clicked for Fields in the winter, and he's been one of the best hitters in the International League in 2006. Problem for Fields is that Joe Crede has been just as good in the Majors, making his .315/.389/.526 line look only moderately appealing. Most shocking, Fields has still not really sunk his teeth into a new position, as Scott Podsednik's seemingly-forthcoming exit would usually open a hole for a hitter of Fields' caliber.

New York - Plain and simple, a 17-year-old in full season baseball is a unique sighting. One of three in the Sally League this season, Jose Tabata has looked like the best and most consistent in 2006. The Yankees newest elite prospect wasn't fantastic, but his near-.800 OPS has convinced many people that he's the future in the Yankee Stadium outfield. Still a long way from the Majors, things get ugly when one thinks about what the NYC hype machine could do to a great story like Tabata. So, for the hope of avoiding that, I nominate J.B. Cox as the season's success story.

Detroit - Flame-throwing is now synonymous witht he Tigers, as Joel Zumaya and Justin Verlander are a pair of the best stories from the Major League season. If we look to find a continuation of this in the minors, it's easy, as the arrival of both Humberto Sanchez and Andrew Miller have made minor league headlines this season. Sanchez' arrival is one of refinement, going from a projected reliever to a key September arm for Detroit in their Cinderella season. Miller will also be making a cup of coffee, as his Major League contract stipulates so. After landing Cameron Maybin in 2005, the Tigers landed a bigger heist on draft day 2006, finding consensus top prospect Andrew Miller in the six-hole.

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October is the month of baseball memories, June the month of swoons, when the long season begins to take notice. July is the month of trading, March the month of spring. And January, in baseball, is the month of predictions.

I haven't been able to write a mid-season review of my sleepers this season (perhaps my first prediction), so today we'll break down each player seven months removed from their praises. I definitely haven't achieved the success rate I had last year (which was probably an anomaly), but inevitably, a few have indeed proven to be worth a higher value than they were a year ago. The players:

Once upon a time, I kept score at every baseball game I went to, without fail. Need a memory? Look back into old scorecards of Albert Pujols as a Peoria Chief, or a Norberto Martin walk-off home run in Comiskey Park.

Slowly, my habit started to die, and I stopped keeping score. Needing something to stay into the game, I've made sure to have a notebook nearby in every stadium I've been to in 2006. Glancing over the pages, I have a lot of thoughts that didn't turn into articles this summer, a lot of lists that are in danger of going unread. Today we'll remedy that problem, as I begin to empty out my 2006 notebook...

After watching Team USA multiple times this summer, I posted a synopsis of my thoughts on SI.com Friday. The article breaks down the top 11 players on the team, but with my notes, I realized I should probably touch on the team's other players. Some quick thoughts on each:

"Baseball is timeless," the back of a shirt I once owned read.

People would ask me why I was so into baseball, a game too slow to keep their interest. My responses, well-prepared, circled around the type of cheesy cliched lines that adorned popular t-shirts like mine. I jumped on response bandwagons.

In truth, looking back at those times, I knew I loved baseball, but I could never properly explain why. Putting your reasons in words was always difficult. This summer, my baseball experiences have been as prolific and eclectic as ever, and it's all starting to make sense to me. I'm starting to develop my own real answer.

Baseball isn't timeless. It isn't like math, a universal language the same in South Africa as it is in Australia, the same in downtown New York City as it is in rural Iowa. Baseball in these locales revolves around the same game, but I love it because it isn't.

Last fall, I was lucky enough to find a ticket to the first game of the World Series. A lifelong Cubs fan, I didn't go thinking the outcome would matter to me. But in U.S. Cellular, the atmosphere captured me in seconds. I remember getting goose bumps during the national anthem, looking around and realizing that I was in the midst of the luckiest moment of my life.

World Series baseball isn't the baseball they play in early August. More importantly, it isn't the same feeling from the stands. When Bobby Jenks entered Game 1, and particularly when he struck out Jeff Bagwell, I was hooked. I was as excited in that moment as I'd been when Mark Prior shut out the Braves in the playoffs a couple years earlier.

After a long winter break from baseball, I returned to the game in the spring, making an annual sojourn with my father to Arizona. We don't trek to Phoenix for the sun or for the golf, but instead fill our schedule with baseball, filling it as much as possible.

Spring Training baseball is a different beast as well. Managers throw strategy to the wind, more concerned with trying things to gauge their team. Superstars are trying to recapture their stroke, altering and tinkering until they find it. Others are playing in desperation, trying with everything they have to make a roster, make an extra 300k, make their pension. Boone Logan made the White Sox.

Only a peripheral college baseball fan, in May I went to my first College World Series regional, watching my preseason championship pick North Carolina host Winthrop, UNC-Wilmington and Maine. I saw scouts drool over Andrew Miller and analyze Daniel Bard, and family cheer for their son/brother/etc like you'll never hear at a Major League park.

As if I have to tell you, everything changes with an aluminum bat. I did see a 21-19 game, living up to the stereotype of the college game. But what I saw, what I loved about college baseball, was to see a game where mistakes are magnified. In a game where errors are much more commonplace than the Majors, college baseball almost always rewards the team that is well coached, plays good defense and pitches well. North Carolina, not so surprisingly, won with ease.

This year, I've seen a dozen minor league games, going from town to town trying to catch a glimpse of the players I have/will rank. Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen. The A's high school trio. Justin Upton and Delmon Young. And more.

It's a surreal experience to go to a game ready to just watch one player. To see baseball with blinders on, watching a player as he runs the bases, watching the third baseman field it only with peripheral vision. Watching how a player reacts to a ball off the bat, not following the ball into a mitt. I struggle with this, but am improving, learning slowly how to properly scout a prospect.

For five games in the summer, I watched the national Team USA, playing against Taiwan and Japan. I saw trick pitching from the Asian teams, I saw scrappy players that went with pitches like few Americans can. I saw Pedro Alvarez, a future first rounder, hit one of the longest home runs I've seen in person. I broke down David Price's weird delivery, and heard the buzz of scouts when Daniel Moskos first took the mound.

This week, I spent two days at the East Coast Professional Baseball Showcase, an event designed by those in the game to watch the best prep prospects on the Atlantic coast. I struggled through 105-degree heat to watch batting practice after batting practice, to see right fielders practice throws to third base, and catchers try to show off their pop times.

Certainly, this experience was the most difficult of all, and it was this that made me realize why I love baseball. This wasn't a 3-strikes, 3-outs type game that we're taught, but a fraction of it. Scouts gained as much from watching a shortstop field grounders and throw to first than they did watch him play against competition. With bits and pieces, the smartest men in baseball could discern prospect from suspect.'

What do I love about baseball? I love two things ...

I love the desperation. A player in search of a ring, a fringe player trying to make the 25-man, a college player on the field for the last time, a prospect attempting to rise above his competiton, a player swinging and pitching for his country, a teenager trying to impress a scout. Baseball isn't the same in Game 1 as it is in a baseball showcase, but the desperation is.

More than anything, I love the fragments of the national pastime. A Michael Main throw from right field. A Julio Borbon triple. Delmon Young's first home run of the season. Daniel Bard's beautiful, easy delivery. Boone Logan's unique, strange one. Bobby Jenks fastball, gliding past Jeff Bagwell's swing. Each moment different than every other, but as beautiful as the one before it.

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Short-season baseball. A hodgepodge of good college players, learning high school players, foreign players of every background. Age differences can run up to about 6 years - wood bat experience about the same.

For these reasons, judging short-season baseball has always been a torment to me. It's hard to get a good handle on players when you have very little context about what it means that they're doing. However, any dismissal of short-season baseball means you don't see Anibal Sanchez or Radhammes Liz coming, when everyone else did.

As of yet I have no great way to add context to short-season numbers, but I think it's best to pull players into categories they fit in, and evaluate them there. College players in short-season ball are evaluated separate from the high school players of the same caliber. Players who spent their springs in extended spring training get grouped into one as well.

Looking at the leaderboards and through the box scores of short-season leagues with this mindset, certain players start to jump out. Here's a list I have of players impressing in their non-impressive leagues this summer ...

Removed From Aluminum

We expect big things from the college crop at this level, as we would if they started next season in low-A. And most of the time, they deliver - short-season leaderboards are littered with college players, some just organizational guys drafted after the 20th round. Looking at the leaderboards, you then have to pick a player who has completely distinguished himself from those around him.

When Evan Longoria left the New York-Penn League, the home run race suddenly became a one man show. Yesterday, we talked about how Warren McFadden is benefitting in the Cape Cod League from no longer playing in Tulane's AAA stadium. The same is now happening for Mark Hamilton, who has twice as many home runs as the nearest slugger. Readers will know that I've long loved Hamilton, and that his stock really jumped for me when I found out he was hitting .245/.383/.592 on Friday nights in college. The Cards will probably jump Hamilton to high-A next season, but as long as the strikeouts don't bring him down, Hamilton should rise quickly. I still don't believe he slipped through the second round.

I'll go with an atypical selection for my pitcher in this category: Steve Uhlmansiek. Unlike Hamilton, Uhlmansiek wasn't playing in college baseball as of two months ago, nor even 14 months ago. But the Mariner southpaw was once Mike Pelfrey's ace-teammate at Wichita State, and Seattle drafted him knowing he had to be healed first. The road to recovery from arm surgery is a long one, so his performance thus far is just a stepping stone. But after spending two years forgotten about as a prospect, Uhlmansiek belongs in the discussion once again.

On Their Own For the First Time

The Oakland A's have appeared very focused on appearing less dogmatic in their drafting ways since Moneyball. That included drafting three high school pitchers in the high rounds in 2005, a group that has looked less than impressive in their first professional season. This season, they went the high school route early again, drafting high school slugger Matt Sulentic in the third round.

In addition to his high draft status, Sulentic also was aggressively promoted to the Northwest League, the higher of the A's two short-season affiliates. And unsurprisingly to Billy Beane and co., Sulentic has matched every challenge. Sulentic has a hit in each of his last six games, where he's collected five extra base hits and five walks. His .355 average is near the top of the NWL leaderboard - a remarkable feat for someone yet to turn 19.

Pitchers at this age are far more coddled by their organizations, making a selection here a little more difficult. Clayton Kershaw is a possibility, but the first high school pitcher should dominate the Gulf Coast League. I almost went with Sean O'Sullivan, who doesn't really fit the bill. But the year's top draft-and-follow is making another Angels investment look good.

Instead, we'll go with Jeremy Jeffress, who has proven that not every high school flame-thrower is raw. The Virginia right-hander touched the high 90s during the showcase circuit, making teams forget about his small 6-0 frame. Now, his performance on the mound is living up to those velocity readings. Jeffress hasn't allowed a run in his last three outings, and in those 11.2 innings, he's allowed 3 hits, 4 walks and struck out 12 batters. Suddenly, the Brewers pitching crop (Yovani Gallardo, Mark Rogers, Will Inman, Jeffress) is starting to look pretty impressive.

Making Up for Lost Time

Bonus babies need to be delicately taken care of, and as a result, many teams are now giving their high profile draftees a year wait to make their full-season debut. Instead, the player spends his spring in extended spring training, and his summer in short-season ball. The thinking is that a player learns how to be on his own in a controlled environment, while also setting up a player for better success in his first season.

One organization seeing a lot of positive feedback from this strategy is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Two of the Midwest League's best arms, Wade Davis and Jacob Magee, are both high school draftees who spent their 2005 seasons dominating the NYPL. Given their success, the team had little reservations about making Jeremy Hellickson wait to debut in full-season ball.

And again, the results are looking good, as Hellickson is leading the New York-Penn League in strikeouts with 38. Another small right-hander, Hellickson throws three good pitches - and offers plus pitchability. He'll have to sharpen his breaking pitch going forward to become an elite arm, but he's the most polished of the Davis-Magee-Hellickson bunch.

There was little competition for what hitter would win this award, because as dominating as Mark Hamilton has been on his home run race, Chris Carter has been better. Seemingly the sports world's most popular name, Carter is neither the old Vikings receiver of the Arizona Diamondbacks' AAA slugger. Instead, Carter was a higher round pick from Las Vegas by the White Sox last season that disappointed when they tried him in the South Atlantic League this season.

After his bad full-season trial, the team quickly pulled him, assigning him to extended spring training immediately. It's thought that he blossomed here, as Carter now has 10 home runs in the Pioneer League - the next closest number is five. While he's limited to first base and doesn't walk enough, players with Carter's type of power are few and far between. You can bet that now the Kannapolis Intimidators are desperately awaiting Carter's arrival.

Many other players would have fit this category, including a host of Angel prospects. Ryan Mount has been fantastic in Carter's shadow in the Pioneer League, and his presence up the middle makes him a better prospect. And the Angels drafted Trevor Bell before Mount, and Bell is near the league's top ERA mark.

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It should be no surprise that when you put wooden bats in the hands of aluminum-ready college hitters, they struggle. It's a pitching dream to make this 180, but an offensive nightmare.

However, despite depressed numbers, there is nothing better for a college player to spend his summer enduring the tribulations of using wood. Scouts flock to these leagues, trying to project how a player will handle the full-time switch. Some players see their stocks fly through the roof in these situations; other players watch their draft status fall.

No league is better in this regard than the Cape Cod League, which annually produces more top-round college talent than any summer destination. And even where the best of the best flock, struggles with wood follow. Twenty hitters drafted in the first five rounds of the 2006 draft spent their previous summer in the Cape; the group produced an aggregate .745 OPS.

We're nearing the end of the regular season in this year's version of the Cape, so it's time to look at potential names to add onto 2007 follow lists. While we'll save the pitchers for another day, here's my position breakdown of the best seasons/prospects that should be available for the 2007 draft.

Catcher

Starting at the top, we have Matt Wieters, who I previously stated as the top-ranked player for the 2007 draft. While Vanderbilt ace David Price is riding an impressive scoreless streak for Team USA, things have not changed as Wieters has produced substantially in his first Cape Cod League summer. The Georgia Tech catcher, who I previously mentioned would be the tallest in Major League history (or near the top), is hitting .329/.447/.529 this summer. Wieters was fantastic in the collegiate postseason, and if he continues on his current path, should be a top-3 pick next June.

Another catcher enjoying a strong summer is Josh Donaldson, from Auburn, who splits his time between behind the plate and the hot corner. Donaldson did throw out 38% of baserunners in his sophomore campaign, however, so don't be surprised if teams take him with the intention of making a full-time catcher out of him. With his current summer in the Cape Cod League, where he's hitting .320/.393/.524, teams won't have reservations playing him anywhere. The other player to watch at the position is Mitch Canham, champion Oregon State's backstop. This summer, Canham is hitting .344/.446/.492 following a good experience in Omaha.

First Base

There's a small crop on the right side this season, as only one name really sticks out as a potential high-round 2007 draftee: Matt Rizzotti. Despite playing at a small school, Manhattan, Rizzotti is enjoying his second good summer in the Cape. Scouts have seen enough of the first baseman to think highly of him. This summer, he's currently hitting .236/.401/.377, showing a lot of patience, a good amount of hitting ability, and a workable amount of power. Behind Rizzotti, there's very little, as only non-high tier prospects Mitch Moreland (Mississippi State) and Jordan Pacheco (New Mexico) moderately stick out.

Second Base

Clemson remained atop national rankings all season thanks to a fantastic offense that had no leader, but a high, high number of contributors. One of the better hitters for the Tigers was Taylor Harbin, who is continuing his good offensive production in the Cape. Harbin impressed often on television during the postseason, and scouts have high opinions of the second baseman, as well. Harbin doesn't have fantastic patience, but has a good amount of pop, all of which can be seen from his current .271/.304/.396 line.

Speed usually dominates this position, and a couple of other players find their way here because of their legs. Eric Farris is diminutive and offers very little pop, but his speed and patience should find him drafted next season. He's currently 10/12 on the bases in the Cape while hitting .344/.417/.406. Jeffrey Rea has not been as good at the plate or on the bases, but the Mississippi State middle infielder is the better prospect of the two. Rea will actually be a senior next season, so the leverage a team good have on him could yield a decent middle-round selection. This summer, Rea is hitting .293/.404/.358 with eight steals.

Shortstop

Surprisingly, the first position on the defensive spectrum has very few good players this summer, as many of the better players on this position currently play for Team USA. That leaves the best shortstop as Michael Fisher, another Georgia Tech player, which shows the reason for their big 2006 offense. Fisher's ability to play multiple positions might be his most attractive trait, because his bat has struggled a bit. This summer has been just OK, as Fisher is hitting .246/.342/.348. Another player to watch is Andrew Romine, from Arizona State, who didn't play often this spring due to returning from a scary blood clots surgery. Romine has all types of talent, but has yet to really put them on the field. He's a sleeper to look out for.

Third base

There's a couple players at the hot corner who stick out for me: Josh Satin (California) and Matt Mangini (Oklahoma State). The latter player is transferring there from N.C. State, where he made headlines with a huge start this spring. Mangini went on to have a decent second half, but his numbers remained solid. Teaming with Corey Brown next season, the Cowboys should have one of the nation's better 1-2 punches.

California looked to have a good 1-2 punch in Chris Errecart and Brennan Boesch at the beginning of the spring, but the two struggled, and Josh Satin emerged as one of the team's best hitters. His arrival has been prolonged this summer, as Satin seems to be upping his status to a top-3 rounder for next June. This summer, the Bear is hitting .262/.373/.346, and while the numbers don't look impressive, he's doing just enough to impress scouts.

Another player worth mentioning is Matt Cusick, the third baseman for USC. While Cusick offers nothing in the way of power, he's a good defender at third base and has great on-base skills. Rich Lederer has compared him to Bill Mueller. The comparison seems to be holding up in Cusick's wood bat trial, as he's hitting a defensible .283/.408/.349 on the summer. Teams will be scared off by his lack of power, but he should make the organization that gobbles him up in the middle rounds very happy.

Outfield

This is another position experiencing a weaker year than many in the past, as only a few players look to be solid, bona fide selections in next year's draft. One of them is Warren McFadden, who hit well in his redshirt freshman season with Tulane, smacking more than 20 doubles. The move from a Triple-A park to the Cape has gone well, some of those doubles have gone for homers, and McFadden's .270/.366/.487 line looks solid.

All Michael Taylor, of Stanford, needs to do is to convince the scouts that some of his tools will convert once he makes the full-time switch to wooden bats. So far, so good, as Taylor has impressed this summer. His patience remains an obstacle, as he has just a .287 OBP in the Cape, but his .197 ISO is one of the better numbers we have to report. Taylor runs well and hits for power, a combination that almost always yields a higher pick.

Colin Cowgill had a big breakthrough year with Kentucky in 2006, and has had a decent-enough summer to keep some dreams alive for next year's draft. His .232/.308/.379 line could certainly use some sprucing up, but a recent hot streak should do wonders for his stock. Also, keep an eye out for Tyler Henley, an outfielder from Rice. In the midst of a pretty big summer, .234/.390/.453, Henley could be getting the breakthrough he needs for a high selection.

As mentioned, next time around we'll look at the pitchers...

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Fact: In the prospect world, there is no one that creates more polarity than Jarrod Saltalamacchia. It isn't very close.

In a few popular midseason rankings, I have seen everything from Salty's ranking. He's been in the top 25 in one, to near the bottom of a top ten in catchers rankings. Jarrod was at 75 on my own list, and other sites would likely leave him out of the top 100.

If nothing else, Saltalamacchia represents one huge issue facing those who rank prospects: fish or cut bait?

After a good season as a teenager in the South Atlantic League in 2004, many (not including myself, unfortunately) predicted Salty would break out the next season. Scouts raved about Salty's bat, which only shined at times, but winced at his defense. With Brian McCann shining ahead of him in the system, Salty was a second tier prospect for the system.

Things changed last season, dramatically, when the catcher succeeded at one of the minor league's most difficult stadiums. Showing power that rivaled the best in the minors, projecting better offensive numbers for Salty than McCann was a common practice. Johnny Estrada was out the door, this we knew, but who was the right person to project as the Braves backstop?

Thanks to good defense in his Major League cup of coffee, along with solid offensive numbers, most people (this time including myself, thank you) went with Brian McCann. The Braves felt confidence in the slugger's ability to call a game, and didn't hesitate to start the season with him behind the plate. But they were prepared to have a problem of depth, surely the game's best problem to have.

Obviously, this season has not gone to plan. Saltalamacchia has hovered around the Mendoza Line for much of the season; his season numbers are among the worst of any full season qualifier in professional baseball. But in each quote, the catcher has maintained one fact: he's turned his focus from offense to defense this season. We have seen results, as I noted last week, as Salty's caught-stealing numbers are at a career high.

However, no team can employ a catcher with a sub-.600 OPS, no matter how good his defense is. Offensively, there have not even been the faintest signs of upside; Baseball America has reported scouts claim Salty looks lost at the plate. At the same time, McCann has predictably risen as one of the NL's better catchers; surely a player the Braves want for much of the next decade.

Surely the question most commonly circulating through the Braves player development channels is what method should the team take next to solve the catcher's problems. Do you put him at DH the rest of the season, and force him to tackle offense with the effort he's put on his ability to catch? If so, are you ready to accept Salty's future does not lie behind the plate? The Braves aren't, and have shown much in allowing Jarrod to stay behind the plate, and in AA this season.

In my latest rankings, I did not have Chris Iannetta ranked ahead of Saltalamacchia. Iannetta is in the midst of his own breakout season, poised to catch for the Rockies as early as 2007. His bat was better than both Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki in AA Tulsa, and his defense is better than Salty's. How?

Hope. The Braves need to make a change with Saltalamacchia, and should likely finish the season with something dramatic. But the player we saw last season cannot be simply lost. The Braves must now find him, and when they do, we'll see that Salty deserved to be ranked among the game's top 100 prospects, if not in the top quarter.

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Without a question, this is a sandwich prospect year for pitching prospects. On the way out is one of the best classes ever, on the way in is a draft that seemed to only boast pitchers. Yesterday, in the unveiling of my prospect list, just three pitchers made the first tier, which encompassed 23 players.

Today, in the second and final part of this installment, you will read about more pitchers than hitters. In all, 42 hitters made the list, against 33 pitchers. While this seems fairly even, the lack of top-flight pitching prospects leaves the two groups on different levels. While the likes of Andrew Miller and Brad Lincoln should help even things this winter, this is truly the season where TINSTAPP holds the most water.

Five Diamondbacks made the top tier yesterday, and one more player from the organization will be discussed today. This gives the club the minors' premier farm system, and should make Mike Rizzo the top GM prospect on the market. Who else has constructed good systems and future job prospects? Read on, for the rest of my midseason top 75, to find out...

24. Colby Rasmus, of: Cardinals (A+)

I've reached a summer record of most minor league games seen in person this year, and I maintain Rasmus is the sweetest swing I have encountered. His ceiling is lower than the other freakish outfielders in his class, but Rasmus does everything with ease.

25. Joel Guzman, of/3b: Dodgers (AAA)

Slips out of the first tier because he hasn't taken the step forward that many others in the organization have. Guzman has a good future in baseball, but I believe his best development route would be the Major League school of hard knocks with a bad organization that could afford waiting him out.

26. Scott Elbert, lhsp: Dodgers (AA)

In contrast, Elbert has taken that step forward this season. Currently the best southpaw in the minor leagues, Elbert has electric stuff, as control is the only thing holding him back from elite status.

27. Yovani Gallardo, sp: Brewers (AA)

One of the season's best success stories, Gallardo offers excellent pitchability for a 20-year-old. The only question is whether his stuff will be enough to hang near the top of a rotation.

28. Humberto Sanchez, sp: Tigers (AAA)

For me, Sanchez was among the most impressive in the Futures Game, even if he showed the nation how large he really is. If Jim Leyland is serious about a 6-man rotation in the second half, Sanchez' presence in the Majors shouldn't slow Detroit down.

29. Dustin Pedroia, 2b: Red Sox (AAA)

After a slow start, Pedroia has come on strong, and appears ready for the Major Leagues. He'll get his chance in 2007, and should be a solid regular in the middle infield for years to come.

30. Matt Garza, sp: Twins (AA)

Garza's name this high on the list is testament to Mike Radcliffe, the game's best scouting director. Garza has slowed a bit in AA, but his dominance in AA showed big-time potential.

31. Jason Hirsh, sp: Astros (AAA)

Free Jason Hirsh!

32. Reid Brignac, ss: Devil Rays (A+)

The best success story of my breakout picks, Brignac has brought the power stick to Visalia. His high error total creates a questionable future, and we still need to see this away from the Pacific.

33. Brandon Erbe, sp: Orioles (A-)

In many ways, the Jay Bruce of the pitching class, as I would not be surprised (in the slightest), if Erbe is the top-ranked pitching prospect in a year. For now, we have to hope his arm doesn't break down even amidst the Orioles enviable coddling.

34. John Danks, lhsp: Rangers (AAA)

Another slow starter in the higher levels, Danks only slides a bit on my prospect list. Southpaw starters with high ceilings are a rare commodity, so the Rangers will execute a lot of patience with the one-time first rounder.

35. Felix Pie, of: Cubs (AAA)

This is the beginning of a freefall if Pie doesn't pick things up. The tools are all there, but since May 1, any type of performance has not. Things need to change in the second half.

36. Fernando Martinez, of: Mets (A-)

Like Tabata yesterday, I'm too scared to put him both any lower or any higher. Immensely talented, evaluating Martinez properly will be difficult until he has a long bill of health.

37. Micah Owings, sp: Diamondbacks (AAA)

Owings provides a lot of polish and has flown through the Arizona system. A late-season cup of coffee will complete a whirlwind two-year run for Owings.

38. Daric Barton, 1b/dh: Athletics (DL)

Like Jason Kubel last year, we can't really penalize Barton too much for getting injured. His early season struggles were worrisome, but only a real cynic would have soured on his bat already.

39. Nolan Reimold, of: Orioles (A+)

The rare raw college player, Reimold has a long way to go before he reaches his ceiling. However, he's shown a bit of everything in Frederick, leaving Orioles fans salivating.

40. Eric Hurley, sp: Rangers (A+)

It has been an awesome season for Hurley, pitching well across the board in the Cal League. His stuff is fantastic, and if he receives a late-summer promotion, don't be surprised if his ERA increases.

41. Edinson Volquez, sp: Rangers (AAA)

This is a cautious ranking, as Volquez has earned this position, I just don't have a lot of confidence in it. When I close my eyes and try to envision his career, I foresee a middle reliever every time.

42. Adam Miller, sp: Indians (AA)

Miller will have a hard time ever meeting the expectations laid out for him after flashing so much potential in the 2004 season. However, this season has been a step in the right direction for the Indians star righthander.

43. Trevor Crowe, of: Indians (A+)

Right behind Miller on the Indians prospect list is Crowe, who has shown a lot of skills in a lot of different areas this season. His walk rate is particularly exciting, as he could develop into an invaluable asset alongside Grady Sizemore. Perhaps he'll be the player everyone thought Franklin Gutierrez could be.

44. Hunter Pence, of: Astros (AA)

At some point, you have to give a guy credit if he continues to have success, despite the naysayers not going away. Pence has legitimate power, and is going to have some success in the Major Leagues. However, there's a gray line between some success and consistent success, and thanks to his BB/K rate, I can't see which side he's on quite yet.

45. Gio Gonzalez, lhsp: Phillies (AA)

Another cautious ranking, as I'm beginning to worry if Gonzalez is injured. Since June 1 the southpaw has an ERA north of 6, and has allowed home runs in each start. If the breaking ball isn't as crisp, is something wrong with the arm?

46. Eric Campbell, 3b: Braves (A-)

Doesn't receive the hype he should, as Campbell has hit for a fantastic amount of power in his full-season debut. While he doesn't quite walk enough yet, his great contact rate leaves all the makings for a future All-Star hitter.

47. Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers (AA)

Braun seems to be among the minors most hot-and-cold hitters, especially when the third baseman reaches new levels. A future dynamite fantasy option, Braun has continued to impress after a promotion to Huntsville.

48. Andrew McCutchen, of: Pirates (A-)

My concern after seeing McCutchen is that he's just too skinny to ever develop good power. But for now, he can fly with the best of them, and with refinement should be a weapon in centerfield and at the top of a batting order.

49. Chuck Lofgren, lhsp: Indians (A+)

Athletic and polished, Lofgren has done even better than I could have imagined in March. The southpaw thrives on good pitchability, but also has the stuff to thrive at higher levels.

50. Wade Davis, sp: Devil Rays (A-)

A popular breakout candidate that I never backed, Davis has been fantastic in the Midwest League this season. The righthander has slowed down since a fantastic start, but he has the power stuff to move in a hurry.

51. Ricky Romero, lhsp: Blue Jays (AA)

The Blue Jays stayed cautious and allowed Romero to debut late, but he made up for lost time, dominating the Florida State League. He has struggled a bit in two AA starts, but Romero is not making the Blue Jays regret taking the safe route last June.

52. Adam Lind, of: Blue Jays (AA)

Just as I expected, Lind has seen many of his 2005 doubles clear the fence this season. A talented power hitter, I'm curious where his patience went since last season. A better walk rate the only improvement he needs to make offensively.

53. Troy Patton, lhsp: Astros (A+)

Patton moves up slowly in this list, basically staying stagnant with a season that falls short of some expectations. He has still showed a lot of the maturity that draws such high praise, but also has been hit harder at the new level. His next jump, the big one, will go a long way in determining the truth to his profile.

54. Kevin Slowey, sp: Twins (AA)

Put your guns down, people. Slowey has had an amazing season, even a historic one, but he just isn't the caliber of the guys in front of him. His continued success in the Eastern League is a good sign, but I don't see the ceiling that other people do with Slowey. However, another half like this one went, and he'll undoubtedly break the top 50.

55. Thomas Diamond, sp: Rangers (AA)

Losing your control at an age as old as Diamond is not, not, not a good thing. Diamond has shown improvement recently, but a half like he's had is worthy of the slide on this list that he's received.

56. Joey Votto, 1b: Reds (AA)

I was told a couple years ago by an industry executive that Votto would break out in 2005. It appears my information was a year early, as Votto has been fantastic this season, making Adam Dunn's non-move to 1B look genius. He should be manning the corner in Cincy by Opening Day 2008, at the latest.

57. Ubaldo Jimenez, sp: Rockies (AAA)

Big breakout first half, spotty record in the past, stuff that remains filthy and unrefined. Jimenez could go both directions, but the most likely destination remains a successful bullpen role.

58. Sean West, lhsp: Marlins (A-)

Pitching on a historic staff in Greensboro this summer, West has emerged as the best blend of stuff and pitchability of the rotation's four first rounders. Aaron Thompson can't match West's stuff, Ryan Tucker doesn't have anywhere near the pitchability. Chris Volstad is an anomaly; West is the best.

59. Neil Walker, c: Pirates (A+)

Dropping him this far is less an indictment of Walker's first half, and more an indictment of my winter ranking: it was too high. I took some late excitement about his power potential and pushed Walker to 44, which was setting the bar of expectations too high. His current performance is way below that, however, and he'll need to bounce back from his injury problems in a big way during the second half.

60. Scott Mathieson, sp: Phillies (AA)

Just like Humberto, Mathieson has continued upon a successful winter stint to pitch very well this season. His stuff really isn't in Sanchez' vicinity, but Mathieson looks like he definitely isn't far from being a #2/3 starter in the Majors. If so, even this ranking is too low.

61. George Kottaras, c: Padres (AA)

Has continued to improve after a 2005 season in which he turned heads but also showed flaws. Kottaras has the patience and gap power to succeed in PETCO, and he should be behind the plate for a long time. I'm coming around as a believer.

62. Jose Arredondo, sp: Angels (AA)

One of the most interesting stories on this list, Arredondo was an infielder just two seasons ago. While Carlos Marmol had a similar track catapult him to the big leagues, Arredondo is making his own push for Majors. Already on the 40-man, and as surprising as this is, a September call-up would no longer be too shocking.

63. Jacob Magee, lhsp: Devil Rays (A-)

The better statistic half of the D-Rays' low-level aces, Magee doesn't quite have the stuff of Wade Davis. However, his strikeout rate and handedness are both huge pluses, and Magee could take off with another good half-season.

64. Josh Fields, 3b: White Sox (AAA)

Fields has improved by leaps of bounds this year, showing one of the better power strokes in the minor leagues. Fields, however, has a lot of trouble making contact, and will need to continue to post high BABIP rates to succeed. His currently level is unsustainable, but if moved to left field, Fields can still be a valuable part of the White Sox in the near and long-term future.

65. Radhammes Liz, sp: Orioles (A+)

His statistics are amazing, consistently, but his age is damning. Liz has the fastball to move up the ladder, but the Orioles have been stubborn about promoting him. The time is now to see if Liz has a future beyond the bullpen.

66. Mike Bowden, sp: Red Sox (A-)
67. Clay Buchholz, sp: Red Sox (A-)

These two are extremely similar; picking between them is nothing more than intuition. I'm going with Bowden, who is younger and has been a bit better since struggling early in the season. Both are good prospects, and the Red Sox probably wouldn't mind if all their top prospects had clones.

68. Gaby Hernandez, sp: Marlins (A+)

Hernandez has continued to pitch like a solid middle-rotation guy this season, which means the Marlins got what they paid for. Actually, more ... we can all agree Lo Duca is overrated, no? Hernandez is just another pitching prospect in this organization, but whether they trade him or add him onto their young staff, he's definitely a valued commodity.

69. James Loney, 1b: Dodgers (AAA)

It's been a long road back for Loney, who has been fantastic in the PCL this season. He's great defensively, and his contact skills are as good as it gets. But his lack of power is worrisome, not just with a future in Dodger Stadium, but a future in the Major Leagues.

70. Glen Perkins, lhsp: Twins (AA)

Hasn't been fantastic, but Perkins has been a good incumbent in the New Britain rotation. A hometown Minnesota boy, Perkins might have more value to the Twins than your average #3/4 pitching prospect.

71. Jacobby Ellsbury, of: Red Sox (A+)

I went over his profile recently, but really, the Red Sox are getting a little less this season than what they bargained for last June. However, Ellsbury has still been great defensively and has continued to shown a lot of the skills necessary to be a future leadoff man.

72. Asdrubal Cabrera, mi: Indians (AAA)

I'm preaching patience with the bat here, and wincing in thoughts of how he might produce in the Majors if the Indians allow him to replace Ronnie Belliard at second next season (hint: not good). Cabrera's bat is a long-term project, but his defense is not. It's already a fantastic tool, good enough to move Jhonny Peralta to a new position (in a perfect world). He shouldn't have a full-time job in the Majors next season, but he is going to be good for a long time.

73. Cesar Carrillo, rhp: Padres (DL)

This ranking might be aggressive given his recent injury, but Carrillo was very good before the injury tarnished his first full season. A good rehab program could have Carrillo better than ever. Padres fans are just hoping his rehab program goes better than the Tim Stauffer route.

74. Dustin McGowan, rhp: Blue Jays (AAA)

Will the real Dustin McGowan please stand up?

75. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c: Braves (AA)

I'm not ready to let go, yet. Salty has legitimately improved behind the plate this season, but that can be discounted when reminded how bad he's been with the bat. It's been awful. There was too much talent last year to close the book on him, but the day we can is not far away.

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It's hard to believe what a difference six months makes. Winter is a time for projection, for hope, a time where each prospect's cup is half-full. But thrown bats and extended slumps change everything, including the ranking of prospects.

As I have done in the past, I have once again compiled a ranking of the minors' best 75 prospects. While the name atop the list has not changed, it came with far less ease than in January. Below Delmon, everything remains in flux.

I have decided to make eligibility requirements subjective this season, opting to not include any player that should lose his prospect eligibility by season's end. Any player currently in the Majors was exempt, and many in the minors (read: Lastings Milledge) were taken off the list by my subjectivity. If, in fact, these players remain prospects for another season, you can expect they'll be back in another six months. And by then, I think we can agree, everything will be different all over again.

My thought process when ranking prospects works in tiers, and while I would normally reserve this day for a ranking of the top 25, I found it more educational to cut things off at the end of my first ranked tier of prospects. Enjoy...

1. Delmon Young, of: Devil Rays (AAA)

Following the Delmon Young press conference, I had decided Young would not be my top prospect at the midseason mark. It would be my way of not just indicting his bad showing of make-up, but his low walk and home run totals in AAA as well. Then I saw Young for the first time, the night of his first home run, and my mind was changed. The power is going to come, I promise. He's hitting .375 with seven extra-base hits and just 11 strikeouts in 19 games since returning. Minor league baseball has no better player.

2. Alex Gordon, 3b: Royals (AA)

Like I said, Young was not my first prospect three weeks ago, Gordon was. And if I had stayed with that decision, it would have been defensible. Gordon represents the best bet for success in the minor leagues; he has no discernible flaw. He's going to hit for average, a lot of power, draw plenty of walks, play steady defense, and steal enough bases to make his fantasy owners giddy. Suddenly his four figure baseball card is looking like a sound investment, no?

3. Howie Kendrick, 2b: Angels (AAA)
4. Brandon Wood, ss: Angels (AA)

Wood has done little for this order to be flip-flopped, continuing on a path to success after a ridiculous 2005. But this season it's Kendrick to take the full step forward, catapulting himself past Wood and into the top five.

Kendrick, I've said before, is a player with limited potential value. In other words, his ceiling has a roof. Confined by his own stature, there is a limit to the power Kendrick can develop in relation to Wood. However, Kendrick is nearly guaranteed to hit for a better average than Wood.

The ranking of these two players is a simple test of risk vs. reward. Kendrick offers no risk, but his reward is limited in comparison to Wood, whose ceiling is highest among current prospects.

5. Justin Upton, of: Diamondbacks (A-)

Watching Upton in person, the top overall pick from last year exudes an aura that doesn't usually follow teenagers. The aura was first evident in Spring Training, when Upton's build and bat were enough to hold his own in big league camp. He shined on the national stage, saving what some would call his best Cactus League game for a contest against the White Sox on WGN. Now far from the big stage, Upton is struggling a bit, but in seeing him, it's obvious there is more than the numbers tell us. Upton will come around, if not at the pace I thought, and when he does, sparks will fly.

6. Stephen Drew, ss: Diamondbacks (AAA)

If Drew began the season in the Arizona batting order, it would have surprised no one had he separated himself from the NL Rookie of the Year pack. Instead, the Diamondbacks chose the cautious route with their young shortstop, maintaining another year of mediocrity from the position for the betterment of their future. Good decision. Drew has progressed as expected in AAA, and he is on the right timetable to make a splash next season. A gifted offensive player, Drew has even more to show than what he has since signing in pro baseball.

7. Billy Butler, of: Royals (AA)

I have always believed in Butler's bat, and on Sunday, his performance in the Futures Game showed why this is a good idea. Butler is as good a hitter for his age as it gets, he's polished and powerful. His play in the field is a work in progress, but it's improving, even at a Carlos Lee-type rate. The most concerning blip on Butler's radar is a drastic home/road split that favors his time in Wichita. For all we know, it's nothing, but it's also worth keeping notice. Butler is going to hit in the Majors, and with Gordon, Dayton Moore's long-term vision is beginning to come in better focus.

8. Cameron Maybin, of: Tigers (A-)

There have been a lot of positives about Cameron Maybin's season, his full season debut. Any teenager holding his own in such a difficult league is worthy of praise. Maybin has also been lucky, striking out at a percentage too high to keep his batting line as high as it is. a true five-tool player, the North Carolina outfielder is far more raw than he has shown this season. But underneath it all, the Tigers - who landed the top rated player in the 2006 draft - may have landed the top player in 2005.

9. Phil Hughes, sp: Yankees (AA)
10. Homer Bailey, sp: Reds (AA)

Bailey was not an oversight in my listing of the top pitching prospects weeks ago, I told someone after that article that Bailey wouldn't rank high for me until he showed "consistent dominance." So, upon promotion, Bailey decided to go off, and currently has a 17 inning scoreless streak going at Double-A. He has earned his status as the game's 1A pitching prospect, especially after a dominating performance in Sunday's Futures Game.

Hughes was not as good on Sunday, but his stuff was solid, and you could see the makings of a very good player. Unlike Bailey he won't always necessarily amaze a scout, but his polish is pretty unique for a player his age. It's a good sign that Hughes has already turned a corner in AA, and at this pace, he should be up to New York at some point next season.

11. Jay Bruce, of: Reds (A-)

Earlier in the season, I did a study on teenage hitters in the Midwest League. Needless to say, the list of success stories was a short one; the expectation level for this group is (as a result) low. The type of season that Jay Bruce is having so far is unprecedented. Bruce is hitting for power at rates that even Prince Fielder did not at such an age. And he's doing so with a decent-enough strikeout rate. On the shortlist of people that wouldn't surprise me to be atop this list in a year.

12. Troy Tulowitzki, ss: Rockies (AA)

The best combination of offensive and pure shortstop ability on this list. Drew isn't a bad defender, but neither his range or arm can match Tulo up the middle. While Troy is not the same caliber hitter, he is in the ballpark. Tulowitzki offers good power for a middle infielder, and he has the patience learned from three big program collegiate years. Tulowitzki's problem is a strikeout rate that is too high, his one drawback from being complete as a hitter.

13. Andy Marte, 3b: Indians (AAA)

Things were a struggle for Marte much into the season; he was drawing poor reviews and his numbers followed. Marte was a mess; Atlanta and Boston could not have appeared smarter. While it's too early to say Marte has turned a corner, he's done enough to salvage his status as a first tier prospect. We continue to hope that Marte will eventually mold into a superstar, turn his promising young seasons into a star-studded future. Such a breakout may never happen, but color me surprised if Marte doesn't still build a solid career.

14. Carlos Quentin, of: Diamondbacks (AAA)

At this point, the fact that Quentin has not been given an extended trial in the big leagues is discouraging. In the winter, we asked what would by so wrong about Andy Marte to make two (good) organizations trade him. Now, Quentin is bringing up similar questions. Why are the D-Backs so reluctant to give Quentin the keys? At this point, the outfielder has shown patience (while continuing his high HBP totals), a very good contact rate and gap power. Quentin has polish all over his bat, and soon, teams will have to truly investigate what Arizona's asking price is on their #3 prospect.

15. Elijah Dukes, of: Devil Rays (AAA)

It's both a good and a bad sign when the only flaw in a prospect's resume is make-up. We can now say definitively that the Devil Rays did not assign enough value towards make up, but how important is it? The future of Dukes will go a long way in answering this question, he's truly a player whose progress will only be hindered by himself. I won't be surprised if Dukes ends up the best player on this list; I won't be surprised if he is a complete bust. With Elijah Dukes, only the middle would be a surprise.

16. Chris Young, of: Diamondbacks (AAA)

Undervalued before the 2005 season, I thought Young started to become overvalued this winter. He hit for power well, steals bases and plays very good defense, but batting average is a substantial limiting factor. With that being said, Young has struck out in just 18.3% of his at-bats this season, a very positive number. Look for Young's .282 BABIP to improve in the second half, and with it, his batting average. While we'd like it for Young to be showing more on the bases to call him a five tool talent, giving him credit for the "Hitting for Contact" tool is a big step in the right direction.

17. Andy LaRoche, 3b: Dodgers (AAA)

Three straight Bryan Smith pre-2005 breakout selections, sweet! LaRoche answered a lot of questions this season when he turned his Southern League struggles from last season around, looking like a much more complete player. While in AA, the third baseman walked in about 15% of his plate appearances, rarely struck out, and showed some of the power he had in Vero Beach a year before. I wouldn't be surprised if LaRoche struggles a bit as a rookie in 2007, and in the same league as David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman he might not make many All-Star teams, but he's a big chip in the Dodgers reconstruction.

18. Adam Jones, of: Mariners (AAA)
19. Jeff Clement, c: Mariners (AAA)

From a fantasy perspective, Jeff Clement is the Mariners best prospect. The list of power-hitting catchers at the Major League level is a short one, and a list Clement should be adding his name to by 2008. Despite his struggles coming back from injury in AAA, Clement has given the Mariners a lot of reason for optimism about their future backstop logjam. Given how quickly Clement should rise towards the top of any fantasy catcher list, keeper leaguers should have Clement ranked higher.

From a baseball standpoint, Jones is the better prospect. On the bases and in the field, Jones is superior. He brings a unique degree of athleticism to the game - his transition to the outfield has gone seamlessly. And if Jones joins Choo and Ichiro in a Major League outfield, it's quite possible baseball will have never seen three stronger arms in the same outfield. At the plate, Jones has improved as the season has progressed, showing more patience and better contact skills.

Jones shouldn't be a superstar on the Seattle Mariners, but he'll be a good one for a long time.

20. Carlos Gonzalez, of: Diamondbacks (A+)

The Diamondbacks have five prospects ranked higher than the top prospect of 19 organizations. Now really, is there any doubting that (scouting director) Mike Rizzo deserves a GM job somewhere? Gonzalez is not the best bet for success (Quentin) or player with the highest ceiling (Upton) in the organization, but he scores well in both categories. After hitting for solid power in the Midwest League last year, his huge slugging numbers in Lancaster should not come as a surprise. Gonzalez is better than the player he was last year, and not quite the player his numbers suggest currently. But with a few more walks and less strikeouts, the latter could very well change.

21. Jose Tabata, of: Yankees (A-)

Volatility. It scares me. If Tabata flames out, I look too quick to pull the trigger. But any lower, and you look stupid when he becomes a star. For now, his standing towards the back of the first tier will have to do, but it's a long way between now and 2009. Tabata has shown a solid contact rate, good doubles power, solid patience and good baserunning in his full season debut. And he's 17. Or is it, "But he's 17"?

22. Ian Stewart, 3b: Rockies (AA)

As you can tell, with his performance this season, I have dropped Felix Pie from the first tier. Ian Stewart, I have to say, is on the verge of getting the same treatment. While the third baseman is not posting Pie-type numbers in the Texas League, he has been pedestrian. For only so long can pedestrian be good enough. Eventually, we'll have to see that Stewart is going to turn those 26 doubles into home runs, and that he might be able to hit for average. For now, the hope of 2004 lingers enough to keep him in the top 25.

23. Nick Adenhart, sp: Angels (A+)

In a lot of ways, Adenhart is similar to Phil Hughes, a good blend of stuff and serious polish. Adenhart, for three months, has pitched far older than his age and level indicates. While he hasn't posted the double-digit-type K/9 numbers that many pitching prospects ranked higher and lower than him have, Adenhart offers poise that very few in the minors have ... for his age, only Hughes is close. The minor leagues continue to offer success story after success story for the Angels, who have quite the stable of young pitchers in Jered Weaver, Jose Arredondo and Adenhart to go with their accomplished pitching veterans.

Part Two, with 24-75, coming tomorrow...

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Is it too early to mention the word 'dynasty' in Chicago? With one championship already in tow, the Sox appear to be the near-favorites to repeat in 2007. Even if they fall up short, the White Sox recent run has put fans in the stands, money in the payroll, and wins on the scoreboard. At the least, the Sox need to be thinking in dynasty terms.

Kenny Williams now faces the difficult job of keeping the momentum going. He has set the bar high for himself and the organization, and the pressure will be on to continue winning games. This winter, he excelled in this role, taking chances that -- in the cases of Thome, Vazquez and Cintron -- are now paying off two-fold.

We all remember the New York Yankees dynasty in the 1990s, one built on homegrown success with players like Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera. We have also seen the Yankees on a current world championship slide that I think every Sox fan would hope to avoid in a few years.

So what is it that the Yankees failed to do? Well, with all kinds of money, the Yankees went out and started buying. They bought the perceived best in everything, and forgot what earned them championships - player development. Meshing in youth with proven veterans became a philosophy Brian Cashman discarded.

I'm here to say the White Sox must avoid this trend. Kenny Williams must continue to fill certain slots with youth, making the difficult decisions of when to bring on a prospect, and when to trade him. Today, we'll look at the Sox Major League roster and minor league depth chart, and try to answer some of those questions.

As an outsider, I don't think it's a stretch to say the current White Sox have two weaknesses: Scott Podsednik and the bullpen. Pods is currently manning a .698 OPS, and his defense has drawn criticism from Ozzie himself. As far as the bullpen goes, I think an aggregate 4.43 ERA was not what the Sox had in mind. These are the first places to look into the farm system.

Williams toed the line of angering his team when he traded Aaron Rowand this winter, a good friend to many and a valued member of the clubhouse. Williams was lucky to have Brian Anderson ready and Jim Thome coming to lighten the blow, leaving no White Sox player too upset. However, along the backlash lines, I don't think the Sox can really afford to bench, trade or release Podsednik this season.

Surely, the current lineup has enough firepower to withstand Podsednik's offensive inadequacies. But in the future, the Sox can't afford to depend on that. Luckily, at the end of the season, Podsednik is a free agent. Williams will be making no public relations risk when allowing Podsednik to ride into the sunset. And with that, left field will be open.

Yes, the Sox will have money to potentially acquire a big name to fill Pod's small shoes. But since left field expectations are already low, and the Sox have potential replacements in Triple-A, I don't see the point. To me, this means Spring Training competition: Ryan Sweeney v. Jerry Owens v. Josh Fields.

Fields? Fields. As a pro, the former Cowboy has yet to play a single position besides third base. The Sox have let this ride up to Triple-A, up to Fields' breakout as a prospect. Third base is already manned by someone sub-30, and will continue to be as Joe Crede just entered arbitration in 2006.

One option is to trade Fields while his value is high, his prospect status seemingly at a pinnacle. But answer me this: if you were another GM, would you not see that Williams has a depth problem? If he leaves Fields at third base, he has no choice but to trade him, right? Wouldn't you then offer less for the 2004 first rounder?

My belief is that Fields should begin playing left field now, for the rest of the season, and continue to do so in the Arizona Fall League. Next season, Fields should compete with the other current members of the Knights outfield for the left field spot, which will have been vacated by Scott Podsednik's exit from the lineup.

Seeing as though defense is part of the White Sox brand, I can see you all wince at the thought of putting a never-before-outfielder in left. But we aren't talking CLee-type defense with Fields, to say that would be to underrate his athleticism. This was a Big 12 quarterback, my friends, and a player currently apt to steal a base. It would take him awhile to learn the reads, but with a half-season, the AFL, and Spring Training, I think he would be ready.

Some would argue his bat already is. Fields has both 33 extra-base hits and walks in Triple-A, both in just 243 at-bats. He has stolen 13 bags in 17 attempts (there's that athleticism, again), and is sporting a .957 OPS. The power and patience are there, and he would add another home run threat to a lineup in Chicago chock-full of them. The question mark is his contact ability.

With 78 strikeouts so far, Fields is whiffing in an atrocious 30+ percent of his at-bats. To maintain a .321 batting average, Fields has a ridiculous .448 batting average on balls in play. While his ability to hit the ball hard would indicate his BABIP should be higher than the average player, .448 is completely unsustainable. So, my concern about Josh Fields would be that in the Major Leagues, there's a good chance his batting average will look like Crede's did, in 2004.

If not Fields, the other options would be Sweeney or Owens. Sweeney has been an organizational darling since Spring Training 2004; the field in Tucson still wet from the Sox' organizational drool. His results in the power department, however, have been lacking. This season, Sweeney's ability to hit a single has continued. He remains a fantastic contact ability, though his current strikeout rate (16.2%) is nearly 30 percent higher than it was in 2004-2005 (12.5%).

Sweeney cannot, however, up his extra-base hit percentage. This season, Sweeney has continued to hit for more bases in about 6% of his at-bats, where Josh Fields is at 13.6%. Sweeney will likely be able to hit .280-.300 as a pro, but any slugging far above .400 would be a surprise. Given a walk rate that isn't bad but far from great, you're looking at about .280/.320/.380 next season. Note that I do think Sweeney has upside at this line, but it would take a philosophical change to learning to elevate the ball more that he has to undergo.

The eldest of the group, Jerry Owens, is having the most struggles with Charlotte. His current .241/.305/.314 line is far from a career .757 OPS. But really, our focus should be that career OPS, likely headed to about .720. Can we truly expect Owens to out-perform Podsednik when he has merely done so at lower levels? Like Sweeney, Owens is a gifted contact hitter, and also one that can draw a walk. Add on his ability to steal bases at an awesome rate, and you can see why the Sox like him.

But while Sweeney hits the ball hard, but into the ground, Owens doesn't really hit the ball hard at all. This explains a lower BABIP than Sweeney, and will be the cause of (far) lower 2006 predictions.

The answer, as we've seen it, is Josh Fields. His conversion to left field should begin now, and the Sox should also be preparing Sweeney as a back-up plan. Owens, in this case, is odd-man out. The only other option, in my mind, is trading for a left fielder using one of the already-established starters. But we'll deal with the pitching staff in part two.

Before I go, some quick thoughts on handling the rest of the offense:

No Major League draft prospect is more coveted than the five tool player. While baseball's highest level is littered with success stories, athletic outfielders have been among the largest busts of the first round. Many in baseball claim teams should adopt a safer approach in regards to the draft, taking safer picks from the college ranks.

Rarely do these two paths intersect. And in the rare instances they do, the players are high commodities, with dreams of Barry Bonds dancing in the heads of scouting directors. This past June, Drew Stubbs was drafted in the top ten as the quintessential example of five-tool pipe dream mixed with collegiate intelligence.

The 2005 draft offered three of these players. A half season into their full season debuts, their success comes as a small surprise to many around baseball. Two first round picks and one third rounder, all three players were highly desired for their speed, their defense in center, their ability to bat around the top of the order. While not prodigious in one of the five tools -- power -- all offered some hope of projectablity.

All similar athletes with similar profiles, choosing an order is the perfect example of the difficulties -- and the silly subjectivity -- of ranking prospects. Gardner, Crowe, Ellsbury. Or is it Ellsbury, Gardner, Crowe? Today, we'll attempt to hash out which players belong in which order, and why.

THE EARLY YEARS

Athletic young outfielders are a commodity out of the preps, but to be a draft choice, there needs to be a ridiculous amount of tools or very good refinement. In 2002, Denard Span and Jeremy Hermida were examples of players that fit the bill. Trevor Crowe, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner were not. All three players had strong college commitments, and these commitments were founded upon a lack of high interest from Major League organizations. Crowe and Ellsbury were both second day picks, in that order, while Gardner did not get drafted.

As far as college destinations go, the players picked programs that ranked in order of how they did in the draft. Crowe, the most talented of the group, went to Arizona. After not starting as a regular, Crowe ended his freshman season with 187 at-bats, and a .316 batting average. He didn't walk and showed little but gap power, but Crowe could steal bases and hit for average. He was exactly what the Wildcats bargained for.

Ellsbury became a regular quicker at Oregon State, and produced more. A .330/.427/.510 line his freshman season turned a lot of scouts' heads, and suddenly Ellsbury was on the map for the 2005 draft. A great defender in centerfield, teams were drooling. On the opposite end, Brett Gardner wasn't drawing any notice, struggling in his first season at College of Charleston. His .284 batting average and 28 steals were both good, but Gardner struck out 50 times and had just 11 extra-base hits in 215 at-bats.

As sophomores, Gardner and Crowe both did well in catching up to Ellsbury, and both owed their newfound success to the triple. Both players logged 9 triples on the year, as Crowe's slugging percentage went up to .576, Gardner just two points behind. Crowe also stole 26 bases in 27 chances, and showed an improved batting eye. He flew up follow lists. Gardner did the same, nearly hitting .400 in a fabulous display of future leadoff talents. While Gardner didn't boast the pedigree of Ellsbury and Crowe, all three entered their junior seasons separated by little.

BEFORE AND AFTER

It is not difficult to figure out why Trevor Crowe was the first of the three players drafted, taken 12th overall in 2005 by the Cleveland Indians. As a junior, Crowe exploded, jumping his triples total to 15, giving him 49 XBH in the small college season. His 36 walks showed a huge improvement in two seasons, and his 27 stolen bases with a career single season high. Crowe was for real, and the Indians loved the Oregon native.

In Crowe's home state, Ellsbury was making noise as the Beavers had a Cindarella run to Omaha. Much of the team's press went towards Ellsbury, who seemed to act as the soul behind the team. Ellsbury struck out just 21 times in the leadoff role as a junior, hitting .406 en route to a first round draft choice by the Red Sox.

Brett Gardner had the best numbers of the three players, but was not drafted until the end of the third round, by the Yankees. Playing in a worse conference, Gardner feasted on college pitching as a junior, hitting a ridiculous .447/.506/.571. Gardner also had great speed, stealing 38 bases. A quick look at his college numbers validated that the Yankees received good value on their choice.

After signing quickly, Gardner and Ellsbury would play against each other in the New York-Penn short-season league. Unsurprisingly, Ellsbury was better than his peer, stealing four more bases while boasting a .097 advantage in the OPS column. Crowe was struggling, but the Indians had been aggressive with him, pushing their first round pick to the Sally League. His .326 slugging percentage raised question marks, and many began to wonder if the patient Ellsbury was perhaps the best of the bunch.

GETTING HIGH-A

The most discouraging aspect of Ellsbury's season has been his abandonment of the base on balls. Consistently one of the group's most patient hitters with aluminum bats, Jacoby's walk totals have gone down as Crowe's have gone up. While no team could scoff at a .384 on-base percentage from the leadoff role, an extended time treading 50-70 points behind his athletic peers will leave him in the dust.

As mentioned, Crowe has turned things up this season. He is walking in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, which is more than a 15% increase since his freshman season at Arizona. In addition to his more patient approach, Crowe is also swiping more bags than ever. While not the fastest among the three players we are discussing, Crowe might be the most cognizant; his success rate is always among the highest.

Brett Gardner is the surprise of the season, vaulting himself from an afterthought in this discussion to a name we must consider. The Yankees have been more aggressive with him than the approach we've seen by the Red Sox or Indians; Gardner has been promoted to Double-A after a good half-season with Tampa. During that time, the College of Charleston outfielder hit .323, swiping 30 bags while walking 43 times. His only problems were the lack of extra-base hits, and a strikeout rate that he hasn't sniffed for years. Still, given his successful time in Tampa, Gardner has a claim to be the Yankees 3rd prospect.

CONCLUSIONS

In terms of ceiling, and upon further inspection, there is little question which prospect reigns supreme: Crowe. His substantial power edge, intelligent baserunning and enhanced patience leave an extremely intriguing product. while his contact skills grade out as the group's worst, his combination of line drives and quick feet should give him high enough annual BABIP numbers to offset his swing-and-miss disadvantage.

Conversely, Ellsbury is the contact hitter of the group. His 12.1 K% is fantastic, and down the road, should yield even higher batting averages than Ellsbury is even showing. The power has been the question mark with Ellsbury, no longer going extra bases with a wooden bat. This is a trait that is hard to project being a plus at this point, limiting Ellsbury to a leadoff role down the line. If he fails in leadoff, there is no real backdrop.

However, ranking prospects is about comparing a prospect's upside with the likelihood he reaches it. Where Ellsbury falls short in terms of ceiling, he may be the group's surest thing. One statement that I'm confident in making is that Brett Gardner is the largest question mark. This is no particular damnation of Gardner, he's up against two good bets.

My reasoning for saying this is that in terms of contact rates, Crowe and Gardner are toss-ups for who is worst. Both striking out at 21-22% rates this season, I mentioned Crowe as the worst contact hitter because he showed a higher aptitude for whiffs in most of college. Most, except a freshman season in which Gardner struck out 50 times. Plus, while Crowe leans back on his power as a trade-off, Gardner remains nothing more than a gap-power hitter.

Because of low power totals, it's difficult to project Ellsbury or Gardner hitting anywhere but atop an order. In comparing their skill sets, I have Ellsbury as the player more likely to hit for average (this season's difference be damned), while Gardner should make up for that with higher walk rates. Similar players both on the bases and in the field, it all comes down to a question of power. And for every season except their sophomore year, Ellsbury has showed more power than Gardner. Narrowly, he's the better prospect.

For the last four seasons, three prospects with one profile have been among high profile baseball circles. This season, as they enter prospect rankings, we know pretty much what most draft boards did a year ago (and recruiters years before that): Crowe, Ellsbury, Gardner.

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Pitching dominated the discussion surrounding the 2006 draft, as a record was almost broken with the number of pitchers selected in the first round. On Tuesday, we noted that position players will be back in style on the college ranks next year.

Today, I'm here to say we won't have to compromise simultaneously and see a letdown in the arms category.

A year before the draft, I noted Andrew Miller as a top guy, mentioning the worst teams were in the 'AM race.' A big lefthander with a long profile, Miller had control issues but the ability to strike out players in bunches. Experience and projectablity don't mesh often. They did in 2006, and they will in 2007.

While I'm no longer as confident as I was in April, David Price is right in the mix to be named the top pick in a year. A Vanderbilt lefthander, Price was a highly thought of prep arm, and went on to strike out 92 in 69 innings his freshman season. Early season dominance wore Price out as the year went on, but his season ending marks -- 3.81 ERA, 84 H/104 IP, 147 K/38 BB -- still were good enough to be named a Golden Spikes finalist.

Expect Price to gain more consideration for the award next season, as he'll surely spend the summer and fall working on endurance. If he makes strides in that category like he did control a year ago, Price should be the favorite to go 1-1. However, he faces worthy opponents in (high schoolers) Mike Main and Robert Stock, as well as (top collegiate position player) Matt Wieters.

Like Wieters, Price doesn't face a lot of competition for the king of the collegiate pitching mountain. However, there are a host of arms that will belong in the first round. Fellow hard-throwing SEC southpaw Nick Schmidt might be the best of the second tier, and his sophomore season was better than Price's in the same environment. In 108.2 innings, Schmidt struck out 135 while allowing just 80 hits. His breaking pitch is fantastic; his control (48 walks) is not.

Control is Wes Roemer's strength, and while he won't go in the top ten, Roemer went a far way in assuring himself a place in the first round this spring. A worthy candidate for the Player of the Year award, Roemer's 145/7 K-BB rate never fails to look like a misprint. His stuff isn't great, and his inning totals are high, but when working in the low 90s with a good slider (which he does often), Roemer is undoubtedly worthy of a top 30 selection.

Also pitching for a big program on Friday nights, I am a big fan of Sean Morgan, the righthander at Tulane. Home run prone, Morgan's 3.51 ERA is scary, especially considering the ballpark that Tulane played in this season. However, he has the strikeouts (125) and control (39 walks) to merit being in the discussion. Morgan will have to minimize the extra-base hits he allows next season, his slugging against (.370 in 2006) will go a long way in determining his draft position.

Expect the number of two-way players drafted as pitchers drafted in the first round to double between 2006 and 2007; for one Brad Lincoln, next year's class offers Sean Doolittle (Virginia) and Joe Savery (Rice). Oh, and unlike Lincoln, these two are southpaws. I'm far higher on Doolittle, his sub-2.00 ERA and amazing set of peripherals speaks volumes to his talent, big pitching park be damned. Expect him to lead Team USA this summer.

I'm a bit more wary of Savery, who had shoulder tendinitis minimize his innings total this season. Even when healthy in the postseason, Rice rarely turned to Savery - a bad indicator. As is his status as a pitcher for the Rice program, so take his 129 Freshman strikeouts with a grain of salt. Savery's potential should allow him to go top 15 (possibly top five), but he'll come with as many caveats as anyone.

On Tuesday, we talked about the lack of shortstops in the '06 draft. From a pitching standpoint, the draft also lacked closers, the growing trend that didn't really offer a first round talent this season. That will change next year, as Josh Fields is great in that role for Georgia. Teams will love his walk rate (11 BB in 50 IP), his strikeouts (56), and his miniscule slugging against (.257). Barring injury, he'll go in the first round next year.

In the northern Midwest, a pair of arms had lackluster seasons after dynamite freshman campaigns, and remain on the watch list. John Ely was just OK at Miami of Ohio, but the lefthander did allow 76 hits in 75.2 innings en route to a 3.57 ERA. He is one to watch, as is Ben Snyder from Ball State. Yes, his 4.45 ERA is ugly, but Snyder showed what he could do in regionals, beating top seeded Kentucky by allowing just one earned run in 8 innings.

Last for potential first rounders, I want to mention a guy that could be next season's Jeff Samardzija. While NC State righthander Andrew Brackman has stayed away from the football field, the 6-10 pitcher is a good frontcourt player for the Wolfpack. Unprepared for his sophomore season on the mound thanks to basketball, Brackman posted a 6.35 ERA in 28.1 innings before shutting it down. If he's smart, Brackman will realize where he has the most potential (baseball), and stick with it.

Finally, we should expect that summer performances will help pitcher's stocks next June, so I wanted to finish with a few potential Cape Cod League stars. Remember, without their summer in the Cape, guys like Brandon Morrow or Dave Huff would have not been so highly thought of.

The name I've been most outwardly floating around to people is Connor Graham, a righthander from Miami of Ohio. Graham is big (6-7, 240), and inconsistent, but could thrive in the closer's role this summer. He let his first run of the season this week, so don't expect a Craig Hansen summer. But do expect two Redhawks to be battling for draft position in 2007.

Another arm to look out for, though one I know less about, is Texas A&M righthander Chance Corgan (Update: Corgan transferred to TCU on May 31). Expected to be in the weekend rotation this spring, Corgan didn't get a ton of innings for the Aggies. In two starts out east, Corgan is making up for lost time, taking the league lead in strikeouts (19 - which he has since lost) in two scoreless starts spanning 14.1 innings. A big 2007 spring in the MWC could push Corgan way up draft boards.

This year's draft saw Steven Wright be taken high after a great summer closing at the Cape, and a good spring starting for Hawaii. Many believe the Wright they saw in short outings represents his future, despite his spring. Two potential arms that could face the same comments are Dan McDonald (Seton Hall) and Sam Demel (TCU). Demel has yet to allow a run in seven appearances (11 K in 7 IP), while McDonald has done him one better, not allowing a hit or walk in six scoreless innings (11 K).

Of course, these are just a few names that have been blips on a few radars this season. There will be a lot more examples of this during the summer, and I will try to stay abreast on each name that floats my way.

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Scouts were ready to turn the page. After spending a year preparing for one of the weakest draft classes in years, the page has been turned on the 2006 June Amateur Draft. With its exit go complaints about star power and depth; the 2007 draft offers both.

In fact, early returns on the 2007 draft promise one of the better classes in years, competing with 2004 and 2001 for the decade's best. The junior high school class had a fantastic season, and college sophomores around the country left their imprints in the minds of scouts.

As summer and showcase season gets underway, I wanted to allow you the first look at the offerings of the 2007 draft. Today, we'll look at the position players whose aluminum bats will be followed next spring, and Friday, we'll look at the class of pitchers.

Presently, Matt Wieters stands atop the college position player list, and is in the mix to be the first college player drafted with David Price. Both Georgia Tech's catcher and closer, Wieters showed with 5 postseason home runs that he was destined to swing the bat. Expect whichever team drafts him to project him as a hitter.

They will have a hard time, however, projecting a position. Currently a catcher, Wieters' arm would probably rank in the utmost tier of baseball at the Major League level. Given a top-flight career as a hurler, he also should call games and handle pitchers well. So what's the problem? Height.

The tallest catcher in Major League history was Larry McLean, standing 6-5. In 2004, Joe Sheehan wrote an article showing the problems tall catchers have faced at the big league level. Sandy Alomar Jr. is the perfect example. If Wieters was to make the Majors as a catcher, and assuming his listed height is the truth, he would pass McLean to top the list. When you're talking about multi-million dollar bonuses, biases can scare teams off, ask Tim Lincecum.

Plain and simple, Wieters offers the best bat in the 2007 draft class. But to draft him in the top five, a team would have to ask themselves whether such a high pick should be used on a future first baseman. While Wieters might make the Majors as a catcher, it's doubtful he would last too long there.

Catching feasibility is a problem with another projected first rounder, Tennessee's J.P. Arencibia. The switch hitter started his ascension up draft lists as a catcher, when he was one of the Vols' best bats in their Luke Hochevar-powered College World Series run. While success in Knoxville has stalled since the exit of Hochevar, Iorg and Headley, Arencibia remains a highly thought of prospect.

While Arencibia could stand to be more patient at the plate, his power projects well at the big league level. His defense, however, does not. Arencibia lacks athleticism; his mobility behind the plate is greatly in question. Teams will still take him as a catcher with the pipe dream that he will last there, but to do so, he'll have to hit like Victor Martinez. Because he won't field much better.

Seeing as though Evan Longoria and Bill Rowell both should end up at the hot corner, the lack of shortstops in the 2006 draft was unprecedented. The most important position on the defensive spectrum was completely unaccounted for. That will change next year, as currently three college shortstops project as first rounders: Todd Frazier (Rutgers), Josh Horton (UNC) and Zack Cozart (Mississippi).

Cozart is the best shortstop in the group, a well-skilled player defensively that won't have to think about changing positions. At the plate there are some questions, and they start with Cozart's inability to draw a walk. However, his contact rates are the best in the group, and he hit for more power than Horton did on the year. Add enough quickness to steal a base, and he seems a top 15 pick.

The title for best hitter is one to be wrestled over, depending on who you talk to. I think the choice is Frazier, who has superior statistics despite playing in a conference (Big East) that is far from the ACC's caliber. Still, Frazier is a very disciplined hitter who shows the most power of the group. His strikeout rates indicate he might be the worst hitter-for-average, but if he can stay at short (and he should, though third base is possible), his power will make up for it and then some.

Horton is very interesting, a player that should make for a safe choice in some respects, a risky one in others. At the plate, Horton is fantastic, he has a beautiful left-handed stroke that allowed him to hit .400+ in the regular season. He is a patient hitter, and very intelligent on the basepaths. His pop will play in the middle infield. The question, however, is whether his glove will. Horton made 23 errors on the season; he's as mistake-prone as they come. But the athleticism is there, undoubtedly, leaving some to think he could stick. My guess? Second base, where the bat still profiles as above average.

While it's likely that more players will rise to the level in the next year, I feel comfortable proclaiming only two more hitters as 2007 first rounders: Corey Brown (Oklahoma State) and Beau Mills (Fresno State). Both have fantastic bats; two of the best power hitters available.

Brown had a scholarship offer rescinded from Virginia after his senior season in which he pleaded guilty to felony battery. The incident stemmed from a sexual encounter with an underage girl. Questions about this incident will follow Brown around during his junior season, as scouts will be forced to answer whether his head is in the right place for seven figures. Mills will also have to answer those questions, though his problems are in the classroom, not the police blotter. FSU's best hitter in 2006, Mills was suspended for the postseason after failing to meet academic standards.

On the field, both are very gifted players. Brown is the best five tool player that college baseball will offer in 2007, a center fielder that had 30 extra-base hits and 14 stolen bases in 2006. He walks and strikes out at insane rates, passing 40 in both categories on the season.

Mills, a third baseman, is the most powerful hitter in the draft. In just 200 at-bats, Mills had 35 extra-base hits on the season, and could very well project to hit 30 HR annually in the pros. His contact rate is fine (31 K), but questions about his patience (just 17 BB) and athleticism will be his only deterrent.

Finally, I want to finish today talking about one player that I think belongs in the mix for the first round, though his actual status is up in the air. Damon Sublett, of Wichita State, won the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year award, despite missing two months with a broken hand. Why? Well, his two-way numbers are about as good as it gets.

In two years at Wichita State, Sublett has yet to allow a run on the mound. He is the Shockers' periodic closer, and his K/9 rate is above 15. However, his stuff is just a tick above average as a pitcher, so it appears that he will end up drafted as a hitter. Oh yeah, his numbers there are pretty good, too.

In just 165 at-bats on the season, Sublett had 20 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. He walked 31 times, and stole 12 bases while playing second base. The only question is Sublett's ability to make contact, as he whiffed 34 times on the season. However, given his awesome performance in every other column, this shouldn't hold Sublett back.

It also makes little sense to keep Sublett at second, given an arm that has done such damage off the college mound. The team that drafts Sublett has a player who has the athleticism to play either shortstop or center in the Majors, which helps his value even more. Sublett belongs in the first round, and with a healthy season in 2007, expect him to get there.

Sleeper: Sergio Miranda, Virginia Commonwealth. Another shortstop in a loaded class, Miranda hit .400 this season while named the Colonial American Association's defensive player of the year. Miranda has shown good contact abilties at VCU, and has continued to do so in his first few games in the Cape Cod League, not striking out through his first seven games. However, Miranda will have to prove he has (at least) gap power to get drafted highly.

Deep Sleeper: Curt Smith (Maine). I saw Smith play at the Chapel Hill regional a few weeks ago, and I came away very impressed. A shortstop from Curacao, Smith's body type envokes instant comparisons to Deivi Cruz. His play supports it, and I think he could have a similar career under the right scenario. He won't go highly in the 2007 draft, I don't think, but I'll support the pick wherever he ends up.

Those to look out for: Danny Payne (GTech), Matt Rizzotti (Manhattan), Chad Flack (UNC), Warren McFadden (Tulane), Taylor Harbin (Clemson), Michael Taylor (Stanford), Andrew Romine (ASU), Ryan Wehrle (Nebraska), Kellen Kulbacki (James Madison), Brian Friday (Rice).

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"The Chicago Cubs have traded the 13th pick in the 2006 Major League draft to the Boston Red Sox, in addition to their fifth round selection for the Red Sox 28th and 44th overall picks. With the 13th pick in the 2006 draft, the Red Sox select Daniel Bard, a righthander from the University of North Carolina."

In a perfect world, Bud Selig would have stepped up to ESPN's microphone in New York with those words on June 6. The Cubs would have then gone on to take Jeff Samardzija with the 28th pick, and Tyler Colvin in the 44th slot. Boston, at 27, would have still landed their man, Jason Place.

And you know what? No pundit would have complained.

Thanks to a series of questionable free agent signings the previous winter, the Cubs entered their first Tim Wilken-led draft without a second, third or fourth round selection. The Cubs were staring right at one talented player, and then waiting 136 to start shooting darts at fringe picks.

It is then, you can bet, that Wilken analyzed the market. He realized the player he liked in the first round - assuming certain players didn't fall - would slip: there had been eight million dollar associations with his name. As the draft neared, Wilken realized the player his eyes had fallen in love would be around at 149.

Suddenly, thanks to baseball's lackluster slotting system, the Cubs were eyeing two perceived talents instead of one. Budget concerns would limit Wilken in the 13-hole; he would have to pick a player willing to sign for "slot." The Cubs had set aside quite a bit of money for the fifth round; they couldn't afford top dollar at 13.

As far as slot players, Wilken had a favorite, too. Maybe it's true - that even if money wasn't an issue, Tyler Colvin would have been the Cubs man. But, ignoring that, it's fairly obvious (in hindsight) that a belief in Jeff Samardzija triggered the selection of Colvin. Wilken saw the market, planned for it, and in return, got his men.

The public has torn apart the Cubs draft, both the philosophy behind it as well as the individual players. After recently reading enough to reach my boiling point, I wanted to make one fact clear: criticizing a draft before any player takes the field is laughable. Doing so is to disrespect trained professionals. Scouts know far more in the days before, during and after draft day than writers could ever aspire to.

If a scout takes a player higher than expected, intelligent criticism is usually lacking. A journalist's job, in this situation, should be instead to search for the reason the scout fell more in love with the player than his peers. In a recent article at Baseball America, we find out a snippet of what attracted the Cubs to Samardzija:

Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken indicated the Cubs and Orioles both saw Samardzija at his best in an outing during the Big East Conference tournament. Wilken said Samardzija repeatedly pumped his fastball into the 97-99 mph range, up significantly from the regular season, when he sat in the 91-94 mph range. Samardzija showed a much better slider in that outing, using a higher arm slot to stay on top of the pitch better.

Those that criticize the Samardzija signing likely didn't see Jeff that day. If they did, it was likely without the Stalker radar readings the Cubs had access to.

Frustration about the draft needs to be properly channeled - to those in charge of the process. The way in which the draft is currently run, without any real foresight, is ludicrous. Not only has baseball prolonged an opportunity at a successful venture, but they have made success less likely by creating a poor product. The intrigue of a good draft is in the trades, in the order of the players go ... arranged by talent. Baseball offers no trades, and the draft order is sometimes as dependent upon bonus demands as talent.

Until we see changes -- which might be forced to wait until a commissioner change -- than we cannot properly have a draft day grading system. The readers want it, but to do so would be foolish. In a battle of baseball wit, a scout beats a writer.

I do, however, believe that you can rate a draft as being good. In doing so, a writer should either applaud the philosophy behind the draft, or the selection of certain players due to personal experience. I recently praised the Washington Nationals draft, and have told some I think it's the best draft in the Majors. Am I a big believer in Chris Marrero, Colten Willems or Sean Black? No, not especially. But for the Nats, a team yet to find an identity, a rebuilding process is essential. Spending four picks on players that were considered top round talent, even when calculating their risks, is a smart way to approach the draft.

So they get credit from me. I also loved the Boston Red Sox draft, but for a different reason. I had been present to watch Daniel Bard in his regional start, and afterwards, I believed. Bard threw in the mid 90s with ease that I didn't see in many young pitchers, and his breaking pitch was close. I was bound to like the draft of whoever selected him. When the Red Sox added Masterson, their "grade" was sealed in my eyes. I also believed in Kent Bonham's analysis on this site, and that analysis makes Masterson's case so clear.

Those are two examples of being supportive towards draft classes. In neither case did I disagree with a scouting director, a professional of infinite more training and resources. Clapping your hands at a golf course is acceptable, loudly booing is not.

For the record, I am not a Jeff Samardzija believer. While I understand the praises he draws for his body, athleticism and make-up, that isn't enough for me. I would argue his name has been built up through a football forum, and that besides a fastball that lights up radar guns, he offers little else on the field. And I didn't rank Tyler Colvin in my draft day top 40. Part of it was probably oversight, but there is very little about the outfielder that jumps out at you. Nothing, definitively nothing, screams first rounder.

But, it just doesn't make sense to bash the Cubs draft. Even if you don't believe, Tim Wilken and his staff does. Wilken is among the most respected directors in the business, as much a part of the Blue Jays success this season as any non-player around the team. I don't see Samardzija and think $7.25 million is a sensible number, but under what authority do I have to criticize Wilken? Question the organization, fine, but don't condemn them.

Until baseball makes changes at the top, we can't sufficiently give teams post-draft grades. Simple. I think we can opine who made out the best, but without trades and a more sensible slotting system, we can't pick out the worst.

Scouts have done more for the game of baseball than any other profession. Behind every player is a scouting story, a believer that wasn't surprised the day they reached the Major Leagues. I can rest in my armchair and praise the Giants for grabbing Lance Salsgiver in the 39th round -- I mean, he hit well in the Cape! -- but is it logical to bash 29 other teams for not taking him in the 38th?

Tim Wilken (and co.) made a draft day gamble that Samardzija and Colvin (and trust me, in that order) represent first and second round value. We can disagree, but at some point, you have to respect that they believe enough to back their bet with more than eight million dollars.

It's more likely than not that Jeff Samardzija never lives up to his $7.25 million billing. That the Cubs hear a lot of "I told you so"s for his draft. Until Jim Hendry has the option to trade down, or we have numerical evidence to support it, we simply can't fault his staff for taking the guys they believe in right now.

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With each box score and every game, the search continues. The next breakout prospect. We try to look under every rock to find them, with some analyzing nearly every prospect en route to saying, "I knew about this guy first."

While that search drives prospect mavens, I'm not sure we spend enough time on the opposite. Each season, dozens of prospects take giant steps back. Failure is the name of minor league baseball; most prospects never see time in the Majors. So rather than address those players moving backwards, we discard them for the flavor of the week.

I don't have scouting information on these guys, so I couldn't tell you the exact cause for 2006 concern. But after scouring through league statistics, and beginning to rework my top 75 for the midseason ranking, here are 8 guys in danger of slipping:

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C - Atlanta Braves: .210/.319/.320.

We didn't see this coming. Saltalamacchia flew up prospect lists last season when he showed a good amount of hitting in one of the minors' most difficult hitters parks. Myrtle Beach is hellish on bats, and while AA Mississippi is no cake walk, we should have been seeing improvements upon 2005 numbers, not this giant step back. The word has continued to be that Jarrod has altered his focus to defense this season, but it would be unfortunate if this came at the expense of his bat.

Brian McCann is very well thought of in Atlanta, and their slew of young catching was always considered a good problem. Because, at worst, if one of the players didn't make it, another player would be on the horizon. McCann seems to have made it in Atlanta, while Salty seems clueless in AA. He could turn things around with a good second half and a big 2007, but he didn't capitalize upon his opportunity to become a top ten prospect and push past McCann.

Thomas Diamond, SP - Texas Rangers: 4.19 ERA, 81 K / 45 BB.

In actuality, Diamond's numbers are not that bad this season. His prospect status is not in the toilet, his Major League hopes are still strong. But they aren't unchanged. After his dominant run through the Cal League in 2005, harder times were met in Frisco. The reason: increased walks, to the tune of a 4.96 BB/9, the highest of his career. Until now. After walking just 44 players in his first three stops, spanning nearly 130 innings, Diamond has 45 walks in 66.2 innings this season. His current 6.08 BB/9 matches the number he put up as a freshman at New Orleans.

Diamond has continued to show good stuff, not allowing very many hits and still maintaining a good strike out rate. But with his pitcher's body, we used to project a future innings eater with ease. However, in a season where pitching prospects are graduating to the Majors at huge rates, Diamond has been unable to capitalize and become one of the better prospects left. Instead, he's made us wonder: are we looking at a future reliever?

Eric Duncan, 1B - New York Yankees: .209/.279/.255.

Note the numbers listed above is just Duncan's performance in AAA, where he spent the beginning of the season before a demotion two weeks ago. Back in AA, Duncan is still relatively young for the league, but he has seen Eastern League pitching a time or two. Duncan has not had a very good season in 2 years, but salvaged his prospect status last season with a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. There are different theories as to why he hit so well there, but with this season, that should all be forgotten.

The most disconcerting of Duncan's numbers this year is his Isolated Power, which wasn't even .050 in more than 100 at-bats in Columbus. We worry that Delmon Young hasn't really shown any power in 2006, but what about Duncan? While he has hit two home runs and four doubles since being demoted, where were the hard hit balls in Columbus? Always a prospect whose stock was actively watched by those on the trade market, expect other organizations to pass on Duncan this season.

Garrett Mock, SP - Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.92 ERA, 79 K / 34 BB.

Mock represents one of the stones that I turned in the search for breakout prospects; regrettably, he was on my preseason breakout list. One of the Cal League's most prolific strikeout arms last season, Mock's numbers were depleted by horrible hit rates that I opined was caused by his .334 BABIP. While some of that may be true, it is now clearer that Mock is just pretty darn hittable, as his H/9 is approaching 10 again this season. Excuses can be made in California, but if we consider AA to be the litmus test, Mock has failed thus far.

Also lending to some problems this season are some new found control problems. Mock's 34 walks this season are one more than his total from last season, over 174.1 innings. I liked Garrett because if the BABIP rate ever went his way, it seemed as if all the other pieces were in place. Good control, the ability to strike guys out and consume innings. But when one of those disappears, and Mock continues to be hit, his prospect status fades. The Diamondbacks newfound pitching focus could very well leave Mock in the dust.

Wes Bankston, 1B - Tampa Bay Devil Rays: .295/.342/.429.

Surely, I will get hate mail for making this my Devil Ray selection. However, I just don't see that Delmon Young or Elijah Dukes has a depleted prospect status. Dukes, in fact, was really rising up my list before his latest suspension. And Young just hasn't been able to play baseball, until yesterday, so let's wait a little while before we give up on these guys for make-up issues. Instead, let's focus on the situation of Wes Bankston, who has not quite turned a corner in AA Montgomery.

Tampa didn't like that Bankston only offered the first base position for managers, so in Spring Training, the team thought to try him at the hot corner. While it looked, at times, like he might take to the position, the conversion overall didn't go so well. This is a first baseman. However, this season, he isn't showing the power or patience of one. While, granted, injuries have limited Bankston's productivity this season; we haven't seen enough promise of a future above-average corner player. Unfortunately for Bankston, his bat had been all he had left.

Chris Volstad, SP - Florida Marlins: 4.05 ERA, 65 K / 20 BB.

Before last season's draft, I watched all the video and heard the reports. I was convinced Volstad was the top prep pitcher in the draft, all 6-7 of him. But now, not even three months into the season, I'm not sure Mark Pawelek (not yet to throw a pitch) isn't the better prospect. Volstad doesn't even have top honors on his team, though the Greensboro rotation does rival the best low-A rotations ever. 'Polish' is an odd term in ranking prospects, and one that comes up often with players that have good control. Volstad, it will be said, has good polish.

But then why, I might ask, is Volstad not a polished-enough pitcher to prevent so many hits? Why are his strikeout numbers already in the toilet? The stuff is the same as it ever was, for the most part. But perhaps the fastball has straightened out, or his curve has not proven to be an out pitch. Whether it is Volstad's approach to hitters or his movement, big changes need to be made this winter. His cache of the first prep pitcher from the 2005 draft will lengthen his half-life, even if his peers go running past during that time.

Brad Harman, SS - Philadelphia Phillies: .237/.326/.310.

Another breakout selection, another misstep. After the World Baseball Classic, my opinion of Harman had reached an all-time high. I have no doubt that, had I revised my prospect rankings then, I would have found a place for him in the honorable mention. However, it seems like I really missed the boat with this kid. After leading the Australian team in hitting before they were ousted, Harman has been unable to hit in the Florida State League this season. Doing so is an uneasy task for a player with Harman's limited profile, but there really isn't much to pick from as positive here.

Harman has shown very little power, even of the gap variety, with just 13 extra=base hits this season. His 51 strikeouts are on their way to triple digits, lending to a batting average that has needed some recent success to climb from the Mendoza line. Defensive question marks continue to surround the Aussie. All that's left is a good walk rate, enough for a hope that his bat returns in the Eastern League. Harman is too young for his prospect status to be dead, but considering it was never very alive in world's outside of my brain, this season has really been a struggle.

Tyler Clippard, SP - New York Yankees: 5.16 ERA, 68 K / 28 BB.

Things have been a struggle for Clippard this season, his ERA higher than his hit rate suggests that it should be. The reason, as we have learned from the Hardball Times extensive coverage on the batted ball, is that EL hitters are likely hitting the ball very hard. We always knew that Clippard had a good curveball, a pitch that has always been enough to garner a good amount of strikeouts. We knew he always had good control, lending to positive walk rates for much of his career. Put those together, and many people thought you had the start of a pitching prospect.

But it's hard to be truly successful without a fastball. Clippard is a solid young pitcher, and his good control helps, but there just isn't enough juice on the fastball. It is going to, consistently, get hit hard. Add in the fact that a curveball-happy pitcher tends to hang a lot of pitches, and Clippard's future doesn't shine so bright. Like Duncan, you can bet Clippard won't be the most sought after Yankee prospect this July.

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Last weekend offered the finest college baseball has to offer. If the sport ever needs a selling point, last weekend may have been that.

No game better shows this than the second game of the UNC-Bama super regional. Freshman Tommy Hunter had shut down the Tar Heels for 7 innings, allowing just two runs and giving his club a 4-2 lead. He was over 90 pitches, nearing in on 100, and stupidly, he was left in the game. After allowing two baserunners, North Carolina first baseman Chad Flack hit a three run home run, ruining both Hunter's day and stat line.

But the Tide was not to be outdone, as they had their own heroics when down 6-4 in the ninth. With UNC closer Andrew Carignan in the game, who had previously allowed just one extra-base hit, the home team quickly got two baserunners on. And then freshman Alex Avila provided his own heroics, giving Bama a go-ahead home run in the most dramatic of ways.

Well, not quite the most dramatic. That honor belongs to Flack, who in the bottom of the ninth hit his second home run of the game, a two-run shot that walked the Heels off and into Omaha. Such a dramatic ending has not been seen on a mainstream stage in a long time; in fact, few endings rival that game's madness.

College baseball has a lot to offer, and drama might be at the top. Please readers, this weekend watch the College World Series, as it will provide as much intrigue in a couple days as the MLB playoffs will in a month. For those just entering collegiate baseball fandom, here's a quick primer of the team's involved...

Oregon State

Best Position Player: Cole Gillespie.

Best Pitcher: Jonah Nickerson.

Largest Strength: Top-heavy pitching staff. Arms rule in Omaha, and if that proves true, the Beavers are in a position to succeed. While I chose Nickerson as the Beavers' best arm, it's close, with Dallas Buck and Kevin Gunderson all close. Not only are all three good arms and battle-tested, but they have the experience of pitching in games of this kind; Oregon State is the lone team returning to Omaha after 2005.

Beyond the big three pitchers, the third starter (Gunderson is the closer), Mike Stutes is really good. As is the club's set-up man, Eddie Kunz. With these five pitchers, the Beavers will always be a danger to whomever they face. If they can advance to the championship series, these five become the reason they should be favored.

Largest weakness: Depth. Head coach Pat Casey deserves all the credit in the world for Oregon State's two year run, developing a program where people weren't sure it could be developed. This is no small feat. Because of this big turnaround and top-heavy team, Casey's recruiting has only been able to go so far. The five pitchers mentioned were much of the reason for the team's relatively low 3.43 team ERA, and pitched about 75% of the club's innings. Will five guys pitch the Beavers to victory?

In addition to this, we don't know if Oregon State has the bat's to contend. Their .130 ISO is the lowest of the eight teams, edging fellow West Coast club Cal State Fullerton. While Cole Gillespie had an award-winning season, what else is there to offer? Barney, Rowe and Canham are all good, but if that's all, you have to worry about this team's chances at hitting into a championship.

Miami

Best Position Player: Jemile Weeks.

Best Pitcher: Chris Perez.

Largest Strength: Momentum. Miami was not considered a team likely to advance to Omaha, and they enter as the largest underdogs. While the other 7 teams are in Boyd Nation's top 10 in ISR, Miami stands at 23. Since winning just one game in the ACC tournament, the Hurricanes have won five of their last 6, outscoring their opponents 59-28 during that stretch. If any team is happy to be here, it's Miami.

And that isn't to say they don't have the talent to be here. Their team batting average is third of the club's that advanced, and their .239 opponents' average against is nothing to laugh at. They basically stand in the middle of most of the categories, but at the top of none. Jon Jay, Weeks and Perez provide star power to a team that could make for the best storyline of the tournament.

Largest weakness: Starting pitching. The team knows who is getting the ball in the first inning in Omaha, they just don't know if they can trust them. The combination of Carlos Gutierrez, Manny Miguelez and Scott Maine made 53 starts this year, the rest of the team just 10. However, it isn't as if they particularly earned their spots, combining for a 4.44 ERA. Their jobs are easy: get the ball to Danny Gil and Chris Perez. Their ability to do so will dictate their success.

Georgia

Best Position Player: Joey Side.

Best Pitcher: Josh Fields.

Largest Strength: Umm ... perhaps hitting? While Miami is the biggest surprise in Omaha, Georgia might receive my vote for the least talented team. While they get points for a high team batting average, the club's .384 OBP is among the lowest in Omaha. Their .169 ISO is in the middle of the pack. More than anything else, Georgia has a middle of the order that is very dangerous, including Side and Josh Morris. Pitching around these two players will be essential for every club, as after that, Gordon Beckham (freshman) might be the only bat that can truly hurt you.

Georgia got through a good group to get here, so they do belong. I'm just not sure they'll contend.

Largest weakness: Pitching, pitching, pitching, by a long shot. This club has the worst ERA (4.76) and opponents' average (.277) left in the tournament, which doesn't bode well for a first round match-up with Rice. There are some good names at the top, notably Josh Fields and Rip Warren, two relievers primarily in the bullpen. Junior Brooks Brown gained some first round interest this June, but his collegiate results have been up and down. If he gets hot, his arm is in the mix too.

After that, however, things get ugly. The problem is the team will throw Brown against Rice in the opener, a game in which they are substantial (and deservedly) underdogs. After that, what will they have left in the tank for game two, presumably against Miami? Perhaps Warren gets the start, but if not, there is not a single exciting option on the team.

Rice

Best Position Player: Josh Rodriguez.

Best Pitcher: Eddie Degerman.

Largest Strength: Hard to pick, but it's the plethora of bats this team throws at you. Their .931 team OPS is the highest in Omaha, and choosing Rodriguez as the top hitter was no easy question. Beyond Rodriguez, the Owls also offer Brian Friday, Joe Savery, Aaron Luna and Greg Buchanan. Top to bottom the order is talented, and in the middle, it's damn near impossible to pitch to. This team hits, hits and hits all-day long, and they might do so to the championship.

Oh, and the pitching is pretty good, too. No two arms in the tournament have had better seasons statistically than Degerman and closer Cole St. Clair, who sports a .144 average against. A senior, expect Degerman's arm to get tested hard in this tournament, as he will pitch early and often. If you remember Jason Windsor's CWS workload, expect Degerman to get in the neighborhood in this tournament.

Largest weakness: Pitching depth? It's truly hard to find a flaw in this team, they have done so well all season long against a tough schedule. They win every weekend series. And while I chose the depth in the staff, other starters Craig Crow and Bobby Bell are really good, going 16-1 on the season. For me, the tournament's wild card is Joe Savery, sophomore two-way player that hasn't been thrown very often this season.

For a college that normally wears out top arms, it is strange that Savery only has 62 innings under his belt? The southpaw is superbly talented, but the Owls' reservations about his workload should make Rice fans wonder when he pitches in big situations.

North Carolina

Best Position Player: Josh Horton.

Best Pitcher: Andrew Miller.

Largest Strength: Dangerous starters. Everything out of Chapel Hill this spring has been about the Tar Heels' awesome trio of pitchers: Miller, Dan Bard and Robert Woodard. Miller won Baseball America's Player of the Year, and was the consensus top player available in the 2006 draft. His talents were on display last weekend against Alabama, proving that if Miller controls his fastball, North Carolina will win that game. Bard's inconsistency and Woodard's fringe stuff pose question marks, but both can pitch the Tar Heels to victory. If these three mesh at the right time, North Carolina could have an easy path.

Note that the team can also hit, as their .324 batting average is the best in Omaha. They have done so at a fantastic rate recently, scoring 62 runs in their five-game winning streak; 12.4 runs per game! The club is led by .400 hitter Josh Horton, but Chad Flack's amazing super regional performance has him coming in with the gold star. Those two, along with Jay Cox, create a lot of problems for opposing pitching staffs.

Largest weakness: Inconsistency. And a lot of it. The Tar Heels may be the team most prone to concentration lapses in Omaha; their 86 errors are good for second in the tournament. Horton is the culprit of 23 himself, and problems in the middle infield showed in Fayetteville. The staff also has problems with consistency, and Bard is a good example of that. In the second game of the super regional, head coach Mike Fox pulled the first round arm quickly, when it became apparent it wasn't one of his good days. None of those things can happen against teams like Fullerton or Clemson, so UNC must be on their best behavior.

Cal State Fullerton

Best Position Player: Blake Davis.

Best Pitcher: Wes Roemer.

Largest Strength: As opposed to North Carolina, Fullerton plays absolute mistake-free baseball. Their 54 team errors are the lowest in the tournament, and 28 less than the next lowest team on the left side of the bracket. They also don't walk people, handing out just 120 free passes on the season. Ace Wes Roemer leads the way with just 6 in 141.2 innings, but the club's top three starters combine for just 51. You have to beat them, they won't beat themselves.

In addition, the number of veterans on this club is astounding. Danny Dorn and Brett Pill might not make for great pro prospects, but with their experience, this team has good veteran leadership. Normally a discounted strength, these types of things play huge roles in Omaha.

Largest weakness: I worry about the offense this team will generate, especially when going against Andrew Miller and, potentially, Clemson's #2 option. They hit for a pretty high average, but there really isn't very much power to speak of. Furthermore, they don't walk very much, as their IsOD is the lowest in the tournament. Can this team really depend off three consecutive singles off Miller and guys like Jason Berken, Bard and the other good pitchers in the tournament? Without one guy with a double-digit home run total, this problem might become the focal point this weekend.

Georgia Tech

Best Position Player: Matt Wieters.

Best Pitcher: Umm? Matt Wieters? Nah, Lee Hyde?

Largest Strength: Wow, this team can hit. Just three teams in Omaha have .400 OBPs, and Tech's .420 is the highest. They are also one of just two teams with a .500 slugging, sitting at .501. There is a lot of terror in this lineup, with five players that hit 11 or more home runs. The group is led by two-way sophomore Wieters, the catcher/closer and the best at drawing walks and hitting the long ball. But if you pitch around Wieters, you meet a lot more bats, like redshirt senior Jeff Kindel, and juniors Wes Hodges and Whit Robbins. The amount of hitting this team can produce, and did produce against College of Charleston, is pretty astounding.

Largest weakness: Football scores should be the expectation in GTech games, as the defense and pitching is both atrocious. The club's 94 errors are an Omaha high, and their .275 average against is right up there with Georgia's. Blake Wood was an overdraft by the Royals in the recent draft, but then looked great in his super regional start. If he pitches as he's capable to do, as he showed in the Cape, Tech becomes a much better team. But outside of Wood, Hyde and Wieters, is there a single arm the Tech staff should be comfortable putting on the mound.

The answer, no, will be their downfall.

Clemson

Best Position Player: Tyler Colvin.

Best Pitcher: Stephen Faris.

Largest Strength: This club is very much like Oregon State, because they do everything pretty darn well, and in fact, better than the Beavers in all areas. Offensively, Colvin proved why he was a first round choice last weekend, hitting a walk-off grand slam. Colvin's ability to steal bases is one the whole team shares, their 101 stolen bases are an Omaha high, and they do so at better than an 80% clip. Other than Colvin, Andy D'Alessio is the most powerful player on the team, and Taylor Harbin is one of the more talented second basemen left in this tournament.

The pitchers are good too, led by three starters: Faris, Jason Berken, Josh Cribb. These players combined for 49 starts, but weren't overworked, with no one going over 100 innings. This is because the team offers a good bullpen to hand the ball to, led by closer Daniel Moskos.

Largest weakness: I'm going to pick on the staff, even though they don't deserve it. The Tigers have proven they can pitch with anyone this season, and their starters don't walk people, which is always a plus. But if ever there is a group of talent that rivals pro ball, it's in Omaha. And the Clemson staff just doesn't have a lot of high-profiling pro prospects; it wouldn't surprise me if they got hit. But I'm going to stop now, because I'm truly nitpicking. Really, there isn't a lot about this team that went wrong in 2006.

And now, for the predictions, which have not been going particularly well for me this tournament...

Right Side of the Bracket: Oregon State. Depth is a concern for me, but I wouldn't be shocked if they have just enough arms to win the tournament. If they beat Miami in the opener, you have to like their second pitcher over what Rice has to offer, and at 2-0, the Beavers would then be in the driver's seat. Rice is the easy pick, but I think the Beavers ride continues.

Left Side of the Bracket: North Carolina. The opening round match-up between Miller and Roemer is one of the best in recent Omaha history, and I believe the winner of this game wins this side of the bracket. I'm picking Miller and the hot North Carolina bats, who shouldn't be too fazed by Roemer's good-not-great stuff.

College World Series Champs: UNC. I picked them in the preseason, and they beat the team (Alabama) that I picked at the beginning of this tournament handily. A nice going out for Miller and Bard, a nice coming out for Horton and Flack.

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There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. With the recent graduation of one of the minors' top classes of phenoms in recent memory, a phrase normally left for hyperbole is becoming all-but-too literal.

This winter, prospect pundits made cases for their annual pick of baseball's best pitching prospect, selecting from a group of four: Francisco Liriano, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley and Justin Verlander. All had very good arguments; any choice was defensible.

In my rankings, which were in the very order listed above, I had four other pitchers joining the elite group to comprise a top tier: Jon Lester, Scott Olsen, Jon Papelbon and Joel Zumaya. Even the biggest skeptic could agree that there was such thing as a baseball prospect: there were eight of them.

When the season started, it became quickly obvious the list was missing one name, Cole Hamels. The lefthander proved healthy and dominant in the early going, erasing any previous concern and flying up prospect lists. Hamels' meteoric rise was capped with a call-up to the big leagues, gone before we could properly rank him.

If reports are correct, as of this Thursday, baseball's entire first tier of pitching prospects will have gone the way of Hamels. Jon Lester's Red Sox debut came last Saturday; Chad Billingsley is set to start tomorrow. Baseball may have never had such an accomplished group of graduated pitching prospects.

Unsurprisingly, as a whole, the 8-some is achieving huge Major League success. Jon Papelbon is the American League's best reliever, and Francisco Liriano its hottest starter. Joel Zumaya hit 102 mph on the gun this weekend, while teammate Justin Verlander has been in that velocity's neighborhood late into plenty of games.

This weekend, I received an e-mail with a simple question that, now, I can no longer answer. "Who is the best pitching prospect in the minors?" A week ago, I would have mindlessly answered Billingsley, who had been pitching well in one of the minor leagues' toughest parks for pitchers. Lester, I would have noted, a close second, bouncing back exceptionally from his third slow start in as many years.

Not only is it near impossible to peg a top arm name right now, it's quite difficult to even find a top tier. Players in this group should profile as All-Stars, top of the rotation arms or ace relievers. Scanning through the minor leagues, players that fit this category are few and far between.

So while I do believe a pitching-laden draft in 2006, and next year's loaded class will bring the minor league pitching back to its glory, there is no time to complain like the present. With that said, here is a list of the names that floated in my head for top dog, creating by default a (pitiful) top tier. In absolutely no particular order:

Rarely is a Major League ready prospect stuck in Triple-A an indictment of a franchise. Too often a good player finds himself blocked, with a good player or a big contract in his way. While these players become cornerstones to AAA franchises and minor league icons, we are left wondering about what they could do in the right situation.

For some reason, this year there seems to be an abundance of such circumstances, so today we will go exploring. Ladies and gentleman, jumping right into things, your Minor League All-Blocked Team:

First Base: Scott Thorman, Braves

I don't believe that Adam LaRoche is at the heart of the Atlanta Braves' problems. This year, Dave's son has provided the Braves with plenty of power, posting an Isolated Power of nearly .250. However, the power has come at the expense of his batting average, as his ISO is equivalent to his average. The reason? Poor contact skills, as LaRoche is striking out in more than 20% of his plate appearances.

Enter Thorman. While handing the everyday spot to him would be accepting some loss in terms of power (his ISO is only about .240 in AAA), it would help in the on-base percentage column. Thorman's reduced strikeout numbers would help get more batting average from the position, and while Thorman doesn't walk at LaRoche's rate, he does so at an acceptable pace; his OBP is .049 points higher than LaRoche's, albeit at a lower level.

Given his recent home run hot streak, which has helped double his home run rate over two weeks, the Braves would be best suited to try the flavor of the week. If that doesn't work, perhaps a trade would.

Second Base: Asdrubal Cabrera, Mariners

All right, all right, I know Cabrera isn't blocked yet. At .252/.341/.392, Cabrera has done little to prove he's ready for the Major Leagues. But he's 20, a defensive stallion, and right around the corner. The problem: the freakish .483 SLG emergence of Jose Lopez. Some people may have seen Lopez coming, but not me.

So with the Mariners' future middle infield already turning the double play in Seattle, Cabrera is left without a light at the end of his tunnel. Supremely talented, Cabrera has been unaffected by Seattle's desperate attempt to rush him in the last two seasons.

If anyone on this list deserves a midseason trade, it's Cabrera, one of baseball's best prospects a stat sheet has never heard of.

Shortstop: Jason Bartlett, Twins

.259/.305/.341. "Led" by Juan Castro, and his -6.2 VORP, this is the production Minnesota is receiving from the shortstop position. These numbers would be substantially lower if not for an odd, out-of-character season from Nick Punto, who is holding up the position's numbers in half the at-bats. The solution? Stick with the original plan.

The Twins weren't sure what they got in Jason Bartlett when they acquired him for Brian Buchanan, but like many of Terry Ryan's trades, it became quickly clear that Minnesota came out on the better end. Years later, that's still true, though the Twins have shown a vast reluctance to make Bartlett their full-time shortstop.

Currently 26, Bartlett is hitting .306/.328/.445 in Triple-A. Obviously, he isn't a star shortstop; he never walks and shows gap power at best. However, Bartlett represents a vast improvement over Castro and Punto. This is a point that pundits universally agree on, now it's the Twins turn.

Third Base: Josh Fields, White Sox

After his horrendous 2005 season, Josh Fields exited the prospect radar. At the age of 22, the athletic third baseman hit just .252/.341/.409 in the Southern League, striking out 142 times in the process. We assumed that Fields' power potential would never outweigh his inability to make contact. So far, so wrong.

This season, Fields has been other-worldly, hitting .343/.432/.599. Strikeouts? Still excessive, 63 in 207 at-bats, meaning the Sox prospect is sporting a .449 BABIP. So, we know that the numbers are coming down. But even when they reach a middle ground between last year and this season, Fields will be a worthy bargaining chip for a team dedicated to Joe Crede. The Oklahoma State quarterback offers fantastic power, a lot of patience, and tons of athleticism.

Even with the strikeouts, in the next nine months, some team will bite at Josh Fields. And, no matter how you slice it, any post-2005 impression is likely to be left in the dust.

Outfield: David Murphy, Red Sox; Chris Denorfia, Reds; Nelson Cruz, Brewers

Over the winter, I answered a few questions over at soxprospects.com. When asked about David Murphy, I returned this response:

I like Murphy a lot more than your average guy. In 2005, this is a player that struggled very, very badly out of the gate. So much so, in fact, that after 48 games he was hitting an abysmal .218/.278/.303, striking out in 24.2% of his at-bats. There was nothing to like. Then, however, something clicked in Murphy, as he finished the season hitting .304/.374/.495 the rest of the way, this time striking out just 13.5% of the time. Talk about a different player. The one I like to see is the second one, a centerfielder with good contact skills and solid pop with just enough speed and patience. However, David can't let slow starts continually bog him down. I like Murphy more than an Adam Stern or Bubba Crosby, and at worst, he should be a fourth outfielder in the Majors.

Murphy has continued his hot-hitting ways into this season, improving upon his AA numbers after a promotion to Pawtucket. The former Baylor outfielder has struck out just seven times in 16 Triple-A games, while hitting 11 extra-base hits. Theo Epstein's first round pick is starting to look a lot more like a late bloomer than a bust, fittingly months after the Red Sox committed their centerfield future to Coco Crisp. Hopefully, Murphy's hot start won't go unnoticed around the deadline.

Nelson Cruz is in the opposite situation. No, not just because he was a player I frowned upon, but also because the Brewers have a spot opening for him. With Carlos Lee's impending trade from the organization, the hot-hitting Cruz should see a promotion. However, right now, the big outfielder is ready and sizzling. Cruz is on pace for a 30-30 season, with 14 home runs and 13 steals through 61 games in Nashville. Cruz is the rare example of a guy on this list that could, if things break as expected, be awaiting a full-time position by season's end.

This is not true for Chris Denorfia, as unjust as things might be. With the Reds offseason dealing, a spot should have opened up for Denorfia, with Adam Dunn moving to first base. However, an infatuation with Scott Hatteberg unexpectedly arose, and Denorfia was again pushed back to Triple-A. He has thrived in Louisville, improving upon last year's performance, striking out just 20 times in 182 at-bats. Denorfia doesn't have fantastic upside, but he represents the type of all-around solid player that the Reds, or teams trading with them, should not value lightly.

Starting Pitchers: Abe Alvarez, Red Sox; Rich Hill, Cubs; Joe Saunders, Angels; Evan MacLane, Mets; Dana Eveland, Brewers

Notice a trend? This group of southpaws is not one known to light up radar guns (Eveland excluded), but each has discovered a road to AAA success. Hill has his curveball, Saunders keeps the ball down, Alvarez attacks hitters. Whatever the formula, is has worked; as a group, they have a 2.37 ERA in 289 AAA innings this season.

The other thing they have in common (MacLane exluded), is a series of failures in the Majors. As a foursome, in 118.2 Major League innings, 108 earned runs have crossed the plate. So, trust me, it's hard to make an argument that a group of (generally) crafty southpaws belong in a league in which they have proved inadequate.

Maybe the answer is obvious, and the group is simply the left side of a Quad-A All-Star team. Perhaps a journey through AAA, a la Les Walrond, awaits each. But I'm not giving up quite so easily.

Obviously, Rich Hill needs a change in scenery. Wrigley Field has been his nightmare, the home of too many walks and home runs. And though his trade value is depleted, lefthanders with his strikeout numbers and his curveball are a wanted commodity.

Alvarez and Saunders are another pair of likely trade candidates, due to a combination of depth and surroundings. Fenway Park is not the right stomping ground for a bulldog lefty, and with (when healthy) enough depth, the Red Sox could stand to lose Alvarez. Plenty of other clubs would improve upon adding him; if Jim Parque was on his way to forging a Major League career (pre-injury), there is a spot for Alvarez.

Salt Lake is a proven pitcher's nightmare, yet no one has bothered to tell Saunders. When keeping the ball down, he might be able to succeed anywhere. However, the Angels aren't able to allow him to do so in Los Angeles; keeping Jered Weaver in the five-man is problem enough. Saunders is well on the second-tier in one of the game's most loaded farm systems, allowing some team to jump at his low stock while they can.

As for the other two, Eveland and MacLane, I don't see any reason why their organization must change. Eveland has proven his rotund body is best suited for the rotation, not the bullpen role to which he was slated in 2005. While his five starts this season went to hell, Dana simply needs more chances in an organization with time to give it. As for MacLane, he isn't quite ready yet, just as the Mets rotation isn't ready for him. However, when the likes of Steve Trachsel and El Duque fade into the darkness, even with the presence of Alay Soler and Mike Pelfrey, there should be a back-end spot open for MacLane.

Again, I'm not predicting this group offers a single Cy Young, All-Star, or deserving innings-eater. But, given an insane amount of success in the minors' highest level, they represent five southpaws with potential success indicators. Somewhere, this should mean something.

Relief Pitcher: Pat Neshek, Twins

Aaron Gleeman recently put together a better argument for Neshek than I could. In that Gleeman piece you will see Neshek's delivery, which while unconventional, spells death for right-handed hitters. He comes at hitters from an odd angle and in the strike zone - control has never been a problem. His one caveat has always been the lefthanded hitter, or the home run, or best yet, a combination of the two: the lefthanded home run.

The Twins bullpen is not, particularly, a problem: Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon shutting things down late have led to an aggregate 3.54 ERA. However, every bullpen has its' Achilles, and for Minnesota, Jesse Crain is it. The former top relief prospect has been awful in the Majors, and probably deserved to follow fellow Cougar Ryan Wagner's path back to the minors. In his spot should come Neshek, who would need a bad case of dead arm to not improve upon the .395/.418/.592 line that RH hitters have lit Crain up for in 2006.

By protecting Neshek from the Rule 5 draft this winter, the Twins indicated they have a potential commodity in Neshek. Now, more than ever, is their time to cash in.

Yes, our All-Blocked team is without a catcher, but Mike Rivera didn't fit the bill and Ryan Garko's catching days are long gone. And not only is Carlos Marmol unblocked, but he's on the mound these days. As far as finding a universal solution goes, to harp on an annual Jim Callis theme, we must bring up the idea of prospect-for-prospect trading. So much uncertainty is unlikely to be traded, but that can't help us from dreaming (Thorman for Bartlett, Cabrera and friends for Elijah Dukes ... the possibilities are endless!).

However, if we are keeping dreams realistic, go to bed tonight with deadline deals involving the Murphys, Hills, and Nesheks of the world as players to be named later dancing in your head.

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If college baseball needs anything to truly succeed on a larger scale, it's: 1) Cinderella stories in their postseason tournament, 2) big stars to follow. While the latter is hard to come up with given baseball's current draft system, last weekend sure provided some good team stories.

Manhattan almost had their dream regional come true, as the Jaspers nearly won their regional after shutting down Nebraska in the opener. The Cornhuskers struggled in both of their games, exiting days after their stock to win it all had been going up. Nebraska joined multiple top seeds in the ugly weekend, namely the defending champion Texas Longhorns.

Texas lost their Saturday game to a red-hot Stanford team, and then were shocked the next morning with a late-game loss to the N.C. State Wolfpack. Top seeds Oklahoma State and Kentucky both saw smaller schools -- Oral Roberts and College of Charleston, respectively -- come to play against the big boys, dominating the weekend.

And as far as most exciting goes, we had a fantastic Pepperdine regional, as Missouri rebounded from a Friday loss to the Waves to win the regional. While it looks like the seeding committee didn't do their job with so many upsets, such is the nature of college baseball. This is why, if you're smart, you'll keep your eyes glued to the TV this weekend.

So after a dismal weekend on the prediction front last week, I'm back at it again, with your Super Regional preview.

Oklahoma at Rice

Offense should be on hand this weekend in Houston, as both squads averaged more than eight runs per game in 2006. The difference maker should be that, in addition to hitting well, Rice's pitching staff had just a 3.02 ERA this season. Cross your fingers that we have an all-senior pitching match on one day, as Rice's Eddie Degerman and OU's Daniel McCutchen are an interesting pair. Degerman's odd delivery wins out in the battle, as does the whole Rice pitching staff, right down to closer Cole St. Clair.

He might not be a secret, but watch out for Joe Savery as the Owls' weapon this weekend. The future 2007 first rounder is great at the plate and on the mound, and Savery could spell the Sooners' demise this weekend. While I may have said differently last week, until Rice shows signs of weakness, it's pretty difficult to pick against them.

Pick: Rice.

South Carolina at Georgia

One player I missed talking about in my draft review was Joey Side, one of the sixth round's best finds. Side was fantastic in the Bulldogs regional, hitting a home run in every big opportunity. The weekend pushed his OPS north of 1.000, and I should also mention that Side is a good defensive center fielder. Watch out for Side this weekend, who is just one of three Georgia double-digit home run hitters, along with freshman SS Gordon Beckham and first baseman Josh Morris (23 jacks!).

The Georgia offense is a deadly weapon, but the Gamecocks can hit as well. Senior outfielder Michael Campbell puts constant pressure on the defense with a fantastic contact rate, and freshman Justin Smoak does nothing but hit the ball far. Smoak is just one of a few freshman on the team, which could play a role this weekend.

The winner of the Brooks Brown-Mike Cisco match could very well determine this series, but in the end, I'll go with the club that offers the most pitching depth - SC.

Pick: South Carolina.

Miami at Mississippi

Inspired by Bill Simmons, I can hear the promotions for this series already. "Coghlan! Jay! It's Miami and Ole Miss! The Super Regional, only on ESPN U!" The two juniors are the big names of this series, but underclassmen middle infielders - freshman 2B Jemile Weeks for Miami and sophomore SS Zack Cozart for Miss - might have the bigger impact on the weekend.

In the end, I like the advantage that Miss has in the power and bullpen departments. While Chris Perez is as dangerous a player as there is in this series, the Rebels bullpen goes five players deep. If any of Mississippi's freshman starters struggle, look for the bullpen to stymie the Hurricanes.

Pick: Mississippi.

Stanford at Oregon State

On paper, this series isn't close. Oregon State is nearly a point better than the Cardinal in ERA, and .060 points better in OPS. But while we were all anticipating an OSU-Texas Super Regional, Stanford decided to play its best baseball of the season last weekend. At its best, Stanford is a deadly team, anchored of course by second overall choice Greg Reynolds. However, this team simply doesn't have enough power and enough pitching to win.

Oregon State, at least, has the pitching. While Dallas Buck is no longer the pro prospect he once was, the junior has the pitchability to beat a lot of guys. Behind him on the staff, famously, are Jonah Nickerson and Kevin Gunderson, two top-ten round players. Oregon State is a tough team to beat at home, and led by Cole Gillespie, the Beavers will be making a return trip to Omaha at weekend's end.

Pick: Oregon State.

Oral Roberts at Clemson

I admit we didn't give Oral Roberts enough attention last week. The Golden Eagles then went out and played great baseball, led by an offense that is, on paper, better than Clemson's. Andy Bouchie is as good a hitter as we will see in this series, so look for Clemson to avoid him whenever possible. Letting Bouchie beat you would be stupid. But, if anything, Clemson has the pitching staff to beat him. Few rotations have been as productive as Faris, Berken and Cribb, and the bullpen can handle any pressure situation.

The Clemson offense is also dangerous, led by surprise first round pick Tyler Colvin. While most scouts may have thought of Colvin as a second- or third-rounder, he's a great college threat with power and fantastic baserunning instincts. The whole Clemson team is well coached on the basepaths, stealing about 1.5 bags per game at a better-than-80% clip. Clemson cruises.

Pick: Clemson.

College of Charleston at Georgia Tech

My prediction, not-so-bold, is that sophomore Matt Wieters will have the largest role in this series. Wieters is a fantastic player, a potential top ten pick next June, that doubles as a catcher (1.072 OPS) and reliever (2.67 ERA). But while we knew his bat and arm would both have influences, its his arm behind the plate that may define his series. If College of Charleston does anything well, it's swipe bases, going 124-for-158 on the bases this season.

While Tech's offense offers power, with five guys in double figures, Charleston will play small ball, offering the better team average and five double-digit SB runners. If the series comes down to pitching, Charleston has the advantage, especially with Nick Chigges (11-1, 1.32) on board. The club may not have faced the best talent this season, but Charleston is ready to make their move to Omaha.

Pick: College of Charleston.

Missouri at Cal State Fullerton

My predictions didn't go great last week, but if I take anything from the article, it's the Missouri-to-win prediction. The club was obviously the best fourth seed in the tournament, and they overcame a loss in Max Scherzer's start to win the regional. Kudos to coach Tim Jamieson, back-to-back complete games, and Nate Culp, the junior southpaw that pitched on Saturday and Monday. The Tigers have the arms, but perhaps not the bats, to move on.

However, Fullerton will take their arms against anyone. Cal State had just one guy over 6 home runs on the season, and a team slugging percentage of just .445. But their pitching staff has a 2.62 ERA, thanks to just 119 walks in 532 innings. Friday starter Wes Roemer was responsible for just 6 of those in 133.2 innings, and gives the Titans a decent chance to beat Scherzer.

I'd like to pick Missouri as my continued sleeper, and I'm not a huge CSUF believer, but the top seed gets it done here.

Pick: Cal State Fullerton.

North Carolina at Alabama

We end with the weekend's most exciting regional. While the Tide would be favorites in Vegas, the super regional host, it sure doesn't seem like that coming into the weekend. All people can talk about are the arms in North Carolina, and they do have them, led by (obviously) Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard. In the bullpen, watch out for Jonathan Hovis and Andrew Carignan. Quite a group.

Alabama has some good arms themselves, but the problem is, they have less experience. Tommy Hunter has first round upside, but his start should come against Bard, the more experienced pitcher. However, 'Bama gets more consistent hitting, as UNC's powerful showing in their regional was not indicative of the season they had with the bat.

Alabama was my pick to win it all a week ago, and while I had first-hand good impressions of North Carolina last week, things won't change yet.

Pick: Alabama.

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There is more than one way to eat a Reese's, and more than one way to analyze a draft. In the coming days, I will do my best to provide as many options as I can.

In the coming days I will have a general review at SI.com, and next week, we'll start to go through the draft lists team-by-team. Today, however, I wanted to look at some of the players that were overshadowed by the big names and dramatic stories.

The top of the draft went down in crazy fashion yesterday, with the Rockies and Mariners making a pair of pretty silly choices to mix things up early. The round provided so much intrigue, but all the players were familiar names, just arranged in a different fashion. An organization's ability to go deep in a draft, to make value choices as the days go on, determines who had the best draft.

In that light, I want to spend today looking at my favorite value pick from each round. With guys dropping and reaches happening all over the place, these are twelve names I found refreshing when perusing the draft lists. We'll start our way at the top, with the familiar Eddie Bane, and end with the Yankees fantastic middle round drafting, led by Damon Oppenheimer. More to come...

Round One: Hank Conger, c, Los Angeles Angels

In most mock drafts, Conger was off the board at this choice. While I gave both Bryan Morris and Daniel Bard consideration for this space, Eddie Bane picked Conger over the two pitchers. Oh, to have been in the war room for that argument! Anyway, in a recent chat, Baseball America's John Manuel predicted Conger would be the draft's best player in five years. Conger plays the game's most premium position, and offers serious power and the ability to switch hit. The Angels didn't splash often in this draft, drawing my interest just one more time, so this was a big pick.

Supplemental First: Dave Huff, lhp, Cleveland Indians

It was important for the Indians to get a good player in this spot, their first pick of the draft. In the end, Huff got the nod over Joba Chamberlain, due to the Huskers' injury concerns. Huff's pitch count suggests he also might have future injuries, but this late in the draft, he is worth the risk. Everyone has now heard the Barry Zito comparisons, while Huff offers a plus change instead of that knee-buckling curve. He'll rise quickly in a system with a lot of southpaws (Sabathia, Lee, Sowers, Lofgren). My only concern is the inconsistency shown in the hits allowed column this spring.

Round Two: Justin Masterson, rhp, Boston Red Sox

I have spent the last two weeks on board the Masterson train, going as far to write up a capsule on him in preparation for his spot in the first round. It didn't happen, as the Sox got a steal late in the second. Here's my write-up:

A Midwest boy, Masterson was a late bloomer, leaving the prep Ohio scene for Bethel College. Dominated in his second season there, named a NAIA All-American. After committing to San Diego State, Masterson dominated in the Cape Cod League, allowing just four earned runs in 31.1 innings, striking out 39 in the process.

Before yielding big results in his junior season as an Aztec, the majority of Masterson's attention resulted from his developed body. Masterson is 6-6, 245, offering one of the larger pitching frames in the 2006 draft. He has good tilt on a mid 90s fastball, yielding some of round one's top ground ball rates. Like many players in his class, scouts believe Masterson has a good back-up career in relief, where his developed two-pitch arsenal could rise quickly.

However, in the past few weeks, Masterson has become a favorite of mine. For his frame and stuff, few pitchers could boast his type of walk rates allowed: just 26 in 116 innings. In Kent Bonham's recent college stat study on this site, he found Masterson to be as unlucky as they come. Remove defense, park and schedule from the equation, and Masterson's 4.54 ERA drops to 2.67.

The Aztecs rode Masterson hard in the middle of the season; Tony Gwynn kept his Friday starter on the mound for four complete games. But when postseason play became an unrealistic goal, the workload decreased, and Masterson has thrown just 18.1 innings since May 1.

While Bard is a lock to be shut down before pitching again in 2006, Masterson could reasonably spend the year on a limited pitch count, getting in a little more competitive baseball. He's in the perfect organization to be monitored closely.

Supplemental Second: Mark Hamilton, 1b, St. Louis Cardinals

Unfortunately for Hamilton, being drafted here means he enters an organization for which he has no future. Fortunately, he immediately becomes the system's best power hitter, and profiles to move quickly. Hamilton would have led the nation in home runs if not for Hurricane Katrina, which kept Hamilton playing in a pitcher-friendly "home" ballpark. Earlier in the year we read about Hamilton's big power showing on Friday nights, indicating he should transfer to the next level better than power collegiate competitors Aaron Bates and Matt LaPorta. Finally, Hamilton was solid in the Cape last summer, so wood bats won't be a problem, either. Expect Hamilton to get more respect in the trade market in 2008, when he is ready for the show.

Round Three: Stephen King, ss, Washington Nationals

Guilty confession: I love, love, love the Nats draft. I know this now excludes me from future admission to any school of sabermetrics, but I'll live. Kudos to Dana Brown for a job well done, grabbing the likes of Chris Marrero, Jordan Walden, Sean Black and King. The last of the group to be drafted, Jim Callis had predicted earlier on Tuesday that he would end up going 13th overall to the Cubs. And let me tell you, if Tim Wilken likes a guy... Anwyay, King is agile and is fine at short despite a big frame that bodes well for future power. The current market inefficiencies supports high school selections, and Washington capitalized in 2006. This won't pay off right away, but on Tuesday, Jim Bowden laid a foundation.

Round Four: Ben Snyder, lhp, San Francisco Giants

Following his study for this site last week, Kent Bonham sent me a list of all pitchers he used, all of whom appeared on a Baseball America prospect list during the year. I quickly adjusted his spreadsheet, looking for the pitchers with the largest difference between ERA and AdjDERA. This should tell us which hurlers were the most lucky and unlucky this year. A couple of really interesting names showed up, and in the top 10 for most unlucky we find fourth rounders Ben Snyder and Craig Baker, taken eight picks earlier to the Rockies. Snyder gets the nod here because he throws from the left side, has four pitches, and had a very good regional weekend. His status as a draft-eligible sophomore is the only knock against him - he has most of the signability leverage.

Round Five: John Shelby, 2b, Chicago White Sox

My least favorite round of the draft today, and not only because my favorite team spent their pick on the draft's most overrated player (Samardzija). It just seems as the round was chock full of mediocre talents, with Shelby getting the nod over Chris Errecart and Kevin Gunderson thanks to his position. Bonham's analysis ranked Shelby as the draft's third-best collegiate second baseman, so the Sox had good value in this round. Choices like Shelby and Chris Getz, made a year ago, aren't sexy, and don't offer a lot of upside. But in this round, getting potential average Major Leaguers at important positions is a plus.

Round Six: Harold Mozingo, rhp, Kansas City Royals

While Ottavino was always the better pro prospect, thanks to a bigger fastball and better size, the difference between the two is not 147 picks. Mozingo was the better pitcher for most of this season, and enters the Royals system far more polished than Ottavino. Given great command and a good enough curveball to be called an out pitch, Mozingo should rise quickly. 2008 is not an unreasonable ETA. The second option for this spot was Jordan Newton, the beginning of a great middle round run by David Chadd and Dave Dambrowski, to be continued...

Round Seven: Jonah Nickerson, rhp, Detroit Tigers

Tim Norton was almost the guy here, but I wanted to give the Tigers some love. The team went really college-heavy this year, and while reaching with Bourquin and Strieby, the club had quite a few very solid picks. Nickerson fell late in this draft because he doesn't have Buck's upside or Gunderson's arm angle, but Nickerson was the most consistent of the three. The Tigers have oodles of starting pitching as a young organization right now, but Jonah could move quickly as a future member of the back end. The Tigers got Chris Cody in the next run, the Manhattan pitcher that led the Jaspers to an upset this past weekend. Good drafting.

Round Eight: Dellin Betances, rhp, New York Yankees
Round Nine: Mark Melancon, rhp, New York Yankees

I passed on Norton as my seventh round choice because I knew the Yankees had nailed the 8th and 9th rounds. Betances has been telling people its Yankees or bust for quite some time, a theory New York plans to test. If Betances doesn't sign right away, he may go to St. Petursburg JC, and could end up a prime draft-and-follow candidate. Melancon would have been a first rounder if not for injury, and while mildly serious, he's too good to last much longer.

Bonham also tipped me off on another awesome ninth round pick, Nate Boman by the Angels. Labrum victim, yes, but Boman was TheMan last year. These are the types of risks teams should be taking in these late rounds.

Round Ten: Emeel Salem, of, Baltimore Orioles

What? He fell this far? In Bonham's sheet of all the hitters used in his study, Salem is seventh when ranking by Bill James' speed score. The athletic Alabama outfielder stole 32 bases this season, and plays very good defense in center. He is also a very good contact hitter, striking out less than 10% of the time during his junior season with the Tide. With Salem and Emmanuel Burriss, the Orioles landed two of the most athletic collegiate players in the draft. Final tenth round pick Blair Erickson drew consideration for this spot, as did talented football player Jared Mithcell, a high school outfielder taken by the Twins.

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"Everything is a mess," I was told of the 2006 draft in the past few hours. Surprisingly, the person was not talking of my mock draft, but rather the haziness that had yet to clear, with less than twelve hours before the first name is called.

Baseball Analysts will attempt to keep you updated as the day rolls on, liveblogging the event as we did last year. Our comments will be posted as the draft unfolds, most certainly in a fashion different than we anticipated.

However, before the craziness ensures, it is time at one more preview of the draft. We'll open in the same place that most scouting departments will today: attempting to look at the morning mysteries. For me, the three biggest questions that we will soon have answers for are...

1. Kansas City, can you be serious?

For the last calendar year, at least, we have known that Andrew Miller represented the top talent in the draft. And for what appears to be that long, the Royals have remained unconvinced. Now, less than 24 hours before the draft begins, the Royals remain juggling three candidates: Miller, Brad Lincoln, Luke Hochevar.

The future health of the organization demands the Royals pick the player atop their draft board. If it isn't Miller, for whatever reason, they must explain that to their fan base. However, it would be a travesty to waste their top selection on Hochevar for financial reasons. Furthermore, the repercussions of awarding a player for holding out are damning for the future of the Major League draft.

Pick Miller, pick Lincoln, pick Hochevar. I don't care. But KC, please, don't settle for the cheapest choice.

2. How many college pitchers will it be?

The strength of this draft is no secret. There are about 3 legitimate college position players, four solid prep pitchers, and about 5 first round-caliber high school hitters. The rest? College pitchers.

We know that the top half of the first round will involve these hurlers: Miller, Lincoln, Hochevar, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Joba Chamberlain, Brandon Morrow, Greg Reynolds, Daniel Bard. All of these players are first round locks, and it could be argued the group of nine is among the top dozen best players in the draft.

The rest of the first round has another group of college arms that could be selected. Kyle McCulloch, Justin Masterson, Brett Sinkbeil, Dave Huff, Brooks Brown, and JuCo players Pedro Beato and Bryan Morris. The market is offering one commodity, and while this draft's talent base had been criticized, it is flush in polished arms.

The record for pitchers in the first round is 20. My prediction: it will be topped by one tomorrow.

3. Who will be the first to change the complexion of the draft?

Uncertainty surrounds this year's draft like few in the past, making a mock draft nearly impossible for those in the world not named Jim Callis. Not only have the Royals left many in the dark about their forthcoming selection, but so have many other teams that could determine the placement of the draft's top 30 talents.

For instance, the Pirates are in the position to change things. Greg Reynolds has been the name we've heard the most in the past two months, but few would be surprised by Bard, Morrow, Drabek, Kershaw or Stubbs. The Giants pick, drafting tenth, is one domino that could fall post-Pittsburgh. If Bard isn't available, Callis has mentioned San Francisco might go cheap with Chris Parmalee, but what do they do if he's there?

Tim Lincecum and Matt Antonelli are two names suffering right now, both are becoming options for teams that had never considered the names. Kyle Drabek is a wild card, his alcohol abuse makes a fit hard to find. And, of course, we have the deep sleeper choices, like Jeff Samardzija (as high as to the Cubs), to keep us on our toes.

The one certainty this far out is that we will be surprised on Draft Day. The big question is which domino will fall first, and in what direction will it push the rest?

On days like this, we all wish we were flies on the walls of war rooms. Actually, we wish we were the scouting directors at the head of the table, making the decisions. Instead of turning in my application, I have decided to sit back comfortably in my armchair and play backseat director.

As I have done all spring, I am going to stay away from presenting my high school draft board; I'll leave that to the professionals. But through talks with college coaches, a lot of reading, watching and number-crunching, I feel confident in my analysis of the college crop.

So, readers, join me in my war room. The draft is just hours away, and my final collegiate draft board, going 40 names deep, reads:

And yes, I do realize there is a space between Huff and Reynolds on the big board. It represents the simple dividing line between true first round talent, and the rest.

So, that should get us started on a wild day in which near no-hit bids, superstar injuries and rivalry blow outs all play second fiddle to the aluminum bat. Here's to hoping that, for at least today, scouts have priority over wallets on the organizational food chain.

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Before the college season started, I wrote an article highlighting the top 20 2006 draft-eligible college players. It's now fun to look back at the article and see what the year provided, how many players had their fates changed in 2006. Today, I have another piece up at SI.com, this one providing stark contrast to the first.

I was hesitant to write a mock draft for the site, it's dangerous territory to compete with Jim Callis, who predicted the top 18 picks correct last season. However, with a low set of expectations, the draft provides a puzzle of possibilities, a combination of trends and talents. I had fun with the top 30, stretching at times, and I imagine that in 24 hours, we'll be able to look back and laugh just the same as my first piece.

However, while I'm in the predicting mood, here's a few more before Draft Day...

It's always easiest to pick on the team chosen last. In college sports the postseason is simply an unjust finale to a year, in all the NCAA sports across the board. Every playoff system leaves room for argument, and as we build up our disdain, we let it out on team #64, or the selection committee that backed them.

In baseball, those are one in the same. In the largest travesty of the 2006 College World Series tournament, Mississippi State University received a bid to play postseason ball. Their strongest argument, a red-hot start to the season, was topped by Old Dominion's better start. The argument that the SEC deserves more teams than most conference is negated by the exclusion of LSU, their first since 1989.

In the end, the only piece of evidence left that makes sense is that the chair of the selection committee doubles as the MSU athletic director. No joke.

Of course, this wasn't the selection committee's only mistake. There are plenty more - the pac-10 champion Oregon State University didn't receive a top 8 national seed, meaning they play Texas in the second round. But harping on injustices, however, is to ignore the fun tournament that starts this weekend and carries us to late June.

If anything, we can just use the committee's mistakes as reasons to cheer. Root for Oregon State, boo Mississippi State, but in the end, allow yourself to be enraptured. If you are heading into the weekend without a lot of background on the CWS, here's a quick and dirty look at the nation's 16 regionals, to be played this weekend.

Clemson Regional

There was no question among the selection committee who the top teams were -- Clemson, Rice -- the only problem was finding a ranking. Clemson received the nod, and as a result, the definitively less experienced two seed in Elon. However, the Elon offense is nothing to take lightly - six regular spots have an average over .300, and the team is hitting .305/.410/.477 overall. While I like SoCon Freshman of the Year Steven Hensley, who might pitch the Phoenix past MSU, Clemson has an insane amount of depth. Look for the likes of Tyler Colvin, Andy D'Alessio and Josh Cribb to cruise the Tigers into round 2.

Pick: Clemson.

Arkansas Regional

This regional represents another postseason injustice: non-hosting one seeds. While the Cowboys deservedly received the top seed in this regional, the committee opted to play it in Fayetteville. This obviously works in Arkansas' favor, who will already have the dangerous Nick Schmidt (a surefire 2007 first rounder) ready to shut down the dangerous Oklahoma State bats. Oral Roberts walked through the Mid-Continent Conference, but don't depend on them for your upset. If you watch any of this regional, try the Schmidt-Corey Brown match-up, we'll be talking about both a lot in a year.

Pick: Arkansas.

Kentucky Regional

Kentucky very well might be the Cinderella story of the season; the most unlikely of 40-win SEC teams. However, Coach of the Year John Cohen has an offensive bunch, led by Ryan Strieby and John Shelby the team slugged .530 on the year. However, the Fighting Irish just might have the arms to quiet the Wildcats. Jeff Manship is one of the draft's most underrated prospects, but if he gets the nod in an opening round clash against College of Charleston, we might be forced to see Jeff Samardzija get more airtime. I don't like the guy's pro prospects, but in college, his mid-90s fastball is a good bet to get the job done.

Pick: Notre Dame.

Georgia Tech Regional

OK, we have already found a better sophomore potential pitcher-batter match up: David Price vs. Matt Wieters. Price is the odds-on favorite to be the first collegiate player drafted in a year, and if scouts continue to prefer Wieters at catcher (he doubles as a closer), then Matt could be the first hitter taken. But, these players are just faces on a pair of star-studded teams. Price is backed by an offense that includes a fantastic pair of Freshman: Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Flaherty. Tech is a veteran-led team, expect Wes Hodges, Whit Robbins and Jeff Kindel to attack Price. The Commodores are truly a team built for 2007, and given Price's late season slide, the Yellow Jackets should cruise.

Pick: Georgia Tech.

Fullerton Regional

Fullerton is simply a powerhouse, a well-built George Horton factory. This year's team is no exception, led by sophomore ace Wes Roemer - who walked just four batters all year...in 125.2 innings. CSUF does not make mistakes and has depth, a team built for the Super Regionals. I like San Diego to upset Fresno State for rights to lose to the Titans, as Fresno suspended their only significant offensive threat - Beau Mills - for the remainder of the season. San Diego has a good group of arms including Josh Butler and Brian Matusz, they might scare Fullerton, but they won't have the offense to beat them.

Pick: Cal State Fullerton.

Pepperdine Regional

Underline it, circle it and star it; this is the best regional, hands down. Pepperdine was a surprise regional host, but as a result, drew the most difficult four seed. Missouri struggled all season with junior ace Max Scherzer hurt and outfielder Hunter Mense struggling. With Max back, this is a dangerous team. If the Waves could make it past the Tigers, they would face the winner of the John Savage match-up: his new club (UCLA) or his old one (UC Irvine). UCLA is a good team and should make it past Irvine, and I like Scherzer to pitch his way past the host; he's been too good the last two weeks. The deciding game should be UCLA's David Huff against Missouri's Nathan Culp, two of the 2006 draft's best southpaws. Huff is a favorite of mine, and the better pitcher, but I'll take the Tigers as my shocker.

Pick: Missouri.

North Carolina Regional

The Tar Heels were surely one of the last picks to host a regional, especially after not winning a game in the ACC Tournament. But for the first time in more than 20 years, Chapel Hill will be host, and it couldn't be a better group of arms to showcase. UNC will be so tough to beat with Daniel Bard, Andrew Miller, and Robert Woodard all rested and waiting. The team is prone to making mistakes, but I'm not convinced Winthrop is strong enough for the effort. If they pitch their stud freshman, Alex Wilson, against Wilmington, there will just not be enough in the tank to face UNC. If they try to wait with Wilson, they might not even make it past the Seahawks. Lots of pressure on North Carolina to come through, and I think they'll do it.

Pick: North Carolina.

Alabama Regional

Argue with me if you'd like, but this should not be a difficult weekend for Alabama. At all. I say this knowing full well about Mike Felix, the Troy junior two-way player that might be the most underrated player in the country. I also am well aware of Alabama's offensive problems, with a team OPS just north of .800. But this team can pitch, and they should pitch their way to the super regionals. Freshman Tommy Hunter should get the opener against Southern Miss, as 'Bama saves ace Wade Leblanc, and his 10-0 perfect record, to face Felix, who struck out 12 more batters in 20 less innings on the year.

Pick: Alabama.

Rice Regional

I tend to disagree with the committee; Rice is the best team in the country. After starting a bit slow, to use relatively, Rice has been on a tear for the last two months. They destroy anything they come across. That being true, this shouldn't be a hard weekend for the Owls. Arizona State has been in the postseason many times, and should come well coached, but this is another team so dependent upon young hitters. Freshman Brent Wallace, Ike Davis, and Preston Paramore are all key parts to that offense. When these players face senior right-hander Eddie Degerman, who despite a lackluster pro profile does deserve to be in the discussion for pitcher of the year, expect Degerman to come out on top.

Pick: Rice.

Oklahoma Regional

Another very deep regional, and like my pick in the Pepperdine regional, I'm choosing the best arm: Brad Lincoln. The Cougars had quite the argument for hosting a regional themselves, and Lincoln is the reason why - no player in the country carries his team like Brad. But don't take that as a knock on Houston, they have the depth to compete with anyone thanks to a solid group of arms. Wichita State and TCU both seem to be a year away. Oklahoma is an intriguing pick, a veteran team led by senior Daniel McCutchen, but when he faces Lincoln, the Player of the Year will rise to the top.

Pick: Houston.

Virginia Regional

Pass. This is not the best of regionals, as Virginia doesn't strike me as a legit top seed. However, thanks to South Carolina's youth, there is no real direct threat to the Cavaliers. South Carolina is so talented; both Justin Smoak and Reese Havens turned down serious money to become Gamecocks, but neither should be leaned on against Sean Doolittle. The Virginia star beat out the likes of Andrew Miller, Matt Antonelli and Shane Robinson for ACC Player of the Year honors - the result of double-digit win and double totals. Look for Virginia to ride him to the second round.

Pick: Virginia.

Georgia Regional

Georgia struggled in the first half of the season on weekends, losing numerous weekend series before capturing their last 4, and five of their last 6. Their late season success can be credited to Brooks Brown, as well as hitters Joey Side and Josh Morris. All three are juniors on the way out, and are dying to show freshman like Gordon Beckham the way to get it done. Standing in their way is Florida State, who counter Beckham with a freshman shortstop of their own - Buster Posey. The series will likely come down to Bryan Henry against Brown, and with stud sophomore closer Josh Fields waiting in the wings, it's hard to pick against the Bulldogs.

Pick: Georgia.

Nebraska Regional

This should be a cakewalk for Nebraska, as this is really a down season for the Hurricanes. In fact, a first round loss to San Francisco would not be too surprising. The Cornhuskers have such a deep pitching staff that even Manhattan - who does have a 2007 top five rounder - will be getting a top-3 round caliber talent in Tony Watson. Once Joba Chamberlain takes the mound in Lincoln to advance Nebraska, it's over. Chamberlain's profile was built upon last year's CWs, expect more of the same in 2006.

Pick: Nebraska.

Mississippi Regional

To me, the Tulane-South Alabama stands as one of the most intriguing first round match-ups. Tulane, in hopes of making a Super Regional, will likely hold off on ace sophomore Sean Morgan, hoping to throw him against Old Miss. South Alabama, on the other hand, will have all hands on deck in hopes of beating Tulane, including the nation's most prolific pitcher: P.J. Walters. Walters pitched well in the Cape last summer and has been successful for South Alabama all season - certainly an interesting mid rounds selection. If Walters really wants to make a name for himself, it would be by beating Tulane. I don't think he will, however, as I believe the Green Wave's bats will carry them past not only South Alabama, but Ole Miss as well.

Pick: Tulane.

Oregon State Regional

For two years now the Beavers have been a really fun team to root for - college baseball's Mystery, Alaska. The team added even more in terms of likability after getting screwed by the selection committee. Put an adoring fan base together with Dallas Buck, Jonah Nickerson and Kevin Gunderson, all juniors, and you have a regional winner. Kansas is the Kentucky of the Big 12, even more apt after their recent Big 12 tournament win. But if Hawaii ace Steven Wright shuts them down this weekend and upsets the Jayhawks, don't be surprised. In the end, Oregon State, and it won't be particularly close.

Pick: Oregon State.

Texas Regional

There isn't a bad team in this regional - there isn't a consistent one either. Texas was so beatable earlier in the year, coming out of the gates losing to San Diego handily. But the Longhorns have turned it around and enter the tournament ready for another big run, Drew Stubbs and Kyle McCulloch's last hurrah. Without Andrew Brackman, who wasn't even good this year, NC State doesn't have that shutdown pitcher, so the second round match could have a football final score - Texas, 14; NC State, 6.

Pick: Texas.

First of all, let me again attempt to urge you all to watch college baseball when at all possible in the next three weeks. The game of aluminum is a fun one to watch, even if you have to wince through multi-error games. Real emotion will be on display every night, and some of this year and next year's best talents will be passing through television screens and ballparks across the country.

Finally, I know you guys want some "win-it-all" picks. I'll predict the specific Super Regional games next weekend, but let's cross our fingers that we get some dandies like Rice v. Houston, Oregon State v. Texas, UNC v. Alabama and Clemson v. Arkansas. Talk about dramatic baseball. Until then, here's my first guess at the CWS: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Fullerton, Alabama, Houston, Georgia, Nebraska, Texas.

At that point, the hottest team wins, so I'm going to make a surprise choice and pick Alabama to win it all, riding on the veteran arm of Wade Leblanc and Tommy Hunter's new arm. But in the final I think 'Bama plays Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers deserve as good of odds as anyone to win it this year.

Now go, my readers, and fill out those brackets!

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For years, promises were heard and patience was preached. In time, Mike Illitch would be the type of owner that spends money. Over time, Dave Dombrowski would give the Detroit Tigers his patented Florida facelift.

For years, Tigers fans would have to watch the Indians build a dynasty, the Twins make something out of nothing, and the White Sox win a world championship. They were simply instructed to sit back and take it, their day of reckoning was promised to be right around the corner.

For now, these Detroit fans are starting to believe. Maybe Jim Leyland can still manage. Maybe Dambrowski can pull a rabbit from his hat twice. Maybe Illitch will eventually spend the necessary money. Their belief is seen by a recent upswing in attendance numbers - three straight 25,000 home games - that should only continue with three consecutive home series against the Indians, Yankees and Red Sox, respectively.

Personally, I do not believe. The White Sox are too good, too built to last. But this column is not about the south side, but about Motown, and the cautious optimism slowly protruding from it. While I'm far from convinced this is the season the Tigers snap their losing streak, I do see good things happening. Worth noting:

For many of the college players that will hear their names called in the upcoming draft, this weekend is their last to shine. Many are already finished, and many more will see their stock stay volatile as they enter the collegiate postseason. With less than three weeks until the draft, uncertainty still surrounds the last weekend of the NCAA regular season.

Before the craziness of conference and NCAA tournaments creates a large stir in the draft rankings, I wanted to release my first big board of the spring. Before the season, I wrote a top 20 college prospects article for SI.com, but since then, so much has changed.

Please note that the upcoming rankings are in no way the order I think players will be drafted in this June, far from it. Instead, these rankings indicate my opinions based upon statistics and conversations with those inside the game. I chose to keep high school players out of the rankings because I cannot judge them as well, and will leave that to far smarter men.

So, if I was in charge of creating a draft board for a Major League organization, the top 25 of the college version would read like this...

1. Andrew Miller, LHP: North Carolina
His lack of sheer dominance this spring is a concern for a $5M investment, but Miller is worth the money with great stuff and oodles of projectablity.

2. Brad Lincoln, RHP: Houston
Has consistently dominated mediocre competition in 2006 thanks to a lights out fb-cv combination. Improvement in change will determine pro success.

3. Evan Longoria, IF: Long Beach State
Will hit at the next level, as he has been one of the best on Friday nights. At this point, profiles at second or third, and versatility creates a nice utility infielder fallback option.

4. Max Scherzer, RHP: Missouri
His start against Texas last weekend should be a tell-tale sign to organizations that Max is back. With full health, Scherzer could challenge Miller for top spot.

5. Tim Lincecum, RHP: Washington
I love the comparisons to Scot Shields, who Lincecum could be competing against for Best Set-Up Men honors as early as 2007. I just don't see the potential as a starter.

6. Luke Hochevar, RHP: Tennessee/Fort Worth Cats
Seattle Mariners have such an interesting choice in the fifth spot: pony up on Scherzer, Lincecum or Hochevar? For many reasons, the latter choice would be defendable.

7. Drew Stubbs, OF: Texas
Torii Hunter is the closest comparison to Stubbs: great defense, good power, and poor contact abilities. He could be worse, but at the low end, he's a good bench outfielder.

8. Brandon Morrow, RHP: California
Morrow comes at you hard, with a big fastball and a good splitter. He is another that screams future reliever to me, but a bit of refinement could lend an even higher ceiling.

9. Joba Chamberlain, RHP: Nebraska
Joba could stand to use a postseason similar to his 2005 efforts, but no matter what, teams love his future innings-eater potential and hope his fastball returns to the consistent mid-90s.

10. Daniel Bard, RHP: North Carolina
So many questions surround a seven figure arm, as Bard has truly been inconsistent since a fabulous freshman season. Multiple first-round pick organizations should gamble.

11. Matt Antonelli, IF: Wake Forest
I love thinking of Antonelli as an athletic Edgardo Alfonzo; his 2006 improvements should cap a dominant calendar year for Antonelli.

12. Greg Reynolds, RHP: Stanford
For me, the ceiling isn't there. He could eat innings, stay at the back end of the rotation, but if he's much better than that, why doesn't he strike anyone out?

13. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP: Missouri State
A pretty complete package, Sinkbeil has three good pitches and a good pitcher's body. Should fly through an organization to the middle of a rotation.

14. Dave Huff, LHP: UCLA
I fell for Huff following his Cape performance last year, where he looked primed for a good spring. Results have followed, and Huff is the '06 draft's first "crafty southpaw."

15. Ian Kennedy, RHP: USC
I know, I know, it's been an awful three months now. But not many players have 2 seasons like Kennedy and completely fall apart forever. Will eat innings somewhere.

16. Matt LaPorta, 1B: Florida
More weaknesses than strengths, no matter how far he can hit a baseball. LaPorta might be fun to watch, but the caveats should worry people.

17. Kyle McCulloch, RHP: Texas
Similar to Reynolds, pitching with solid-not-great results against very good competition. Kyle's pitchability ranks off the charts, but his ceiling is simply low.

18. Justin Masterson, RHP: San Diego State
Go straight to the bullpen, directly to the bullpen. Do not pass go, do not start any games, and do not collect $200.

19. Drew Carpenter, RHP: Long Beach State
After outperforming teammate all spring, Carpenter closed the year as the Dirtbags' Friday starter. Had many bright spots in 2006, and is a supplemental-type pitcher.

20. Mark Melancon, RHP: Arizona
The health red flag is a cause for concern, but Melancon was playing so well before going down. A calculated risk at the tail end of the first round that could pay off big.

21. Wes Hodges, 3B: Georgia Tech
A big year put him in the top ten, but an inconsistent 2006 may have cost him a first round selection. Hodges won't ever be a Major League star, but could be a solid-to-average third baseman.

22. Jared Hughes, RHP: Long Beach State
The Cape's 2005 darling has not pitched well of late, and his draft status has tanked. But teams love the sinker, and he makes a great early 2nd-round pick.

23. Mark Hamilton, 1B: Tulane
It wouldn't surprise me if Hamilton outplays LaPorta in the pros, where he truly has Ryan Klesko potential. Whoever picks him will get big points from me.

24. Brooks Brown, RHP: Georgia
Another great Cape pitcher that has found mixed results in 2006. A big finish has helped his status, and his controlled 93+ mph fastball is looking more and more appealing.

25. Wade Leblanc, LHP: Alabama
Gave up way, way, way too many home runs this season, but every other peripheral was fantastic in a tough conference. A solid, if unspectacular, second round choice.

Final Honorable Mentions: Dallas Buck (RHP-OSU), Josh Butler (RHP-USD), Josh Rodriguez (SS-Rice), Chad Tracy (C-PEP), Steven Wright (RHP-HAW).

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Daunting. Professional baseball must be daunting to teenagers at first, given the degree of difference that their first full professional season entails. Away from home for the first time. Baseball everyday. For more than five months.

After falling in love with high school draft prospects, and paying large bonuses to deter them from college, Major League organizations ask a lot of their bonus babies. Furthermore, these players must deal with the stress of high pressure, as many are associated with high draft selections. Life is difficult, and oftentimes, baseball -- for the first time in their lives -- does not come easy.

Each year, a traditional article of mine is to identify a number of prospects that I believe will break out. In preparation for this list, I look for trends from past breakout prospects, and attempt to apply that to a new brand of prospects. Certain strikeout and walk rates, ISOs in a given stadium, a telling split. And as I've pointed out this year already, with the case of Reid Brignac, a less-than-stellar Midwest League debut.

In 2004, both Brandon Wood and Adam Jones played in the Midwest League during their first professional seasons, at the ages of 19. Neither played particularly well, both had OPS below .750, neither lived up to the first round status. It wasn't until the next season, when professional baseball became more routine, that results started to match their obvious talent. After missing out on the cases of Wood and Jones in 2004, Reid Brignac's 2005 sent out sirens to me that he was on the verge of a breakout. So far, that looks correct.

Each year there are examples of this, so I recently decided we need a better system of evaluating teenage Midwest League performance. For whatever reason, teenage struggles happen more often in the Midwest, likely because of more difficult stadiums, pitchers, and colder weather. We'll save a look at the South Atlantic League for another article.

The Baseball Cube, a fantastic resource for minor league research, has full data available since the 2002 season. In that timeframe, I went through every Midwest League team, and looked for players during their age 19 seasons, which mostly covered their first run through the MWL. I also looked for players with more than 100 at-bats at the level, to avoid sample size issues. Given those parameters, I found 45 player-seasons since 2002 from which to create a baseline.

Normally, a .725 OPS at any level would not raise eyebrows for a prospect, but for a 19-year-old in the Midwest League, it's average. However, when combing through the list of players, I noticed a group that was more prolific than the rest: first basemen. Five nineteen year olds played first base in the Midwest League since 2002 (Prince Fielder, Kila Kaaihue, Daric Barton, Casey Kotchman, Brad Nelson) and their combined batting lines is an astounding .289/.390/.480, and they make up for nearly a quarter of the home runs.

So, I went back through the study and corresponding Excel spreadsheet, and eliminated the five aforementioned players. First basemen are at the tail end of the defensive spectrum, and their ability to perform with the bat is paramount. How have the other 7 positions on the field fared in the MWL at 19?

Certainly, we can see the effect the first baseman had, as the average OPS drops to .705. Furthermore, there is an increase in the strikeout percentage (which went from 19.7% with all 45 to 20.0% without the 1B) and a decrease in walk percentage (9.3% down to 8.5%). Suddenly, the player with the .725 OPS is not even just average, but nearly 3% above it.

However, this was not quite enough. Given the fact that Wood, Jones and Brignac were all middle infielders, I wanted to further adjust by position. In fact, just last week, I mentioned Paul Kelly as an early potential 2007 breakout, seeing another teenage middle infielder hitting with sub par results. So, going back through the Excel spreadsheet, I eliminated all players that didn't play in the middle infield during their Midwest League stay. While we are left with a number of the original bad players, beyond Wood, Jones and Brignac lay other talents like Ruben Gotay, Ronny Cedeno, Erick Aybar, Josh Barfield and a few other good prospects.

A look at the average middle infield teenage Midwest League batting line, covering 24 players since 2002:

Another decrease. The average ISO is no down to .108, eighteen points lower than it was with the corner infielders, catchers and outfielders added on. Players are still striking out at about a 19-20% rate, but walks are down to about 7.8%, in relation to at-bats. Undoubtedly, players in this category should have even lower expectations than the rest of the group.

This season, I have counted 19 teenage players that currently reside on Midwest League rosters. At the end of the season, it's likely that many of those nineteen will not have impressive batting lines; many will look like early disappointments. However, this may not be true.

What I hope this article did is provide some context to teenage, Midwest League play. Even if MWL 2006 teenager Bryan Anderson finishes the season with a .270/.330/.400 line, we should consider it a small success. If Paul Kelly puts up that line, it will be an astounding forty-three points above the average for middle infielders at that age and level.

I hope this will be the first article in a series, as we also must tackle how our 45 test cases fared after exiting the MWL, how teenagers have done in the South Atlantic League, and how teenage pitchers have done in full season baseball. As I've said in the past, context is everything in minor league baseball, and there is much work left to be done in quantifying the importance of youth.

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It seems the Twins are finally coming to their senses. After too long of letting Kyle Lohse provide bad results to their rotation, Minnesota decided to replace his rotation spot with Francisco Liriano. The future ace had dominated in the bullpen, but like Johan Santana so many years before, was waiting to wreak havoc as a starter.

The Twins slow decision to move to their youth is odd considering an organization that developed 21st century success through their 1990s developmental program. Suddenly an organization that had so aggressively used the likes of Torii Hunter and company was keeping Liriano in the rotation and Jason Barlett in AAA. And while Bartlett remains in Rochester, Liriano seems to be the first domino in the next Twins youth movement.

While confidence in their youth seems to have eroded in the last few years, the Twins ability to develop prospects has continued. Minnesota is one of the best drafting teams in the business, showing very little attention to whether a player attended college or not, whether he's a hitter or pitcher. The Twins take the best player on their draft board, and more often than not, the player succeeds.

For years, the top of Twin prospect lists was filled with fantastic talents, from Liriano to Joe Mauer. Suddenly, this season the minor leagues started with no dominant talent, but significant depth. Now past the quarter mark of the season, it seems apt time to look at how I would assess the current Twins farm system.

1. Matt Garza - RHP

With Francisco Liriano moving to the Major Leagues and exhausting his prospect status, the elite top Twins prospect spot was up for grabs at the beginning of the 2006 season. Not even two months into the season, another pitcher, 2005 first round pick Matt Garza, has taken hold. Garza, a product of Fresno State, entered the Twins system a unique blend of polish and projectablity.

Generally, former collegiate Friday Night pitchers are expected to cruise to AA, facing as few roadbumps as possible on their way. Garza excelled in this regard, making it through the Florida State League without a scratch. In 44.1 innings at Fort Myers, Garza allowed just 27 hits and 11 walks while striking out 53. His ERA was 1.42 upon promotion to the Eastern League.

Last night, Garza proved he belonged on top of the list. While it's hard to learn anything from a single start, Garza proved he belonged in AA in his debut: 7.2 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 13 K. After allowing two of the first five batters he faced to reach base, Garza retired the next 19 hitters before a walk ended his afternoon. With problems in the Twins rotation currently being patched by Boof Bonser, some are hoping Garza makes a meteoric rise to the Majors. However, the Twins would be smartest -- and I don't doubt that they will -- to let Garza take his bumps and bruises in AA.

While Garza isn't on the same plane as Twins prospects of lore, he has a #2/3 ceiling, and should be in the Majors to stay by 2007.

2. Jason Kubel - OF/DH

Many hoped that Kubel's polished bat would start the season in the Minnesota lineup, providing aid to the Twins disastrous offensive problems. However, a lackluster spring coupled with a year away from baseball led to Jason's demotion. Since rejoining the Redwings, Kubel has been solid, if not the International League MVP candidate that many had hoped/predicted.

I am giving Kubel the benefit of the doubt by retaining his high prospect status, but he's a slump away from slipping a bit down the team rankings. I like that Jason is still making contact at a solid rate, and while not proving to be a HR hitter, twelve extra base hits in 106 at-bats is good. However, Kubel's sudden desertion of the base on balls is a concern, only 8 walks so far.

Kubel is a solid prospect at this point, but I don't think he is the middle of the order hitter that many had hoped. Look for Jason to continue hitting well in AAA, and upon promotion, succeeding in the Majors. But please, no more Edgar Martinez comparisons. He ain't that good.

3. Matt Moses - 3B

Few things must excite Twins fans more than the notion of a third base prospect, currently forced to sit through Tony Batista manning the position. And while many likely believe that Moses can't get to the Majors fast enough, the Twins patience with their former top pick should pay off. After back problems in 2004, Moses exploded onto the prospect scene last year, and thus far, has proven his breakout to not be a farce.

Problem is, Moses has also yet to turn on the gas this season. In each offensive category, an improvement could be made. Twenty-nine strikeouts in 131 ABs isn't great. Neither is 10 extra base hits during that time, even if five are home runs. Finally, a third baseman should be walking more than 10 times in 145 plate appearances.

With no real competition to speak of, it's safe to say that Moses is the Twins future at the hot corner. But unless Garza accelerates soon, it will be hard to project anything beyond the average 3B for his future.

4. Glen Perkins - LHP

Confusing early results so far. Perkins, a former first round choice from nearby University of Minnesota, Perkins pitched great last year through high-A before hitting a wall at AA. But good-stuff southpaws are a rare breed, and the Twins promised to use patience with Perkins. So far, Perkins second trial of the Eastern League has gone pretty well.

But, for some reason, things have not gone extraordinarily. Perkins is on a prospect-laden staff in AA, joined by the likes of Errol Simonitsch (2.51 ERA), Adam Harben (2.12) and Justin Jones (3.25). Perkins' 3.58 ERA is the worst of the group, odd because the southpaw also has the group's best peripheral numbers. I am a big fan of Perkins blend of control and stuff, and certainly his handedness helps things. But before becoming an elite prospect, Perkins has to get his ERA down, a feat possibly made easier by reduced HR/9 numbers.

5. Kevin Slowey - RHP

Another early season example of the college pitcher dominating A-ball competition, Kevin Slowey was Garza's running mate in Fort Myers. For some reason, when the Twins decided to move Garza to the Eastern League, Slowey stayed. Apparently, the right-hander's 63/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio was not good enough for the Twins.

Drafting Slowey from Winthrop, the Twins expected to get a polished pitcher. Never one to throw a hard fastball, Slowey has always depended on fantastic control and a better change up. By throwing the ball where he wants and changing speeds, Slowey has developed a formula for success. But the Twins have seen dominating performances turn to rust in the road between Fort Myers and New Britain before (see: Perkins), so approaching Slowey carefully is probably for the best.

At this point in the season, Slowey's numbers are simply out of this world. However, few types of pitchers demand AA results before proper evaluation like Slowey's kind, lacking any projectablity to speak of.

6. Anthony Swarzak - RHP

After watching a player in person, at his worst, the memory is difficult to forget. Last year, following his fantastic May, I saw the beginning of a June Swoon for Anthony Swarzak. Ever since, I stayed farther away from his bandwagon than most. This season, that mentality seems to be paying dividends. Swarzak has not been bad this season, striking out 40 in 39 innings. But, accusations of being both hittable (44 hits) and wild (20 walks) is not a good omen. I was concerned last year that Swarzak's high-80s fastball was not enough, and I will stick to that belief. Swarzak will always get noticed thanks to a great hook, but without a good, controlled fastball, Swarzak's curve will go to waste.

7. Alex Romero - OF

One of the missed breakout predictions I had from 2005, Romero is having an interesting season so far. First assigned to AAA, the Twins rushed to a demotion when Romero was hitting just .192 through eight games. The decision seemed a bit forced - Alex had a good BB/K ratio and seemed on the verge of turning things around - but promoting confidence at an easier level is defensible. Since being moved back to the Eastern League, Romero has done very well, hitting .277/.362/.458. For about three years now, Romero has continued to be good at everything, but great at nothing, the sign of a future fourth outfielder. With good speed, better patience, a fantastic ability to make contact and a left-handed bat, Romero is as good a bet as any to have a long Major League bench career. But until his defense improves or his power blossoms, a starting spot seems like a stretch for Romero.

8. Eduardo Morlan - RHP

Alright, now we're talking. Morlan, who turned 20 years old during Spring Training, is an exciting prospect. A former Cuban, the Twins grabbed Morlan in the third round of the 2004 draft, obsessed with the stuff he would bring to the system: mid-90s fastball, a very good breaking pitch, and a solid change. Morlan lacked control and profiled as a reliever, but given his stuff, worse things could be said. This season, the report is still the same. In the Midwest League, Morlan has surrendered just 13 hits in 25.1 innings, actually allowing more walks: 15. He strikes batters out at a great rate (34), and keeps the ball in the park. Right now, the Twins have jerked Morlan between the rotation and the bullpen, but given his success, expect an extended starter trial to undergo soon. Morlan's stuff is second just to Garza's on this list, as is his ceiling, but few players could flame out as easily.

9. Paul Kelly - SS

Now that Reid Brignac's breakout if becoming official, I'm really starting to believe that teenage Midwest League middle infielders should have reduced expectations. To just use recent examples, the aggregate Midwest League OPS of Adam Jones, Brignac and Brandon Wood -- all of whom played in the MWL at 19 as shortstops -- was .727. Kelly's, thus far, is sitting at .724. I am beginning to become high on Kelly, who has shown gap power (10 2Bs in 149 ABs) that could eventually provide home runs, patience (17 BBs) and a good enough ability to make contact. Kelly is likely going to have a modest season, mostly generating excitement through doubles and good defense. But on the horizon seems to be a breakout, unfortunately Paul's next stop is not the California League.

10. Denard Span - OF

If nothing else, I can respect a prospect with a back-up plan. While, without a doubt, Span would ideally like to become the next Twin leadoff hitter, there is another route he can take: fifth outfielder. Span, a fantastic defensive outfielder, also has the great contact skills associated with good top-of-the-order players. Unfortunately, Span doesn't walk a ton, and offers even less power. After homering in his first game, Span has just three extra-base hits since, all doubles, and looks to be a future bench player if things don't change soon. However, a bench career would be helped if Span became a better baserunner; he has been successful on just five of eight attempts so far, bringing his success ratio under 66%. A frustrating talent, to be sure.

And those that deserve mention outside the top ten, in no particular order...

The Twins system is loaded, so a breakdown of the top ten cannot even do it justice. Just outside the top ten were a pair of AA pitchers, Adam Harben and Justin Jones, both of which have control problems, both of which probably will need moves to the bullpen to make any real success happen ... Trevor Plouffe began the season hailed by many as a breakout candidate, but his hitting problems have continued. In addition to a complete lack of power at the plate, I think Plouffe is the rare example of a player too selective at the plate: 24 walks in about 150 plate appearances! ... In fact, Plouffe's double play partner, Alexi Casilla, might be the better prospect. Acquired in a trade for J.C. Romero, Casilla has good contact ability (21 K in 157 AB) and great speed up the middle. Likely a future bench player ... Kyle Waldrop has not pitched good enough in his second Midwest League go-around so far, still proving to be too hittable. I don't think the fastball will ever be good enough for sustained success ... Pat Neshek is the most interesting story in the farm system, a former 6th round pick (from Butler University) that entered the year with a career 2.22 minor league ERA. This season, in AAA, Neshek has struck out 49 batters in 27.2 innings. Other than a high HR rate, all signs seem to be go for Neshek's big league promotion ... Henry Sanchez was the rare example of a first round high school first baseman in 2005, but his early results have been very damning. After an early season power surge, Sanchez has allowed his OPS to drop to .660 while striking out in nearly 40% of his at-bats ... I'll close things out by mentioning two completely different pitchers: J.D. Durbin and Brian Duensing. Durbin, a prospect in the system for ages, has looked good in AAA so far except for a very high walk ratio. His move to relief needs to be made soon. Duensing is just in low-A, but he's far more polished than Durbin. Too early to get any good readings from Duensing's numbers, but he could enter legit prospect status if he replaced Kevin Slowey soon in the Fort Myers rotation.

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Last week in this space, I took a different look at the nation's best college hitters: examining each by their Friday Night performance. Given this split information, we could quickly identify the players performing at the highest levels against their best competition. Suddenly, qualms about Matt Antonelli's performance against top programs were erased.

My goal entering this week was to unveil another collegiate stat, this time allowing us to look at pichers in a different way. However, today offers no new statistic, no rock turned over for the first time. However, in my game log pursuits, I did realize a quick-and-dirty system for evaluating one of the most important qualities for a top draft pick: momentum.

Ask Lance Broadway, who went from third round material to becoming a first round choice in a matter of weeks. Broadway has been good this season, validating the selection that many called a reach. However, each year it seems a pitcher rises in May up draft boards wih a good few weeks.

Today, we will be looking at how the top ten pitchers in the country have done in their last five appearances. Now this group has been, for the most part, considered first round talent from the get-go, today is merely to introduce the style. In the coming weeks, I will profile more pitchers as we try to identify this year's Broadway.

For their last five weeks, I have compiled each pitcher's counting stats, as well as two other factors. I will provide the average ISR for the opponents faced over that time period, as well as the average game score in the last five weeks. Game score is not perfect, but it's the best method in providing perspective with the dominance of an outing. Baseball's top ten pitchers...

Brad Lincoln obviously gets points for most impressive on this list, with the signficantly highest game score. However, during that time period, Lincoln faced three teams over Boyd Nation's top 100, striking out 34 batters in 23 innings against these teams. His start against Rice last week, a five-hitter with nine strikeouts, did affirm that Lincoln belongs in the top ten. In terms of dominance, Lincoln leads off the list.

I am, surprisingly, most impressed with Greg Reynolds of any pitcher on this list. I have been quoted as saying that Reynolds is the most overrated first round talent, but he is really coming around this season. His five starts have all been very difficult, but Reynolds has excelled, particularly in the last three: 27 IP, 3 ER, 17 H, 4 BB. I have criticized Reynolds for the lack of results, but they are now there, even though the strikeouts aren't. Reynolds blend of projectablity and results will get him in the first round, and while my intuition frowns on the pick, he is giving me less and less to point at.

Staying near the top of the list, Dave Huff deserves mention. I fell in love with Huff during the Cape Cod League last year, pegging him as a breakout candidate in his move to John Savage. It has happened, and Savage has proven the scouting world that Huff is an innings eater, going at least 8 innings in his last five starts, and at least nine in his last four. I'm worried that Huff is too hittable at times, that his lack of overall dominance will plague him at higher levels. But fantastic control and very good stuff (though not great) can go a long way for a southpaw.

Most of you probably cringed when you saw just how low the UNC duo ended up on the list. Especially when considering their low average ISR, even if Nation's system is West Coast friendly. Bard has been so inconsistent all season; his April 9 start against Miami really hurts his numbers here, though. In his last three appearances, Bard has allowed only 13 hits in 18.2 innings, allowing just three earned runs to cross the plate. Bard's series of poor performances will scare many, but his stuff and occasional dominance does yield a first round pick.

Miller hasn't been extremely dominant for a while, lacking one game score above 66. Miller's draft status is locked in, however, so these numbers only matter so much. After some midseason dip in his strikeout numbers, they are back in his last three starts, 21 in 20.2 innings. His control is also down in that period, and Andrew has really made a point of generating a ton of ground balls. No concerns about Miller, folks, he's right on pace.

This list also does a good job in showing the continuing fall of Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. I still like both players; many first round teams would be best off with their innings-eater arms. However, the lack of a ceiling really will scare some clubs off. Kennedy concerns me the most because his control has been really off - 10 walks in his last 24 innings. Without control, Kennedy isn't much. Chamberlain has had walk problems do, allowing at least two in his last five outings. However, Chamberlain's plus strikeout numbers in each outing, including against Texas, have provided credence to his draft status.

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Life without Barry Bonds equals futility. At least this has been the case so far, as Bonds' lone organizational exit has yielded thirteen straight losing seasons. Soon, Bonds will be leaving another team for which he has been a mainstay on, this time leaving baseball for good.

The San Francisco Giants have been, for years, a team built around Barry Bonds. The front office's strategy is simple and easily identifiable: win while you have Bonds at all costs. With this approach, Sabean has spent years making short-sighted trades, giving San Francisco a winning baseball team from 1997-2004. Suddenly, however, Sabean's tactics don't appear as genius.

As the cameras follow Bonds so intently this season, the Giants have been plagued with mediocrity, falling to last place in baseball's worst division. Injuries have started to hit many of the thirtysomethings that encompass the starting lineup. The Giants are simply a team trapped between two time periods -- the consistent winnings of the previous decade and the forthcoming retooling of the next.

Can life after Barry Bonds prove more successful than the Pittsburgh Pirates model? Surely, with better management and a sound blueprint, it is almost inevitable. With Bonds likely retiring after the 2007 season, the pressure is now on for Sabean and company to begin planning.

While the farm system will unquestionably be important in the rebuilding process, the Giants have a luxury the Bucs never had: money. Not only will Bonds' exit bring in excess of eight figures off the payroll, but the forthcoming exits of many veteran players will present Brian Sabean with a myriad of options.

Arbitration players notwithstanding, the Giants can see nearly $50 million coming off the books between now and 2008. Come 2008, the only contractually-bounded commitments are with two dependable starters (Matt Morris, Noah Lowry) and two fringe position players (Randy Winn, Mike Matheny). This means that in the next two seasons, Sabean has to find the new core of the Giants.

What spots can Sabean depend upon the San Francisco youth to fill? Offensively, not much. Graciously, we can assert that second base is accounted for, either by Kevin Frandsen or Marcus Sanders. I'm not particularly sold on either player, but given Frandsen's 2006 and Sanders' 2005, it isn't too much of a stretch to think either is the current long-term answer at second base.

The team is light on corner infield players, especially for those that don't believe in Pedro Feliz or Lance Niekro. At this point, it seems Feliz is no more than a bench player, and Niekro nothing more than some 2005 lightning in a bottle. While Travis Ishikawa could make some noise, I am not a believer. The Giants are simply light on infield youth; any depth is reserved for the outfield.

The Giants have few better long-term bets than Eddy Martinez-Esteve, slowly but definitively moving up the minor league ranks. Esteve has some defensive problems, without a doubt, but either at 1B or LF, he will be an everyday player by 2008. I believe the same to be true about Fred Lewis, who probably should be leading off by the bay in 2007. Lewis' full-time position might move Winn to the bench indefinitely, but Fred's minor league success demands a role.

San Francisco has numerous other long-term options in the outfield, most falling under the headings of 'adequate fourth outfield type' or 'too risky to project'. The latter group includes both Nate Schierholtz and Ben Copeland, both with high ceilings and high flame-out potential. And while I really like Dan Ortmeier and Brian Horwitz, neither profiles to be much more than a bench player. Guys like Ortmeier, Horwitz and Jason Ellison are all useful, just not on starting lineups or in the same organization.

So, where does that leave us offensively? I am confident predicting three spots will be filled by youth, with Matheny, Winn, Ellison and Feliz all as potential bench options. Needless to say, the group does not inspire a ton of hope.

The pitching staff offers more upside, however, despite Sabean's best efforts to trade every pitching prospect he can. While Sebean's belief in TINSTAPP has paid off on numerous occasions, Giants fans must wince every time they see Keith Foulke, Joe Nathan or Francisco Liriano near a pitcher's mound. Still, Sabean was unable to trade all San Fran's pitching youth, leaving some room for optimism.

As mentioned, both Matt Morris and Noah Lowry should be in the 2008 rotation, providing 400 innings and sub-average ERAs. The latter is a long-term bet for a rotation spot. And despite some extreme early season struggles, uber-prospect Matt Cain still profiles to be the Giants future ace. This only leaves two rotation spots for Sabean to fill.

One, you can bet, will come via the current farm system. Pat Misch has gained all the early season accolades, using a change-speeds approach to manage a 0.84 ERA in 43 current Eastern League innings. Misch's second run around Fresno, destined to come later in the year, should answer whether or not Misch is made for a rotation spot.

If not the late bloomer, than perhaps the Giants could fill a spot with one of two hard-throwers: Merkin Valdez or Jonathan Sanchez. Valdez has been a prospect for ages, but like Andy Marte across the country, has not yielded enough high-level dominance. Also, Valdez has been stuck in the bullpen in AAA, which seems to be the Giants plans for him. Sanchez is the question mark; the Giants have toyed with him in both the bullpen and rotation. In any role he's used, the hard-throwing southpaw has been great, allowing 13 hits (0 homers) while striking out 39 in 27 AA innings.

Alongside Valdez in the long-term relief plans seems to be Jeremy Accardo, a budding young set-up man that I am high on. The club also has some potential relief talent in the minors -- like LBSU's Brian Anderson -- and even some potential help in the Majors (Kevin Correia), but it seems that only Valdez and Accardo are dependable bets.

Surely, the Giants seem to be better built in their staff than the flipside for the long-term. Lowry, Cain, Sanchez, Valdez and Accardo are all good bets. Matt Morris, Brad Hennessey, Kevin Correia, Craig Whitaker and Pat Misch could all be there. While undoubtedly not set in this area, we definitely know that Sabean should have his eyes on the lineup.

In conclusion, to be blunt, the Giants have a lot of work to do before Barry Bonds retires. Namely, this includes acquiring and developing numerous young position players and a few young pitchers. This can be done in a number of ways: with the millions that the Giants payroll will shed in the next two winters, through trades (Jason Schmidt, Steve Finley, Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel, etc), and through the draft.

While the Giants have been immune from the draft in recent years, choosing to forfeit their first round picks, such will not be the case in 2006. San Francisco will be picking twice in the first round, both in the tenth and 33rd draft spots. The Giants should undoubtedly choose the best player on their board, but in the case of a tie, look for the club to be leaning towards position players. With the tenth pick, both Matt LaPorta and Billy Rowell are potential choices, as well as a list of pitchers too long to mention.

No matter which direction the Giants go in June, the team must begin a new commitment -- towards youth. With each day on his knees, Barry Bonds' days become more numbered, and the onus shifts more and more towards the front office to turn the Giants into a winner.

Life without Barry Bonds will not be easy. But, with any foresight, San Francisco should be able to avoid the disastrous fate of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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...where credit is due. The Major League season is now about 20% over, making the usual pretender/contender game a bit more valid. However, I don't want to rain on parades in Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston and Colorado, so we'll try to find optimism elsewhere.

In replacement for the usual Friday notes column, I decided to give credit to the top half (records-wise) of the MLB and write a paragraph detailing each farm system. It is in no way an attempt to be comprehensive, but merely a simple tool for word association. Among the minor league happenings that have drawn my eye recently...

Chicago White Sox - The idea to replace Brian Anderson with Ryan Sweeney in the outfield makes such little sense to me. Anderson has provided Rowand-ish defense so far, and offers pop that Sweeney doesn't: 72 extra-base hits in 1149 professional at-bats. Batting average isn't everything...Aaron Cunningham is the type of player that I might pick to break out next year. He's been sensational in the Sally League at the age of 20.

Cincinnati Reds - Homer Bailey is really starting to turn on the gas, literally proving he has "no hit" stuff. With enhanced control this season, minor league baseball might not have a better pitcher once the summer hits full swing... Paul Janish has played so well this season, but don't buy into his stock. It's the college-draftee's second time in the league, and the Florida State League will prove how weak his bat is. The glove should turn him into a nice minor league veteran, though.

New York Mets - A farm system of four players, only three of whom have serious ceilings. Milledge, Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez are all great prospects, but Alay Soler is probably the subplot of the season. Considered by many this past winter as a lost cause, Soler (with the help of Pelfrey) will make Victor Zambrano an afterthought. Let's just hope that Soler, Brian Bannister and Scott Kazmir are teaching the front office a lesson: older isn't always better.

St. Louis Cardinals - A farm system that I think is on the upswing, thanks to a good 2005 draft and a good number of picks in 2006. Colby Rasmus continues to bounce back from him slow start, but we can now add southpaws to the growing weaknesses list that already includes breaking pitches. Let's hope the list ends there ... Adam Wainwright has been great in the Majors so far, which really creates a lot of questions surrounding Anthony Reyes. With all the arguments we have for the most over and underrated prospect, one thing we should all agree on is that Reyes is the least appreciated prospect.

Boston Red Sox - He didn't make it to my recent article praising new prospects, but Mike Bowden would make a top 75 if I wrote it up today. Subtract one start from his numbers, and Bowden is an elite talent. Even his inconsistency has not plagued a great set of peripheral statistics. Bowden has surely bested Clay Buchholz so far ... Speaking of bad starts, Jon Lester is starting to return to his status as an elite pitching prospect. In his last four starts, spanning 18.1 innings, Lester has allowed just four earned runs. When are we going to accept he just always starts slow?

Detroit Tigers - This is a very hard system to get a feel for, with an odd blend of prospects. In terms of upside, the top two talents are definitely Cameron Maybin and Humberto Sanchez. The Tigers have dealt with bad pitching for so long, it's interesting that Jim Leyland has been handed a rotation of fireballers. Sanchez always seems to be too inconsistent as a starter, but even more so than Joel Zumaya, I think he could make a dynamite reliever. Trying Zumaya and Jordan Tata in the rotation, while filling their bullpen slots with Sanchez might be a good late-season experiment for the Tigers.

New York Yankees - So much for Eric Duncan's big turnaround as a prospect, huh? The first baseman is hitting .228/.295/.277 in a season when Jason Giambi has a .500+ on-base percentage. Duncan's strikeouts are down, which is nice, but where oh where are the power numbers? ... If you think the support Cole Hamels has gotten for his call-up has been extensive, think about Phil Hughes' upcoming promotion. No, it won't be too soon, but an August injury could bring a phenom to New York.

Houston Astros - Last year the Astros drew a lot of publicity for a draft which included Brian Bogusevic, Eli Iorg and Koby Clemens. It seems now as if the praise might have been premature. Clemens has been hurt for much of the season, but ineffective while playing. Eli Iorg's OPS is below .600, thanks to 3 walks for the season. Most of the hits are being credited to Bogusevic, who has allowed 25 in just 12.2 innings. I wouldn't want to be the person accountable for these misplayed millions.

Colorado Rockies - Everything is on the up and up for this organization. If the Kansas City Royals make the Tim Lincecum mistake, the Rockies will be handed a major piece to their puzzle. All the talk for the 2006 draft has focused around the lack of heavy talent at the top, but Andrew Miller is the type of player this organization needs. A boring two-seamer, a 95+ four-seamer and a fantastic slider seems to be a potential recipe for Coors success. Chris Nelson seems to be the exception to the rule of good first-round picks by the Rockies recently.

Toronto Blue Jays - Ricky Romero looked great in his minor league debut, and should be up to the Major Leagues in short order. Given Josh Towers' struggles in the early goings, it won't take much for some aggressive promoting. Romero in Toronto by season's end? Bet on it ... The early returns on the Blue Jays' early-round college outfield selections have been positive, especially with Ryan Patterson's recent 6-for-6, 3 HR day in Dunedin. Drafting in the middle rounds has been a successful venture for the Riccardi regime.

Philadelphia Phillies - The question now is: how will Gio Gonzalez react now that the pressure is placed on his left shoulder, with Cole Hamels graduating to the big leagues? Gonzalez is a pretty fantastic talent, and the Phillies will have the makings of a young, talented rotation by 2007. How the likes of Scott Mathieson and Zach Segovia fit in, at this point, is unknown ... Whither Bradley Harman? After garnering my prediction for a 2006 breakout, and performing well in the World Baseball Classic, Harman has been a non-entity in Clearwater. One of my biggest disappointments of the young season, to be sure.

Arizona Diamondbacks - Mike Rizzo is one of the most talented scouting directors in baseball, and I would never tell him how to do his job. But, I also have a plan for the Diamondbacks draft. Why not take relatively cheap players with the 11 and 34 selections, and then gamble with #55? Given that the club's low-A affiliate is in South Bend, Indiana, is there a better fit for Notre Dame WR/RHP Jeff Samardzija? Scouts love his potential in both sports; Mel Kiper has him 7th on his first 2007 draft board. With a creative contract and the ability to play in his college town, Samardzija could really test the baseball waters with this organization.

San Diego Padres - The hopes of the entire farm system lay on the bat of George Kottaras, currently managing a .292 ISO in Mobile, a very tough hitters' park. Kottaras also was surrounded by power red flags, but the consistent addition of that to his game is a benefit. However, how must the Padres front office be balancing such encouraging signs with his 34 strikeouts (in 96 at-bats)? Like the rest of the farm system, it really seems to be one step forward, two steps back ... Given the huge outfield in PETCO Park, you really have to wonder if Kevin Towers winces every time he sees Jered Weaver throw seven scoreless innings with more than a dozen flyball outs.

Texas Rangers - I did not like the trade for Freddy Guzman yesterday at all. Guzman's career should double that of a fifth outfielder's, with some outside ceiling to become a leadoff hitter. Conversely, John Hudgins has potential as a back-end pitcher a la John Maine, while Vince Sinisi has a bit of thunder in his bat. Neither player's loss in the Rule 5 Draft would have caused Jon Daniels to blink this past winter, but that hardly means he should begin pressing ... Another draft combination that I think is perfect: Luke Hochevar in Texas. A hard-throwing sinkerballer in a pitching-starved organization with a hitter-friendly ballpark? A good connection with Scott Boras? Only one pick in the top 85? Drafting Hochevar and offering $2.5 million is in the best interests of all parties involved.

Oakland Athletics - Last year Marcus McBeth was moved to the mound full-time, and spent his season split between the Rookie Leagues and the Kane County Cougars (low-A). While McBeth started the season off great in the Cal League, allowing just one hit in 8 appearances, his promotion to the Pacific Coast League was too extreme. The former outfielder is a great talent off the mound, but rushing him makes little sense. Bring him into the majors in 2008, as he is hitting his physical peak, and see a true Brooks Kieschnik success story ... Daric Barton, Kevin Mellilo, maybe Travis Buck. The future of this team is really about to hit the Majors for good, providing good fodder for Moneyball 2.

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When managers leave Spring Training at the end of March, with a 25-man roster chosen, they intend to stick with it. For much of April, struggling players are given free passes; their team anticipates the player will come around in short order.

We are now beginning to enter the time of the year in which injuries and demotions start to pile on. Many minor league players saw a hot April up their prospect status, and are ready to thrive on a May opportunity. In the past few days, and in the coming few, there are six transactions that I want to highlight today. Which players will stick and which are merely Band-Aids?

We'll start things off with three players that have been called up to the Majors within the past three days...

Since August 1 of last season, Jose Contreras is the AL Cy Young: 14-1, 1.82 ERA, 2.77 K/BB. And while Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland came out of the April gates slow, Contreras established himself as the ace of the South Side. To many teams, his loss would be devastating. So why are White Sox fans simply shrugging off Conteras' sciatic nerve problems?

It isn't Brandon McCarthy. No, the young hurler labeled by many as the game's best sixth starter will remain in the bullpen while Contreras spends time on the DL. Instead, the White Sox brain trust chose to go with their seventh starter, 22 year old right-hander Charles Haeger.

Don't worry if the name doesn't ring any bells; before the season, Haeger was an afterthought in prospect circles. After a Spring Training that yielded a 10.45 ERA, his only notoriety came as a result of his knuckleball. Haeger will pitch against Ervin Santana and the LA Angels tonight, and thanks to six good starts, his current reputation is that of the minors' best knuckleballer.

In none of Haeger's six starts with the Charlotte Knights did he allow more than one run. Only once, in his last start, did he allow more hits than the number of innings he pitched. Conversely, Haeger will have to battle through control problems, having walked 20 batters in 40 AAA innings. And, as one might expect from a knuckeballer, the play of the catcher will be a focal point for Haeger's success. In his six starts this season, Haeger's catchers have allowed 14 passed balls, and Haeger has been credited with four wild pitches.

One can bet a healthy dose of walks, wild pitches and passed balls will not yield Contreras-esque success in Haeger's first Major League cup of coffee. If he does stymie the Angels, it will be because the knuckleballer provoked groundballs, few hard hits, and received help from behind the plate. Unfortunately for Haeger, trading for Doug Mirabelli is a luxury the White Sox cannot afford.

When the Yankees acquired Johnny Damon this winter, Bronx fans were convinced their days worrying about the outfield was over. Durability problems from Damon, Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui were hardly anticipated. The days of Bubba Crosby and Bernie Williams' weak arm were thought to be behind them.

Unexpectedly, Gary Sheffield now is on the DL, out with problems in his wrist. Rather than turning to Crosby or Williams, the Yankees recalled Melky Cabrera, the prospect that gave the Yankees a very forgettable cup of coffee in 2005. Cabrera's reputation had previously been tarnished in New York, but with early positive results from Columbus, the Yanks knew they had no better options.

As is his strength, Cabrera has magnificently kept his strikeout numbers down in 2006, whiffing just 9 times in 122 at-bats before his call-up. His contact skills should be a plus at any level, keeping his average at an acceptable level. His patience is decent enough; concerns have always focused on his power, or lack thereof. However, with 12 extra-base hits in his 31 International League games, some are wondering whether Cabrera could be more than a fourth outfielder.

The answer: doubtfully. Cabrera is a fine fill-in at the bottom of a fantastic lineup, capable of putting the ball in play consistently. But without any real strength to speak of, it's unlikely his power could ever support a full-time spot in a corner outfield spot. In center, his mediocre defense -- which looked poor in his first 2006 MLB game -- would be exposed.

In basketball, Cabrera would be a 6-6 power forward, or a 5-11 shooting guard; in other words, he's your classic tweener. Expect the Yankees to bear his play for the next two weeks, but don't expect him to be featured in any future plans besides trades or a bench spot.

Things weren't supposed to be this hard for the Angels. After committing to building the farm system, the Angels entered this season with the most top-heavy, ready farm system in the Major Leagues. But things haven't gone to plan in Los Angeles. Jeff Mathis didn't hit at all, Casey Kotchman's mono hindered his ceiling with the bat.

Now, Mathis finds himself in Salt Lake, Kotchman on the DL. The Angels have tried calling up Mike Napoli to fill in at catcher, and the short, powerful player would homer in his first Major League at-bat. Howie Kendrick was called up to fill in at a variety of roles, including at the DH spot instead of Tim Salmon. Sporadic play has proven to be the one thing that could slow Howie's play.

With Kotchman on the DL, the Angels decided to recall Dallas McPherson, another former blue-chip prospect that stagnated when reaching the Major League level. After failing to make the Angels out of Spring Training, McPherson showed his true colors in the Pacific Coast League, slugging and striking out. In his 102 at-bats, McPherson hit 20 XBH, while whiffing 49 times. Yes, in just 33 at-bats in 26 games did McPherson not slug an extra-base hit or strike out.

Concerns about McPherson's contact skills have never been more prevalent, his batting average ceiling appears to be at about .260. But for a team struggling to find offense, like the Angels have in 2006, waiting around for McPherson to hit the ball hard could actually present a welcome change.

Call-ups To Be

On Sunday, Cole Hamels had the worst start of his AAA career: he allowed a run. However, it was just one run in 7 innings, while allowing 5 hits and one walk. Hamels' ten strikeouts brought his AAA total to 36, amassed in just 23 innings.

Few prospects have flown up lists this spring like Hamels, whose polish appears ready for the Major Leagues. His change up, some have posited, could be among the best at the Major League level. Remember, you might, that Delmon Young once called the pitch the nastiest he had faced as a teenager.

With nine straight wins, the Phillies have continued to urge they have no need to rush Hamels. But, what Pat Gillick must understand is, at this point, it's not rushing. Hamels is ready. Ryan Madson is ready for a move back to the bullpen. It's a match made in heaven, and despite the loaded National League rookie crop, it's a move that could produce the NL Rookie of the Year.

Without a doubt, you have heard about Kerry Wood's first rehab start: 12 strikeouts in 5 innings. While the Lansing Lugnuts don't quite provide the intimidation that the Cardinals or Astros might, it's a start for Kid K, having spent so much of the last couple years on the DL.

When Wood returns, the Cubs rotation should return to being the club's strength. Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux are both dependable, fantastic starters. Sean Marshall has provided lightning in a bottle, seemingly improving in each of his six starts. Wood will make for a very good foursome, and it will be only weeks before Angel Guzman or Rich Hill is replaced by Mark Prior.

No matter how good the rotation might look, it appears that the Cubs simply don't have the offense to compete in baseball's (current) toughest division. In the Cubs last 11 games, they are 1-11, sliding near the bottom of the NL Central barrel. During this streak, the Cubs have scored a measly 13 runs, never more than three in any contest.

Kerry Wood's coming back? Yawn. Wake me when Derrek Lee returns.

Speaking of oft-injured pitchers, Ben Sheets is returning to the DL, leaving the Milwaukee Brewers again without an ace. Finally, it appears like the Brewers may have a competent replacement.

As good as Hamels has been in his short AAA stint, the best southpaw at the level in 2006 may be Dana Eveland, the David Wells look-a-like Brewer prospect. Yesterday, Eveland saw his first loss of a season come in a game in which Eveland did not allow an earned run. He was credited with two unearned runs, which he tends to allow as his groundball-provoking nature puts pressure on the seven behind him.

Dana Eveland isn't found often on prospect lists, his ceiling nowhere near as high as some prospects. He doesn't strike batters out at a good enough rate, more of a groundball-control specialist than anything else. But in a rotation currently featuring Tomo Ohka and an underachieving Doug Davis, Eveland could quickly become one of the Brewers best weapons.

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One of the questions I receive through e-mail most often is, something like, "Bryan, to what minor league level do you think college baseball best equates with?"

This is always a tough question to answer, currently impossible to quantify. The best we can do is to guess with our eyes. College baseball's best teams probably hover around high-A ball, while most regional qualifiers might be able to hold their own in the Midwest League (low-A). As we get towards the bottom, some aren't good enough to compete in the Rookie Leagues.

As college baseball fans know, a week for a big program usually consists of 1-2 midweek games and a 3-game weekend series. For most teams, the best pitcher on the team opens the weekend series, usually starting Friday nights. Friday nights are when teams should be at their best, with the best starter on the mound, and the best 8 behind him. Many Carolina League teams would want to avoid UNC on Friday nights.

Recently, I started to wonder how hitters perform on Friday nights. At the Major League level, we have splits for everything: month, LH vs. RH, spot in the order, with RISP, etc. I started to realize that for college hitters, in addition to monthly splits, we could add four more: individual numbers for Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and the rest of the week. Today, I present the first step towards achieving that goal.

Below, I have calculated how fifteen junior hitters -- considered by some to be the best 15 in the country -- have performed on the weekend series' opening night. If a series started on Thursday, I chose that night. But, nine times out of ten, it simply meant combing through Friday game logs. These numbers, ideally, should tell us how hitters do against some of their best competition.

However, as with many splits, multiple caveats apply. First, I want to stress that I'm not presenting how Evan Longoria did against the best 13 pitchers he's faced. Rather, we're computing how he did against the best pitchers from the 13 teams that Long Beach State has faced on the weekends. Without a doubt, the Saturday Texas starter (Kyle McCulloch) is better than the UC Irvine Friday pitcher. But on Fridays, UC Irvine should be at their best. Other caveats include that this stat screams sample-size, and that due to being done by hand, it might not be perfect. In the cases where it's not perfect, I can promise that it's close.

So, onto the numbers. Again, below is the performance of 15 highly projected Junior hitters on Friday nights, ranked by OPS:

The most noteworthy mitigating factor in regards to this split is schedule strength. The chart's OPS leader, Pittsburgh 2B Jim Negrych, is a prime example of this, facing a weak Big East schedule. The best pitchers that Negrych has faced on Friday nights this year are David Price -- a great LHP from Vanderbilt -- and Jeff Samardzija, the overrated Norte Dame WR/SP. On the other hand, Drew Stubbs has faced a very hard slate of pitchers, thanks to Texas' tough schedule. Stubbs' 2006 competition has included four pitchers (Butler, Reynolds, Hughes, Chamberlain) that will likely be drafted in the '06 first round. Generally the level of competition is fairly even across the board, but it's important to note that it could have an affect on the final totals.

A few other thoughts that the above table produces...

Oh, what a difference a month can make. And in the minor leagues, few months have a larger effect on perception than April. Just a year ago, we were wondering what exactly early season success stories like Billy Butler, Brandon Wood and Gio Gonzalez really meant. But, April can also have the opposite fact. While the first month did shed the light on a lot of prospects that would break out, we also saw big early season numbers from Hayden Penn, J.D. Martin and others who would not follow through.

Without question, I will at season's end denounce April statistics for numerous players, citing what they did from May 1 onward. Simply put, it's difficult to expect teenagers to come prepared for one of their first professional seasons. How you finish is always more important than how you start.

That said, we must give credit where credit is due. In past year's, I have revised my prospect rankings following April, an article I decided not to write this year. Instead, I wanted to look at a group of players that did not make it in my winter top 75 prospects, but likely would if I made the list today. Currently, there are nineteen players from my top 75 in the Major Leagues, so I have chosen nineteen early success stories that have boosted my impressions of the prospect.

Sample size caveats still apply in all of these cases, but pretty soon, we are going to have to accept breakouts from the below players to be real. Right now, I believe in the below nineteen players enough to call them top 75 prospects at this moment.

Nick Adenhart, 19, Los Angeles Angels (Low-A), SP
Numbers= 2.12 ERA, 22 H / 29.2 IP, 30 K / 8 BB, 1 HR

The poster boy of the Angels' newest draft strategy, Adenhart fell hard in the 2004 draft when it was discovered his elbow needed Tommy John surgery. Prepared to enroll in at the University of North Carolina, Adenhart was given a surprise when the Angels drafted him late with a high bonus proposal. After spending much of 2005 rehabbing his elbow, Adenhart gradually grew stronger as the short season went on. This year the power right-hander has come out strong, making the Angels gamble look good. I'm a bit worried how Adenhart's flyball tendencies will hold up when he is eventually promoted to Rancho Cucamonga, but he'll always have the ability to miss bats.

Ryan Braun, 22, Milwaukee Brewers (High-A), 3B
Numbers= .292/.353/.494, 8 BB / 20 K, 8/10 SB in 89 AB

The first three weeks of the season Ryan Braun was hitting, but mostly for singles. While Braun had a high batting average, many wondered where the power had gone for the former Hurricane slugger. Sure enough, Braun caught fire at the end of the month, and has three home runs in the past 10 days. The best number thus far is the eight steals that Braun has grabbed, he's been a good baserunner since college. Braun's peripheral statistics have me a bit worried, but I think there is power in the fourth overall pick's future.

Reid Brignac, 20, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (High-A), SS
Numbers= .358/.411/.537, 9 BB / 17 K, 3/5 SB in 95 AB

Many of the concerns that detracted from Brignac's resume in 2005 are being rectified this season. We have already seen Brignac become a more patient hitter at the plate, and he's also made better contact this season. While his numbers are, without question, boosted by the league, Brignac has been consistently getting on base. If anything, his only inconsistency has been power, as his slugging percentage has suffered a bit since an early season, three-HR game. My biggest worry is that Brignac now has 10 errors, with a posititon change likely in his future. At least he's proving to have the bat needed for the move down the defensive spectrum.

Jay Bruce, 19, Cincinnati Reds (Low-A), OF
Numbers= .286/.333/.516, 8 BB / 17 K, 3/6 SB in 91 AB

The Midwest League is now home to four prep outfield choices from the 2005 first round, and no player in the group had a more consistent April than Bruce. A toolsy player that made a late run up draft boards, I had thought the learning curve would be slow on a player like Bruce. However, Jay has taken to A-ball quite well, showing sound -- if unspectacular -- statistics across the board. His power profiles better than any other trait and this point, and his extra-base hit numbers is the number to watch this season.

Wade Davis, 19, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Low-A), SP
Numbers= 0.67 ERA, 13 H / 26.2 IP, 40 K / 13 BB, 0 HR

At this point, Davis is taking the Anibal Sanchez breakout path, showing validity in dominant short-season numbers. After pitching so well in limited action last year, Davis became a prominent breakout candidate touted by both Baseball America and John Sickels. Kudos to them, as Davis has been as impressive as any minor league starter. Control is the only problem that Davis currently has, as his hellacious stuff has produced otherwise great peripheral statistics. A promotion to the Cal League would do Davis well at this point, as he must be shown that at some point, walks will come back to hurt you.

Brandon Erbe, 18, Baltimore Orioles (Low-A), SP
Numbers= 2.25 ERA, 14 H / 20.0 IP, 26 K / 1 BB, 1 HR

Control is hardly a problem for Erbe, who brought that strength to the table when he was drafted last June. Shortly after being drafted, however, his stuff improved and Erbe has taken off. In fact, I believe that if the draft was re-held today, Erbe would be the first prep pitcher off the board. Erbe rarely hurts himself on the mound, and right now, there hasn't been a minor league hitter that could touch him.

Matt Garza, 22, Minnesota Twins (High-A), SP
Numbers= 0.74 ERA, 15 H / 24.1 IP, 34 K / 6 BB, 1 HR

After a very lackluster start to his collegiate career, Garza blossomed as a junior, earning a first round selection with a good spring at Fresno State. Garza has been great in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League so far, with no real glitches to speak of. As Glen Perkins found out a year ago, the move from Fort Myers to New Britain is a big one, and it will be hard to judge Garza as a prospect until his promotion. Given a few more sensational starts, and the Twins will have no choice but to challenge Garza in the Eastern League.

Matt Kemp, 21, Los Angeles Dodgers (AA), OF
Numbers= .337/.402/.604, 9 BB / 17 K, 4/5 SB in 101 AB

We wondered what role the hitter-friendly Vero Beach stadium had on Kemp's numbers, and if his poor Spring Training would continue into the season. Kemp has given strong answers to both questions this season, proving himself as a prospect. Kemp is just such an intriguing prospect right now, possessing every tool imaginable. He has shown great power so far this spring, to go with good baserunning, enough patience and his usual good defense. With all the Dodger talent in front of him, Kemp will likely stay in Jacksonville for some time.

Radhames Liz, 23, Baltimore Orioles (High-A), SP
Numbers= 1.35 ERA, 9 H / 20.0 IP, 39 K / 8 BB, 0 HR

When combining Liz' 2005 and current numbers, the Oriole right-hander has 176 strikeouts in 114.1 innings. He has allowed just 78 hits. While I'm not crazy about Liz' age relative to his competition, continued success speaks highly of his stuff. Like Garza, we are probably a few months from being about to properly evaluate Liz, but at this point, it's hard to criticize. Control is really the only number to complain about at this point.

Chuck Lofgren, 20, Cleveland Indians (High-A), SP
Numbers= 1.33 ERA, 17 H / 20.1 IP, 20 K / 5 BB, 0 HR

One of the final players to make this list, Lofgren is one that I really thought would take off in 2006. Extremely athletic with budding stuff, Lofgren has been solid this season, but his numbers are far less gaudy than other prospects. Chuck should be relatively consistent this whole season, and the Indians would be best to let him spend most of the season in the Carolina League. Lofgren has all the makings of a future stud, but we must remember that he is still relatively raw on the mound at this point.

Fernando Martinez, 17, New York Mets (Low-A), OF
Numbers= .338/.416/.519, 9 BB / 13 K, 3/4 SB in 77 AB

My favorite story of April. Martinez entered the year an afterthought compared to the other young teenage prospects in the South Atlantic League, Elvis Andrus and Jose Tabata. Martinez obviously entered the year with a chip on his shoulder, and has since exploded onto the Met prospect scene. The young phenom has shown good patience, plus speed, and fantastic power potential at this point. The Mets will be very conservative with Martinez' handling, as they should. Once Mike Pelfrey hits the Majors, he's one of the Mets only real prospects.

Cameron Maybin, 19, Detroit Tigers (Low-A), CF
Numbers= .317/.394/.524, 9 BB / 26 K, 4/5 SB in 82 AB

I was surprised last June when Maybin fell as far as he did, believing the North Carolina outfielder was worthy of a top five selection. And while Maybin's overall numbers look good this year, he has really proven to be quite raw in the earlygoing. Maybin's contact skills have proven to be entirely lacking, his average only high thanks to a .400+ BABIP. Furthermore, the majority of Maybin's power has been the result of four triples. His speed and power potential are still very intriguing, but Maybin must show a better propensity for contact as the year goes on.

Andrew McCutchen, 19, Pittsburgh Pirates (Low-A), CF
Numbers= .344/.402/.505, 9 BB / 13 K, 2/4 SB in 93 AB

The Pirates had locked themselves into drafting McCutchen very early last season, falling in love with his future potential atop a lineup. The idea still must have the Pittsburgh brass salivating, as McCutchen has shown great bat control and plus patience in the early going. So far, I'm most surprised with McCutchen's lack of activity on the bases, only four attempts, and only two successful steals. While he is proving to be very adept at the plate, McCutchen's leadoff credentials would be aided if he proved to be a more dangerous threat on the bases.

Mike Pelfrey, 22, New York Mets (A+/AA), SP
Numbers= 1.30 ERA, 20 H / 27.2 IP, 34 K / 4 BB, 1 HR

It didn't take long for the Mets to realize that starting Pelfrey in the Florida State League had been too conservative. Like Cole Hamels, Pelfrey cut through the FSL with ease, transitioning to pro baseball without missing a step. Pelfrey's great control in April was a very good surprise, and really means that Pelfrey's ceiling is higher than any other pitcher on this list. At this point I expect Pelfrey to make his debut (with Alay Soler) in September, providing Mets fans with a lot of excitement for 2007.

Hunter Pence, 23, Houston Astros (AA), OF
Numbers= .340/.395/.621, 10 BB / 18 K, 4/5 SB in 103 AB

At some point we need to just realize that certain contextual factors just aren't too important. Pence's age and his odd-looking swing have both been criticized in the past, but Pence continues to produce with fantastic results. Pence has done a bit of everything this year, but his power display in the Texas League should signal a lot to the Astros' brass. While both Jason Lane and Wily Taveras are likely locked into future spaces in the Astros outfield, Pence has shown the power necessary to make it in left field.

Colby Rasmus, 19, St. Louis Cardinals (Low-A), CF
Numbers= .298/.348/.481, 8 BB / 23 K, 7/8 SB in 104 AB

Again, because it bears repeating. In the first seven games of the season, Rasmus went 2-for-28 with zero extra base hits. We were worried he needed a demotion to short-season ball. But the results since then have been fantastic, including a .382 batting average and .632 slugging percentage. Colby could be showing better patience and contact skills, but everything else -- including baserunning -- has been sensational. Much better prospect than his numbers indicate at this point.

Nolan Reimold, 22, Baltimore Orioles (High-A), OF
Numbers= .304/.402/.544, 11 BB / 21 K, 5/8 SB in 79 AB

Recent changes in the Orioles scouting department are sure paying off, huh? While Brandon Snyder is slowly progressing in low-A, the Orioles had other huge draft successes in Reimold and Erbe. With Nick Markakis graduated to the Majors, Reimold becomes the best outfielder in a system that includes Val Majewski and Jeff Fiorentino. Reimold can do a bit of everything, with great patience, power and speed. Like many players on this list, his largest flaw has been an overadundance of strikeouts. He'll finish the year in AA.

Troy Tulowitzki, 21, Colorado Rockies (AA), SS
Numbers= .342/.404/.557, 5 BB / 18 K, 2/3 SB in 79 AB

It has been a very odd season for Tulo this year, I think. Overall, his numbers look great, Tulowitzki is hitting in an environment that very few of his draft-mates have even been assigned to. But when digging deeper, Tulowitzki's peripheral numbers look far worse than his .961 OPS. Besides the 18 strikeouts, Tulowitzki has drawn just 5 walks and hit only 2 non-2B extra-base hits. Now we know gap power turns to home run power in Coors Field, so it isn't too concerning. The Rockies should really begin giving Clint Barmes grounders at second base, because Tulowitzki is a matter of months, if that, away.

Justin Upton, 18, Arizona Diamondbacks (Low-A), CF
Numbers= .317/.404/.463, 5 BB / 6 K, 3/5 SB in 41 AB

I absolutely couldn't stand to miss Upton's recent swing through the heartland of the Midwest League. Unfortunately, I chose to grab his game against Cedar Rapids on Monday, missing his first professional home run by 24 hours. Upton's 1-for-4 performance wasn't anything to write home about, his lone hit a good piece of hitting, an opposite field bloop single. Upton proved raw on the basepaths and in the field, but also showed enough speed to have sensational potential in both. Upton's body is so developed at this point, he really could hit the Majors before turning 20. Without a doubt, a top ten prospect at this point.

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Corner Houston Texans owner Bob McNair today, and I have a hunch that he would validate the beliefs of many college football fans: Reggie Bush is a special, the special, talent. From a strict football standpoint, most talent evaluators could (and would) tell you that Bush is far superior to Saturday's top pick, Mario Williams.

But as McNair can now attest, professional sports are not just about on-the-field ability. Sports are a blend of talent and money; the bottom line overrides all else.

In 2003, baseball scouts were divided on which Golden Spikes finalist was the draft's best talent - Stephen Drew or Jered Weaver. Both were thought to be fantastic prospects, but a red flag on each resume caused draft day drops. Scott Boras. Swerving away from the Boras route, San Diego Padre ownership ordered GM Kevin Towers to find a cheaper alternative with the top pick. Towers signed a pre-draft deal with high school SS Matt Bush.

We can only hope that the Houston Texans avoid the fate of the Padres, who endured a .555 OPS from their $3 million bonus baby in his first professional season. No matter how Williams fares, pundits will always point to (and criticize) the Texans decision to value the accounting department over their scouts.

Baseball's upcoming June draft offers no special prospect like Reggie Bush. You've already heard that this crop isn't quite up to par. A player Bush's caliber, generational, was taken first in 2005. Justin Upton, a player that succeeds in all aspects of the game, is similar to the 2005 Heisman Trophy Winner.

But while no player in the 2006 baseball crop compares to Bush, other examples can be found that are similar. After sitting through two days of NFL draft coverage, I came up with a dozen similar options between the two drafts. Powered by the hope that baseball's draft coverage starts to head in the direction of the pigskin...

From Big Time Success to Big Time Volatility
Football - Vince Young; Baseball - Tim Lincecum

Wonderlic. Release. Motion. Reading defenses. All these flaws and more have been associated with Vince Young since he heroically led the Texas Longhorns to a Rose Bowl upset. Having nothing left to prove at the college level, Young will enter the NFL forced to reverse the beliefs of many that say his style can't succeed at the pro level. While so much has been criticized, the Titans did not reach by choosing Young, who packs a pretty fantastic punch given his athletic ability and deep ball skills. If his flaws can be corrected, he has All-Star potential.

In many ways, Tim Lincecum is more similar to Matt Leinart than Young. Like Leinart, Lincecum chose to return to college to prove people wrong. Like Leinart, he has done it, and may top the USC southpaw by winning Player of the Year. But Lincecum's similarities to Young are evident by the evaluations associated with the Huskie right-hander. Too short. Violent delivery. Overworked. No one doubts his fastball-curve combination -- much like no one questions Vince's ability to scramble -- but there is more to success than two good pitches.

Steady and Solid from the Leadership Position
Football - A.J. Hawk; Baseball - Evan Longoria

Many people wonder what the Packers would have done if Mario Williams had slipped to the fifth pick. Could they pass up a freakish athlete like Williams for the player they had targeted all along, Hawk? The former Buckeye hardly offers the size, strength and speed of many of his first round counterparts, but makes up for it in results. He was truly the nation's best linebacker and the leader of the Ohio State defense. He is a sure player that works hard, one that will step into Green Bay right away, but doesn't have the spectacular ceiling that some top ten picks possess.

Just as the linebacking core is expected to lead the defense, Evan Longoria's pro position (shortstop) commands respect. After years at other infield positions, Longoria will move to short in the pros to maximize his output versus his peers. Widely considered the top position prospect in the draft, Longoria will likely never hit more than 20-25 home runs, or has little chance to win a batting title. But like fellow Dirtbag Troy Tulowitzki, Longoria will be able to get to AA quickly, and should produce in the minor leagues.

Sears Tower Ceiling with a High Basement
Football - Vernon Davis; Baseball - Brandon Morrow

Davis is a big tight end with a huge body, good hands, and a 4.38 time in the 40. Morrow is a good-sized pitcher with a 99 mph fastball and devastating splitter. Davis has the potential to be a perennial Pro Bowler at the tight end position, Morrow is a third pitch away from being an innings-eating ace. If all else fails, Morrow will become a reliever -- and likely a good one -- while Davis should never be worse than a mid-level starter.

The two fit well, but if truth be told, Davis projects better in the NFL than Morrow does in the Majors. Davis has the total package, while Morrow might project to. He still doesn't have a third pitch, and his control is erratic at best. While Davis will be favored by many to win Rookie of the Year and help turn Alex Smith's career around, Morrow will have a lot of work to do to validate his selection.

What a Difference Two Months Can Make in Millions
Football - Donte Whitner; Baseball - Clayton Kershaw

Many are already claiming that the Buffalo Bills selection of Donte Whitner is the draft's biggest reach. Why not trade down and draft Whitner in a lower slot, where many projected him to go? Criticize all you'd like, but at the end of the day, no one helped their draft stock since the Rose Bowl more than Whitner, once considered a fringe first rounder. A good athlete from a big program, Whitner rose to the top of the safety class, depending upon what position you project Michael Huff to. He now will spend the next few years of his life trying to prove he warranted the selection.

Pitching has been hailed as the 2006 draft's strength for almost an entire year now. We always knew the college crop was loaded, but people also loved some of the talent that a few high school arms offered - Colten Williams or Jordan Walden. But while many of the high school arms have been just OK this spring, Clayton Kershaw has worked his way up draft boards, and could be the first prep pitcher selected. Scouts love the southpaw's size, his arsenal, his consistency. But once he is drafted in the first round come June, people will question whether Kershaw's spring warrants seven figures.

When Size Matters Most
Football - Haloti Ngata; Baseball - Dellin Betances

Ray Lewis has been calling for Ngata's selection all spring, salivating at the possibility of having a big body in front of him for the first time since the Sam Adams / Tony Siragusa duo. Ngata will surely command double teams at times thanks to his giant, 338-pound frame. He can thank his weight for his high selection, just as Betances will be able to thank his height in June. Betances, a Brooklyn right-hander with plus velocity, is loved by scouts. They have all seen the three pitch arsenal before, but Betances stands out because of a 6-9 frame that offers room to fill out. You can bet that on draft day, some scouting director will be salivating just as Lewis did a month and a half before.

With Injury Come Doubts
Football - LenDale White; Baseball - Dallas Buck

Once nearly guaranteed of becoming a first round pick, a horrible spring led to LenDale White's drop to the middle of the second round. Character issues were raised, and questions about his hamstring and work ethic surfaced to lead to White's freefall down draft boards. Still, the Tennessee Titans were confident in their selection of White, holding the belief that at full strength, they found a bargain in the second. Dallas Buck was once named by Peter Gammons as a possible top pick, but decreased velocity and a strained shoulder ligament see his stock falling. Buck, like White, has produced on the field, but it likely won't be enough for him to salvage a good selection.

Bringing the Punch, On and Off
Football - Ernie Sims; Baseball - Kyle Drabek

Receivers going across the middle of the field feared their lives in Tallahassee this past fall, just as Texas hitters currently are intimidated by Drabek. Sims is a sure tackler with great ability on the football field. Drabek has the pedigree and stuff to be seen by many as the top prep prospect in the draft. But in both cases, character issues come as red flags. Sims' stock wasn't effected by his character issues, which are like Drabek's, generally considered minor. Kyle will be considered as high as fourth overall, so for 45 more days, he'll have to continue to invoke fear in those that attempt to hit against him.

The Safe, Strong Route
Football - D'Brickashaw Ferguson; Baseball - Matt LaPorta

Many Jets fans are wondering why their team passed on former Heisman winner Matt Leinart for an offensive lineman. And certainly, in June, the idea of drafting a college first baseman won't be universally loved. But in both instances, it's a safe pick. Ferguson will likely be starting in the first week of the season, his college career prepped him. It's likely that he will be the Jets best lineman. LaPorta will also rise quickly, as even a midseason injury has not hindered his fantastic power output. Pancake blocks aren't quite as sexy as the home run, but in both instances, power is the important factor in these prospects.

When You Thought He Couldn't Budge
Football - Matt Leinart; Baseball - Max Scherzer

After returning to USC, Leinart was favored to repeat as college football's Heisman Trophy winner. Many college baseball fans preferred Scherzer to Andrew Miller in January to win the Golden Spikes Award. While Leinart did little to hurt his stock during the year, Scherzer's injury plagued spring has allowed multiple collegiate pitchers to pass him. Leinart's criticized for his lack of mobility and strength, Scherzer for his third pitch and inconsistency. Leinart, once considered a lack for the top three, fell to tenth on draft day. And when I thought it impossible for Scherzer to slip out of the top two, it appears his spring coupled with his ties to Scott Boras could lead to a worse slip than Leinart.

Toss-Up, All-Star or Bust
Football - Jay Cutler; Baseball - Drew Stubbs

People will never criticize Stubbs for not playing a hard enough schedule as a Texas Longhorn. Cutler has endured such criticism, apparently not earning enough wins for people in a subpar program. Stubbs has played through a national championship, and his flaws include contact issues that could forever plague his batting average. In both instances, the player's athletic ability will win out and warrant a high selection. Cutler is relatively mobile in the pocket with a fantastic arm, Stubbs plays better defense than most big league centerfielders. Both players could cause a lot of money to be flushed down the toilet, but in both instances, the potential is too good to pass up on.

Going Beyond Guns and Watches
Football - Chad Jackson; Baseball - Jordan Walden

No one ran a faster 40 at the combine than Chad Jackson. In the winter, Walden often threw the fastest pitch at a showcase. However, neither number can overshadow flaws. Jackson, considered by some the top WR in the draft, fell from the first round despite his speed-size combination. Walden, once considered a better bet than Kershaw or Drabek, could see control issues push him to the first round's back end. Scouts understand that track and velocity abilities don't always translate to success, and few players are hurt more by this principle than Jackson and Walden.

Making Coach Proud - A Team Effort
Football - N.C. State Defensive Line; Baseball - UNC Pitching Staff

Not many football programs can watch three lineman drafted in the first round following a disappointing season. After spending a season hovering around .500, the Wolfpack had Mario Williams, Manny Lawson and John McCargo all taken in the first round. North Carolina won't have the luck to have all three of their aces taken so high, but Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard are both first round talents. Miller, like Williams, offers a potential that validates a first overall selection. Bard and Lawson are both inconsistent, and both flash All-Star skills. McCargo is undoubtedly a better prospect than the likes of Robert Woodard or Jonathan Hovis, but at least the latter two can boast a successful collegiate career.

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Apologists will blame Elijah Dukes. Or the Devil Rays front office. Or a bad call by a replacement ump. But simply put, there is no excuse. Delmon Young's gaffe on Wednesday was as embarrassing, immature and irresponsible an action as a twenty year old can produce.

For those unaware, following a strikeout against Jon Lester in Pawtucket on Wednesday, Delmon Young argued strikes and balls with the umpire. This was no surprising act for a phenom suspended a year ago for bumping an umpire in a similar situation. After jawing and standing in the batter's box for too long following his strikeout, the umpire justifiably ejected Young. Delmon, then walking towards the Durham Bulls' bench, threw his bat, hitting the ump across the chest. Video is at MILB.com.

Young is now suspended indefinitely, deserving of a ten-game suspension. The move highlights the belief that Young's largest weakness as a prospect, and he doesn't have many, is a lack of maturity. And without question, this is a problem more important than numbers-crunchers will believe. Young will enter 2007 with high expectations, a blue-chip prospect starting in the Majors at the age of 21. A lack of poise could certainly lead to a bad year.

Prior to his outburst, Young was in the midst of an odd season. Lauded for his power projectability, Delmon has now played 21 games without a home run. In fact, the former top overall draft pick has just four extra-base hits and a .392 slugging percentage through 79 at-bats. Instead, he's showing the skillset of a leadoff hitter, showing great contact skills -- a .329 average and low 13.9 K% -- and good baserunning (12/13 SB).

Currently, the Devil Rays are receiving a line of .240/.293/.480 from right field. Now, a team already patient with their prospects will (in all likelihood) push back the timetable for their best youngster. Not only has Young delayed the date of his first home run in 2006, but he has also delayed his debut in Tampa.

From a talent standpoint, Delmon Young isn't far from being Major League ready. However, Delmon has now made it all-too-obvious that from a maturity standpoint, he isn't close.

Other notes from around the minor leagues...

When evaluating the resume of the minor league's hottest hitter, there appears to be two misprints: the year drafted, and that 1 before the decimal point in his current OPS. It is these surprising truths that make Marlins prospect Gaby Sanchez the intriguing story of baseball's first month.

It would appear that many prospects, in many organizations, follow the Sanchez path. Had he been drafted in 2004, the Marlins would simply have been credited with giving Gaby rest after a long, draining college season. They, borrowing philosophies from other organizations like the Cubs, would even delay the beginning of his first professional season until the short-season leagues had started. It would be following Sanchez' second Spring Training that his full season debut would take place.

But, again, Sanchez' resume contains no typos. His path has not been well-traveled. He's just making up for lost time.

Sanchez, drafted in the fourth round of 2005 from the University of Miami-Florida, brought with him two years of good experience. In both 2003 and 2004, he had played in 62 games for the Hurricanes, hitting seven home runs and boasting a .300+ batting average. After a successful summer in the Cape Cod League, Sanchez entered 2005 as an All-American candidate. His draft prospects were high, as were projections for a Miami offense boasting a heart of Sanchez, Ryan Braun and Jon Jay. Then, all of a sudden, it was gone. Sanchez then broke team rules and was subsequently suspended from game play during his junior season.

A third baseman during his college career, Sanchez' suspension luckily did not extend to practices. Given time to experiment, Sanchez did, strapping on catcher's gear and kneeling behind the plate. It was this versatility, in addition to his respected and powerful bat, that made Sanchez worthy of the Marlins' $250,000 investment.

However, even a year's worth of hard work has not sped the Marlins plans for him. Florida maintains his transition to catcher will be slow, as Sanchez manned just 29 innings behind the plate through 17 games. The results, for the most part, have been positive. In a league in which baserunners have succeeded at a 70% clip in 386 chances through Sunday, Sanchez has thrown out each of the four attempted base stealers he has faced. His throwing arm will support his move to the mask, his athleticism will not.

In fact, Gaby's athleticism will not help him at any position, besides Designated Hitter. In 2006, Sanchez has played in 12 games at first base, and already the Miami product has committed four errors. While range is not a trait emphasized in young catchers, critics maintain Sanchez' lack of agility will stunt his transition in the long run. They don't, however, question his bat.

Likely sent to the South Atlantic League for his defensive inexperience, Gaby has hit like a 22-year-old should in low-A. After collecting two hits and a home run in his season debut, Sanchez pushed forward, registering a hit in the next nine games in which he would register an at-bat. The lone exception was his fourth game, following a 5-for-5 effort on April 8, when Sanchez would walk in all four plate appearances. At the end of his torrid ten-game streak, Sanchez was hitting .465 with seven home runs and six walks. He was the minors' own Chris Shelton.

As statistics tend to do, Sanchez' numbers regressed in the last week, though his pace has hardly come to a halt. In the seven games since Sanchez hit his seventh home run, Gaby has eight hits in 25 at-bats, with just one walk and one extra-base hit. Perfection has escaped Sanchez, juggling the minors best set of statistics with multiple positions.

If nothing else, Sanchez -- along with 2005 Texas suspendee Sam LeCure (25/5 K/BB ratio in FSL) -- speaks highly to a particular draft strategy. Oftentimes, these players teach us, the nation's great programs do as much behind-the-scenes preparation as they show us on the diamond. Without the pedigree and resources that Miami and Texas provide, these two talents could still be toiling in the world of aluminum bats. One-time big program talents (Nick Adenhart fits, too) should now be considered to be worth mid-round selections and early round money, even despite a delayed pay-off.

Catching prospects, for the most part, can be twisted and contorted into three molds. First, at the top, are the blue-chip players, well-rounded and suited for a future everyday role. The minors ain't exactly chock full of 'em. Instead, there are either catchers primarily adept with the glove or the bat. The former are referred to as "future back-ups" while the defenseless are thrust down the defensive spectrum or onto the bench.

Until further notice, Sanchez is the latter, the hitter with the 1.233 OPS, four errors and a passed ball. But, unlike other failed-catcher stories (see: Ryan Garko, Craig Wilson, etc), this situation provides hope. Sanchez, just a year into his transition and perfect against opposing baserunners, has the ceiling to put the Marlins gamble in the money.

Looking at the other top catching prospects in the minors...

Disheartened by Derrek, lifted by Lind, fascinated by Francisco and more in this week's casual Friday notes column, covering everything from college to the Majors...

One of the complaints that followed the former Devil Ray front office clan -- led by Chuck Lamar -- centered around B.J. Upton. Lucky enough to draft him in 2002 (thanks to a Pirates gaffe), Upton's bat predictably tore through the minors. Conversely, his glove played as if it had a tear down the center.

Entering the season, Upton's minor league line read: .304/.396/.474, in over 1,400 at-bats. By contrast, the Devil Rays' left side hit about .290/.350/.430 last year. Fans called for Bossman's promotion. Lamar and company pointed to his fielding record: 144 errors in 367 games. Fans called for a position change. The front office went silent.

While Lou Piniella had toyed with the idea of using Upton at the hot corner in 2004, last year Upton played in Durham while no one offered a direction. When the group was fired, Tampa fans reveled in the hope that Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker would bring Upton Blueprints.

Thus far, the two have been bailed out as Upton's bat has yet to warm up. In fact, the current Devil Ray SS line (.273/.360/.386) is better than Upton's in the International League. However, his patient approach and aggressive baserunning mentality (8/9 already this season) have left Tampa fans again salivating. But again, they remain disappointed, as all the focus has been on Upton's fielding: 7 errors in his first 11 games.

Despite the pessimism that Upton's fielding record produces, no one questions that his future is bright. They do question, however, the existence of a plan.

A long-term plan like the organization that B.J.'s brother was just drafted into. A prep superstar with a scouting report more glowing than his brother, Justin Upton was drafted listed at the most ideal position on the defensive spectrum. However, when he opens his season in a few weeks, Upton will be in centerfield, where the club believes it can best utilize Upton's arm. Once magnificently wild in high school, it will now be difficult for Justin to overthrow his target.

In addition to his mistake-prone issues at shortstop, the first overall pick was also moved thanks to foresight by the D-Backs' new front office. Like Tampa with Upton, Arizona was lucky on draft day to land their blue-chip shortstop -- Stephen Drew, who fell into the teens in 2004 thanks to signability concerns. Once signed, the path to the Majors was set into action for Stephen, who began his minor league career by tearing up the California League last season.

Now playing for Tucson in the Pacific Coast League, Drew is -- like Upton -- struggling in the early going. Fans have been put off by his .269 OBP, as well as a high strikeout percentage: 12 in 48 at-bats. However, there is a sign of the player chosen to lead Arizona into the next decade -- four home runs through his first twelve games. No one expected AAA to be easy for Drew, barely removed from AA, and he has plenty of time to be acclimated.

Craig Counsell signed with Arizona in December of 2004, months after the club had drafted Drew, months before they signed him. Now, the two-year contract to which Counsell was handed appears to be the perfect length, as Stephen will be given a full season to prepare for the Major Leagues. There will be no worries about player's catching him from the minors, or some veteran taking his slot. Drew is aware that on Opening Day, 2007, the shortstop job in Phoenix is his until he loses it.

This is what the Devil Rays need to provide Upton: a clear view at his future. With that weight off Upton's shoulders, it might be then that his potential is truly untapped. Once the undeniable best shortstop prospect in the minors, the Tampa front office has allowed Upton to lose that label.

Looking at the other top shortstop prospects in the minors...

For those following the upcoming June amateur draft, 2006 has been a year of cynicism. While no one ever proclaimed the '06 class to be top-heavy, the preseason talk centered around one of the best and deepest group of pitchers in recent memory.

After a 2005 draft in which no pitcher was chosen among the first five picks, the tables were set to be turned in 2006. However, one by one, the wheels have come off for many of the junior blue chippers. Max Scherzer, injured. Daniel Bard, inconsistent. Dallas Buck, ineffective.

With the draft just about two short months away, player's stocks seem as volatile as ever. Take Ian Kennedy as an example. Early in the season, we saw the player many had labeled the safest pick in the draft, dominant through three starts.

However, what followed was a string of mediocrity, when Kennedy proved as flappable as anyone in the country. He hadn't suffered such a slump in all his years as a Trojan.

But with one start, the stock of Ian Kennedy was back. Pitching against Brandon Morrow and the rival California Bears, Kennedy went ten innings to earn his first win in quite a few outings. He showed great control and pitchability in addition to proving his valuable "innings-eater" label.

This week, unfortunately, Kennedy could not keep scouts' spirits high. Pitching in the thin air of Tempe, Arizona, Kennedy had his worst start of the year: 11 hits and 8 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Despite his best efforts, Kennedy has been pronounced a first rounder through all of 2006's trials and tribulations. But as the last two weeks have shown, single starts will have plenty of impact on how much slot money Ian is allotted.

Without question, each member of this year's draft class comes with a serious number of caveats. Here's one attempt at balancing the positives and negatives with a few players making movement on draft boards...

Tim Lincecum, RHP: Washington

If the season ended today, no player would be more deserving of the Golden Spikes trophy. It took Lincecum a while to get going, but since he has not looked back. A quick glance at his last four starts, in which he has not yielded an earned run:

During this streak, Lincecum has struck out about 45% of the hitters he has faced. He has been so dominant, in fact, that just 16.4% of these batters have reached base via a hit or walk. Once full of control problems, Lincecum has been on point since rocky starts against Santa Clara and Cal Poly.

Statistically, Lincecum is at the top of college baseball. He could very well enter an organization with the nation's most prestigious prize. In addition, he will come with maybe the most devastating two-pitch combination out there, with a mid 90s fastball and devastating curve. Everything rosy?

Not exactly. While scouts fixate on Lincecum's tiny frame, others point to a workload that would run most pitchers ragged. In four straight starts the Huskie faced more than 30 batters, during which time he also pitched in relief on short rest. The best player on an overachieving team, Lincecum is ridden very hard.

While some pitchers can thank a rubber arm for endurance, some see Lincecum as a ticking time bomb. His herky-jerky delivery, mixed with that small frame and heavy workload, seems to be a definite sign of arm trouble down the road. Once considered a third round pick because of this red flag, Lincecum's dominance has some teams hoping to play roulette.

Matt Antonelli, 3B/2B: Wake Forest

I have been tooting Antonelli's horn in this space for quite some time now, as I fell in love with his patience-athleticism combination display in the Cape last year. Even while Antonelli started to show newly-developed power this year, I said the former football and hockey star could handle a move to the middle of the diamond.

Someone was listening. After showing his offensive versatility with a move from the middle of the order to the leadoff slot, Antonelli started to show versatility in the field this past weekend. For the first time in his career, Antonelli helped the Demon Deacons at another position, playing half the series at second base. Certainly, this will not help alleviate the long-standing comparison to Edgardo Alfonzo.

Entering the season as a definite early round selection, many think his newfound power (hitting his 11th homer on Sunday) will undoubtedly lead to a first round selection. But be careful, as teams are not afraid to look at context. At his site, Boyd Nation ranks the Division I baseball teams each week, top to bottom.

According to Nation's rankings, Wake Forest has played nine top 100 teams this year, playing 18 games against the group. More of his games have been against worse teams, including six games against club's ranked below the 200 slot. Against the 11 schools he has faced ranked below 100, Antonelli has been dominant, hitting .430 with 20 of his 25 extra-base hits.

However, when up against the best his schedule has to offer, it has been a different story for Antonelli. Against the nine top 100 teams, Matt is just 17/69, good for a .246 average and .391 slugging percentage. While being able to pound Wright State and Virginia Tech is important, Antonelli has much to prove in upcoming weekend series against Florida State, Miami and Clemson. His performance should dictate whether or not Antonelli is among the top 30 picks in the draft.

Daniel Bard, RHP: North Carolina

For the first time in the school's history, the Tar Heel baseball team was recently given the #1 overall ranking by one outlet. This fact goes far to validate much of the preseason hype surrounding North Carolina, seen by many as the most top heavy baseball team in the nation.

"With those two, how could they lose?" one reader asked me, referring to the consensus top-six pitchers Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard. But while Miller has been fantastic, staying consistent and on pace to be drafted first overall, Bard is pitching his way out of the top ten. Instead of two sure-fire wins per weekend, extra onus has been placed on other Tar Heels, like shortstop Josh Horton, third ace Robert Woodard, and closer Andrew Carnigan.

This past weekend, Bard had his first quality start in five outings. By shutting out Virginia Tech (ranked #131 by Boyd), Bard put a temporary stop to his recent decline. Still, the right-hander walked five batters in 7 innings, bringing the five-start total to 20 in 26.1 innings.

Like Antonelli, Bard has struggled against the best on the Tar Heel schedule. In three consecutive starts against good programs in Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami, Bard failed to make it out of the fifth inning. He allowed eleven earned runs in 12 innings. Without the slider -- a potential plus pitch with the development of consistency -- Bard is just another hard thrower.

Early in the season, I claimed Bard had cemented his status as one of the nation's top three pitchers, and was challenging Scherzer for the second spot. Oops. Now, both Brandon Morrow and Brad Lincoln have firmly moved past Bard, who will be in a two-month race with a few other starters for the fifth college pitcher selected honor.

Greg Reynolds, RHP: Stanford

Personally, I have never understood it. OK, Brandon Morrow had an ERA over 9.00 his sophomore year. And Max Scherzer was a disaster as a freshman. I get that, but each balances those poor statistics with an upper 90s mph fastball. While Greg Reynolds possesses good stuff and great size, I have never understood the love for Reynolds.

Like Kennedy and Bard, Reynolds appeal is for his early season statistics. Through four starts, Reynolds was validating the preseason hype, especially after dominating Fresno State, striking out 11 in 7.2 innings. Since, Greg has only been impressive in one start, against the Cardinal's lone second half cookie-cutter opponent: San Jose State.

Reynolds is a mixed bag in every sense of the phrase. His delivery isn't fluid enough, and his head-bobbing wind up is blamed for control problems. But Reynolds also offers fantastic arm action to go with his size, indicating a lot of velocity and pitchability in his future.

But with first round picks, results are important. Without a better resume, Reynolds stands to have a more disappointing draft day than many are projecting.

Rounding out the Pitchers

After a bad couple months, Joba Chamberlain had a big weekend pitching against Texas A&M. With Bard and Kennedy, he has a chance at becoming the fifth college pitcher drafted. As do the two college closers -- Mark Melancon and Blair Erickson -- though that's probably too early for both. Melancon was out this past weekend, while Erickson had an unsuccessful attempt at the rotation. Sleeper Josh Butler has been too hittable for San Diego this past week, and now stands as a fringe first rounder. Jared Hughes is in the same boat, and with a big finish, teammate Andrew Carpenter could catch him. Falling is Dallas Buck, who finally this weekend had a good start (if not dominant) against a good team.

Other Big Hitters

Wes Hodges had a good weekend, and his numbers are sitting at the best point of his season. While I still question whether his power will make it to the next level, it's hard to imagine he slips past the middle of the first round. The same is true for Drew Stubbs, who will be worth the gamble for some team. He is the Tyler Greene, if more talented, of 2006. Slugger Matt LaPorta continues his all-or-nothing ways; I'm convinced Mark Hamilton (Tulane) will make for the better choice. Finally, look for some teams to snatch up sure-fire players like Chad Tracy and Shane Robinson around supplemental draft time.

College baseball's short season makes each weekend more important than the previous. In a world where Tim Lincecum is mentioned for the top overall pick thanks to four fantastic starts, expect major changes in common draft mentality before the next time I bring this up. Welcome to the world of "ping."

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This past winter, the Chicago Cubs spent $38.5 million on three overpriced relievers on the wrong side of their peaks. They traded 3 blossoming young pitchers for a center fielder with no power coming off the worst season of his career. Right field was filled with a hitter lacking in big-time power and the ability to hit southpaws. And, inevitably, their two headline starters were deemed not ready for Opening Day.

By April 3, Cubs fans were ready to cry their typical, "Wait 'Til Next Year." What's odd, however, is that this call to the future suddenly provides genuine hope: there is reason for optimism around the bend.

Despite a little pressure from the front office, Dusty Baker's opening day lineup card featured two young guns: 23-year-old shortstop Ronny Cedeno and 24-year-old left fielder Matt Murton. While young pitchers have been in and out of the North Side for the past five years, recent history has offered Wrigley Field visitors few looks at prospect position players. Corey Patterson didn't instill very much confidence.

But in his first at-bat of the new season, Murton proved me (and others) wrong, hitting a 3-run homer that would lead to the eventual Cubs victory. His three-hit effort provided a glimpse to a bright future, one with consistent contact and steady, solid power. Cedeno has built confidence with great defense, an early season five-game hitting streak, and a 4-for-4 effort on the Cubs largest stage yet.

Those that tuned into Sunday Night Baseball were also lucky enough to see a 25-and-under starter that entered the big leagues without daunting comparisons to Tom Seaver or Nolan Ryan. Sean Marshall -- on my 2005 breakout list, though he saved his big jump for Arizona, 2006 -- became the Cubs fourth starter in the most non-Dusty move of the current manager's tenure. In the face of other, older (though not by much) options, Baker opted for a southpaw with a blend of poise and upside narrowly removed from A-ball. For that, he should be commended.

A quick glance at Marshall's line (4.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 K, 1 BB) instills the image of a true rookie, producing nightmares of Steve Smyth for Cubs fans. However, Marshall was far better than his line suggests. His two-seam fastball was controlled and consistently down in the zone, producing 8 groundball outs. His cutter was a great mix, jamming right-handers, and his curve showed fantastic potential. He made one gaffe -- a belt-high fastball that Scott Rolen tatooed -- and was taken from the game too early to fix his own bases loaded mistake.

While Marshall doesn't bring with him a ceiling that matches Cubs pitching prospects of old, the poise he showed Sunday was a welcome addition to the Cubs future plans. Amidst the uncertainty of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and soon-recalled Angel Guzman are more dependable options like Carlos Zambrano and Marshall. It's a future rotation in desperate need of sixth and seventh starters on deck, without question, but it also has top-of-the-NL upside.

If Angel Guzman is the next phenom set to join the Cubs, Felix Pie is likely the most anticipated. The long-boasted young outfielder has started his AAA season magnificently, batting .500 through four games. In them, Pie has also collected two triples and three (for three) stolen bases. The 'raw' labels are starting to become replaced with 'ready'. While Juan Pierre currently stands in the way -- and his constant praise and considerable cost does pose an unnecessary burden -- one can only think Jim Hendry will provide a path for Pie when needed.

Offensively, Hendry has only become locked in to his most necessary players. As of today, both Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee will be officially in blue until Pie's superstardom. While the development of Murton, Pie and Cedeno are all essential to long-term success, Lee and Ramirez provide the team with needed certainty. Middle of the order certainty. And Michael Barrett, fast becoming a clutch-legend in the Windy City, will be in town (at the very least) through 2007.

The Cubs are also financially committed to their bullpen, in which their three game-ending veterans will be in town until the end of 2008. Relievers, however, age slowly, so the Cubs will need to mix keeping Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry healthy while finding other cheap options like they have in Mike Wuertz, Will Ohman and even Scott Williamson. This balance, between expensive and inexpensive, is essential. Despite trading away possible lenders in Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto (among others), others like Carlos Marmol and Jae-Kuk Ryu should keep the Cubs options plentiful for some time.

At the end of the season, Jim Hendry will be forced to make decisions regarding his aging mentor (Greg Maddux), steady second baseman (Todd Walker), and a slew of other role players. The idea of trading Kerry Wood, and even Mark Prior, will undoubtedly pass by his desk more than once. The temptation of big-name free agents will have the Cubs making calls.

Chicago is in a good position for the 2007 season not because of the money they have to spend. Instead, it will be Jim Hendry's ability to make meaningful miniscule additions (Murton, maybe Freddie Bynum) and to cultivate enough prospects that will leave the North Side on top for some time.

Notes From Below the Surface